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Old 06-08-2021, 04:20 PM   #1
rmath
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took a page from my friends book

I was playing around with PRX today when my good friend Tim ( LT.1 ) called on skype.
We were discussing my picks in race 6 and he asked who my key horse was.
I really liked the 5 but he was bet down to 4/5.
Tim suggested that we should take a closer look at my 2nd pick the 6 who was going off at 5/1
I played the exacta with both horses because when we looked at all the corrallaries the 6 showed a lot of red.
A 1.00 wheel cost me 14.00 and when the 6 won and the 4 who was 40/1 ran 2nd the exacta returned 205.50 for a very nice profit.
If LT had not pointed out all the corrallary support on the 6 and all the short falls on my top ranked horse I would have lost this race.
Just shows that blindly playing your top horse can be very costly.
Thanks Tim for reminding me to look close at you 2nd and 3rd ranked horses.
Rmath
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Old 06-08-2021, 04:29 PM   #2
darmar
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That's a great hit Richie, Tim is just sitting back and picking off the overlays
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Old 06-08-2021, 05:41 PM   #3
Lt1
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That was a great play by you Rich. The big takeaway is just don't accept any horse blindly. Your 5 had 3 #1 rankings on the RX screen and normally would be a very tough horse. I didn't do my full capping regime and was working only with RDSS and TM pps. When we were talking I noted your 5 was only 3rd on RX3 based on my work. That prompted me to look at the BL/BL screen where it ranked last of my 5 contenders with a balance of 9. Very weak for a key horse. The 6 on the other hand ranked 4th on both RX and BL/BL. On BL/BL it ranked #1 lp and #1 hidden ,#2 CSR & VDC on the primary side. On the supplemental side it ranked #2PF3,#1TS/F3,#3 TS # LS plus #2 Fractals late and #1Fractals neutrals and for good measure was the counter energy horse going off at 5-1 vs 4/5 for the 5. Any question on which horse was the on to bet despite the 3 #1s showing on the RX creen for the fav.
Tim
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Old 06-08-2021, 06:20 PM   #4
Lt1
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Oops just noticed a typo. On the supplemental side it ranked 3rd on TPP not TS and 4th on Supp LS.
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Old 06-08-2021, 09:27 PM   #5
dlivery
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Smile 1%

1% here and 1% there equals a lot to look for when really your handicapping the favourite not win. There is that fine line we like to use.
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Old 06-14-2021, 04:30 PM   #6
rmath
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dlivery I did not understand your answer about 1%.
Would you be so kind as to explain what you meant.
Thanks

Rmath
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