to become a successful Matcher. - Pace and Cap

Charlie D · 07-21-2008, 06:07 AM

1) Completely IGNORE trainer/jockey/class/layoffs/trackbias. PERIOD

http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1628

This site is overflowing with quality advice imo

shoeless · 07-21-2008, 04:47 PM

Charlie,Completely ignoring class I feel will put you in the poorhouse.I doubt if the Hat saw a 5000 claimer with great numbers and that the match up would favor him would bet him in a stakes race.

I will give you the secret to become successful DONT USE SOFTWARE. Jeff

shoeless · 07-21-2008, 06:05 PM

Charlie,I had to go do something so I couldnt finish,ignoring trainer meet specific stats is a mistake as well.Lets face it a trainer doesnt run his horse every time on intending to win the race.Dont tell me either that it's because the match up didnt favor him because that's not true.Look at that 3 horse yesterday at Woodbine Fatal Bullet.Do you really think that on June 7th at Belmont the trainer thought that horse would win a Grade 2 stakes at 7fur.I dont think so and after that race he took him back to WO and gave him 4 works between Jun 22-and July 13th.You be wise not to completely throw out trainer stats.Jeff

Charlie D · 07-21-2008, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

Charlie,Completely ignoring class I feel will put you in the poorhouse.I doubt if the Hat saw a 5000 claimer with great numbers and that the match up would favor him would bet him in a stakes race.

I will give you the secret to become successful DONT USE SOFTWARE. Jeff

Jefff

Quote:

For example, lets say Horse A (your 5000 Claimer) ran close to a pace of 22, 45, 1,10. I'll look at ALL the past performance lines to make sure this was no fluke

Charlie D · 07-21-2008, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

.Look at that 3 horse yesterday at Woodbine Fatal Bullet.Do you really think that on June 7th at Belmont the trainer thought that horse would win a Grade 2 stakes at 7fur.I dont think so and after that race he took him back to WO and gave him 4 works between Jun 22-and July 13th.You be wise not to completely throw out trainer stats.Jeff

Fatal Bullet posted a 105 Beyer

Is that good enough to win a Grade 2 at Belmont?????

Bill V. · 07-21-2008, 07:17 PM

Hi Jeff

I'm walking into very unknown waters here ..
I have two questions

The trainer of the 1 Jason Servis has a win percent of 25%
The trainer of the 6 horse has a 31% win rate the 7 is 24%
But then here are the other trainers in the race

2- 0%
3- 9%
4- 9%
5- 2%

Your post made me think about something about
The trainer of the three horse

Is this a so - so trainer who knows he has a real good horse ??
Do all the good trainers treat all of their horses the same ??

Kind of tricky thing for me
But I'm dumb enough to think they all are trying every race

Bill

Charlie D · 07-21-2008, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Is this a so - so trainer who knows he has a real good horse ??

Bill

It could be Bill

shoeless · 07-21-2008, 07:36 PM

Bill,I see the trainer of the 3 with a 11% also the 5 the trainer is 0% because he has never started a horse at Woodbine his overall pct is 15%.You can think what you want but I have been around the paddock enough at CT over the last 40 years to see a trainer has one eye on the horse and the other on a condition book.All trainers dont treat them the same that's why some are good and others arent .Jeff

shoeless · 07-21-2008, 07:46 PM

Charlie,

The horse had won 3 in a row on Poly one at 5 fur and the other at 6 why run him 7 fur at Belmont .There is a big difference running against ALW n2x in Canada then a Grade 2 in New York.People get too hung up on numbers just because he had a 100 Beyer in Canada does not mean he will be able to compete in New York graded company.

Charlie D · 07-21-2008, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless

Charlie,

.There is a big difference running against ALW n2x in Canada then a Grade 2 in New York.People get too hung up on numbers just because he had a 100 Beyer in Canada does not mean he will be able to compete in New York graded company.

I agree with you, people do get too hung up on numbers, just like they get too hung up on class levels, trainer stats, jockey stats, track bias, daily track variants etc

It's only a dang horse race afteralll

You've put forward some interesting thoughts Jeff and hopefully others will do the same

07-21-2008, 06:07 AM	#1
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	to become a successful Matcher. 1) Completely IGNORE trainer/jockey/class/layoffs/trackbias. PERIOD http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1628 This site is overflowing with quality advice imo __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 07-21-2008 at 06:13 AM.

07-21-2008, 04:47 PM	#2
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Charlie,Completely ignoring class I feel will put you in the poorhouse.I doubt if the Hat saw a 5000 claimer with great numbers and that the match up would favor him would bet him in a stakes race. I will give you the secret to become successful DONT USE SOFTWARE. Jeff Last edited by shoeless; 07-21-2008 at 04:49 PM.

07-21-2008, 07:17 PM	#6
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	trainer Hi Jeff I'm walking into very unknown waters here .. I have two questions The trainer of the 1 Jason Servis has a win percent of 25% The trainer of the 6 horse has a 31% win rate the 7 is 24% But then here are the other trainers in the race 2- 0% 3- 9% 4- 9% 5- 2% Your post made me think about something about The trainer of the three horse Is this a so - so trainer who knows he has a real good horse ?? Do all the good trainers treat all of their horses the same ?? Kind of tricky thing for me But I'm dumb enough to think they all are trying every race Bill

07-21-2008, 06:05 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Charlie,I had to go do something so I couldnt finish,ignoring trainer meet specific stats is a mistake as well.Lets face it a trainer doesnt run his horse every time on intending to win the race.Dont tell me either that it's because the match up didnt favor him because that's not true.Look at that 3 horse yesterday at Woodbine Fatal Bullet.Do you really think that on June 7th at Belmont the trainer thought that horse would win a Grade 2 stakes at 7fur.I dont think so and after that race he took him back to WO and gave him 4 works between Jun 22-and July 13th.You be wise not to completely throw out trainer stats.Jeff

07-21-2008, 07:36 PM	#8
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Bill,I see the trainer of the 3 with a 11% also the 5 the trainer is 0% because he has never started a horse at Woodbine his overall pct is 15%.You can think what you want but I have been around the paddock enough at CT over the last 40 years to see a trainer has one eye on the horse and the other on a condition book.All trainers dont treat them the same that's why some are good and others arent .Jeff

07-21-2008, 07:46 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Charlie, The horse had won 3 in a row on Poly one at 5 fur and the other at 6 why run him 7 fur at Belmont .There is a big difference running against ALW n2x in Canada then a Grade 2 in New York.People get too hung up on numbers just because he had a 100 Beyer in Canada does not mean he will be able to compete in New York graded company.