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04-20-2021, 03:44 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 496
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That was probably me. I did not know you could put in a user name. I will try and change it. Thanks
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04-20-2021, 05:13 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Thanks Ted, appreciate you taking the time to do that. If we are going without cameras then I'll just do the one log in next time!
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04-20-2021, 06:59 PM | #23 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 60
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Ted, it seems you place significance in the PW%. I understand it is the ratio of place to win bets. Why is this important? Good seminar today. Looking forward to future ones.
Phil |
04-20-2021, 10:43 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Thought I would expand upon my answer as to why I didn't use the 7 in r6. The other primary reason I didn't use this horse was the according to my model the 2 dominate factors for winners[winners rank in the top 2 the most times] at 6f are CPR & VDC. The 7 ranked 5th on CPR & 4TH on VDC. Coupling that with its' weak 3rd fractions I tossed.it. Here are the lines I used on my contenders
#1 L1 #2 L3 #3 L4 #6 L4 #7 L2 Tim
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04-21-2021, 01:10 AM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,149
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Great stuff today Ted I hope you can find time to do more like this one. Thanks again
Darryl |
04-21-2021, 10:19 AM | #26 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
Thanks, |
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04-21-2021, 11:35 AM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Hi Bill. I try not to use off tracks if at all possible especially on fast tracks. I listen to folks like Brohamer, Jones etc an adopted that approach. If track is off I prefer to use fast track lines for the horses if possible and then refer to the lifetime box to see how they perform on off tracks. I find in my experience that this works well rather then rating some horses off fast tracks and others from off tracks[treats all horses the same]. I'm in no way saying not to use off tracks if one feels comfortable with doing that especially if that line is the best perceptor of the last 3.
Tim
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04-21-2021, 12:03 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Since pacelines are of primary importance here are some other things I do. First I use the BRIS pps as my primary handicapping tool. They just contain more information then TM pps. After I note the paceline the program has chosen[and I left stand] I go to the Bris pps for confirmation. I do not use lifetime best races for horses 5 & up. I also check to see if the line is out of line with what the horse usually runs. For example lets' say that the line was chosen and has a Bris speed ratting of 89. I check the rest of the lines and see it has never more than 80 in the other races I won't use that line. My cut off is 5 pts so if it has 84 or 85 showing in the pps then I may use the 89. I also check for sealed track lines which I won't use if at all possible. There are times when fast tracks are sealed when bad weather is anticipated that day. Hope that clears my paceline selections.
Tim
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04-21-2021, 12:21 PM | #29 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
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Like the way you go about picking PP'S
Jeff |
04-21-2021, 02:07 PM | #30 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Thanks Jeff.
Tim
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