Trainer Intent

[Bill V.]

Thanks Jeff

Things worked out real nice

Good work

[shoeless]

By looking at this race the match up would probably favor the 7 here as lone early by looking at his pp's,but by looking at his class he isnt a 16,000 horse.I think this is one of the problems of doing the match up that it doesnt take class into consideration.

[shoeless]

Bill,Thanks.Actually I had a good day for once as I hit 3 of 4 at Philly and if I didnt change my mind in the 5th it would have been 4 for 4 with winners and exactas in each.Jeff

[RichieP]

Way to go Jeff and Bill!!
Great calls man!

[Tim Y]

No matter how competent a trainer is, he/she has major bills and complaining owners to deal with all the time. There is too much Hollywood in the commonly held beliefs that these hard working men/women manipulate their horses. It is common fact that those cases are few and far between as the realities of those bills come up daily in each barn.

[shoeless]

Tim,Then please explain how come this trainer 3 different times moved his horse up to 20,000 and then dropped to 16,000 at 6 fur and won everytime.It cant just be a matter of luck.Jeff

[shoeless]

Tim,You made me realize something that it was dumb of me to post this here in the first place.Members of this site would rather look at RDSS screens and do the match up.Im not knocking them and in fact Im pleased that people like yourself dont take into consideration trainer moves.This enables me to hit 10-1 shots that should be 5-2.Jeff

[Tim Y]

Horses simply run and never ONCE read the condition book. They go head to head with their abilities, exclusive of any man-made class structure....We had a great example of that this weekend when a wonderful, LONG striding mid level claimer (a huge animal at almost 18 hands), who is in remarkably good form right now, won a huge stake at Hasting's (The Delta Colleen stakes) over a group of supposed stakes horses going wire to wire and never looked beat a step. Against the Sky will probably never grace the claimers again after that run.

If you evaluated HER proven abilities relative to the field, and not the condition book, you would discover that her runs were much better than these "stakes" horses and dictated a strong consideration for a wager.

Horses just run to their abilities. It is the HUMAN evaluation that dictates what the THEORETICAL class of said horse is.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Bill,Thanks.Actually I had a good day for once as I hit 3 of 4 at Philly and if I didnt change my mind in the 5th it would have been 4 for 4 with winners and exactas in each.Jeff

Good work Jeff

Yes Philly was nice to me too

Thanks again for this race

When you open up a race do you look for this type of trainer move
for each horse ?

[Bill V.]

Hi Jeff
What Tim says I agree with. For the most part ,and since The basic Sartin
Methodology guidelines are to do races in 20 race cycles, For me its best to let what I feel are predictive pace lines make horses contenders Either the horse has it or it does not .

I took this from Follow Up 25 page 23

Doc also talks about this in either the LV or KC seminar tapes




Your # 2 horse for me fit this idea
Line 2 is from the 16,000 race were the horse ran well Line 1 was a non comparable race at $20000
Line two produced the best LP and FX figures in a race I felt had a good chance to run with a fast early pace
so I bet it with # 3

Thanks
Bill