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08-16-2008, 09:22 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 467
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MatchUP Observation
I'm curious about something. First some definitions.
Contender: A contender is any horse who has shown it can run competitively against today's projected first fraction. Non-contender: All others I've been looking at a lot of old races, and I've noticed that most of the winning horses matchup to the first fraction. Now granted, sometimes every horse in the race who rates a line matches up this way, but other times half the field or less meets the criteria. And there are many instances where horses who look pretty good on paper don't match up this way at all. They just don't seem to get the job done. The eventual winners might not be the horses I would pick, or they might otherwise have some strikes against them, but it seems like they match up to the first fraction a very high percentage of the time. Here is just one (of many) examples: Notice the 4 and the 8 horse don't matchup to the fist fraction. (The 1 horse won the race.) But if you look at the bottom line betting line screen the 4 and 8 are ranked very highly while the 1 is ranked much lower. (The way I look at things this should be the other way around.) Admittedly this was somewhat of a paceless race, but it doesn't seem to matter. I'm curious if any of you matchers have noticed this or if any of you RDSS (Sartin) guys think this might be relevant to your contender selection or handicapping. Steve |
08-16-2008, 09:49 AM | #2 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Hi Steve
Quote:
I take out the one the program likes least If you were to do this does the 1 horse improve its VDC rank ? and maybe it will change the blbl tier readouts plus the winner already has the #1 rank in FX in a sprint race this can be a big corollary thats really what I look at as a Sartin user thanks Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 08-16-2008 at 09:52 AM. Reason: typed 3 horse by mistake |
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08-16-2008, 10:16 AM | #3 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
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hi buddy...looking at your beaten lengths column....there is no one that actual had the lead....were there any early horses in this race...
mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 08-16-2008 at 10:18 AM. |
08-16-2008, 10:20 AM | #4 |
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Richie taught us in a paceless race if a horse finds himself on the lead by default , then throw him out...so the #3 is out...
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
08-16-2008, 11:28 AM | #5 | |
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Quote:
What I would strongly suggest is to find that thread where I talk about the paceless race and all that. Now in that thread Jim makes at least 1 if not a couple of posts about it. Read HIS thoughts a couple of times slowly. He doesn't use a lot of words but if you go through them a few times slowly you will pick up an idea of what he is saying while applying it MUCH better than I have. Maybe someone could dig that thread up for folks and post the link so Jim's feedback can be read? Steve: Great thread man!
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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08-16-2008, 11:58 AM | #6 | |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Not sure if this is thread Richie is refering to, but
The Hat Quote:
http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/sho...?t=1671&page=4
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
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08-16-2008, 12:08 PM | #7 | |
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Quote:
That is not the one I am thinking of BUT look at Hat's post #37 in the thread. Let's read what he says while looking at the pp's to see what he refers too ok? You might have just helped me Charlie because to be honest the stuff in this thread is what I stopped doing and went off on this tangent of automatically throwing out the horse I thought was gonna get the lead man. Reading Jim's words HE is definitely NOT saying that is he? Thank you. Hey this is a great thread Steve started man regarding the 1st fraction and I don't want to throw it off his focus please. Sorry Steve.
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 08-16-2008 at 12:11 PM. |
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08-16-2008, 12:13 PM | #8 | |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Quote:
Jim seems to be saying move the Presser(s) up to Early horse(s) Richie
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 08-16-2008 at 12:16 PM. |
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08-16-2008, 01:15 PM | #9 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
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just watched the race...
they went to the 1st quarter and half pretty much the same position 3-8-4-1 then the #1 blew em away at the end of the turn.. but the times were 23.2 47.4....even with the slow pace the 3 couldn't even finish 2... it was 1-8-3-7 So in paceless races do we call it an OTE and throw out the projected leader thats not used to the lead? mike
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
08-16-2008, 01:25 PM | #10 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Without seeing ALL PP's it hard to give any feedback
Turbulator has used Lines 4/5 for the #3 and this suggests #3 may be an "out of form" horse, so should it be included as a contender here???
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 08-16-2008 at 01:28 PM. |
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