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Old 04-20-2021, 03:44 PM   #21
gfnut
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That was probably me. I did not know you could put in a user name. I will try and change it. Thanks
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Old 04-20-2021, 05:13 PM   #22
DaveEdwards
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Thanks Ted, appreciate you taking the time to do that. If we are going without cameras then I'll just do the one log in next time!
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Old 04-20-2021, 06:59 PM   #23
elocutionist
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Ted, it seems you place significance in the PW%. I understand it is the ratio of place to win bets. Why is this important? Good seminar today. Looking forward to future ones.

Phil
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Old 04-20-2021, 10:43 PM   #24
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Thought I would expand upon my answer as to why I didn't use the 7 in r6. The other primary reason I didn't use this horse was the according to my model the 2 dominate factors for winners[winners rank in the top 2 the most times] at 6f are CPR & VDC. The 7 ranked 5th on CPR & 4TH on VDC. Coupling that with its' weak 3rd fractions I tossed.it. Here are the lines I used on my contenders
#1 L1
#2 L3
#3 L4
#6 L4
#7 L2
Tim
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Old 04-21-2021, 01:10 AM   #25
darmar
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Great stuff today Ted I hope you can find time to do more like this one. Thanks again
Darryl
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Old 04-21-2021, 10:19 AM   #26
Bill Lyster
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Thought I would expand upon my answer as to why I didn't use the 7 in r6. The other primary reason I didn't use this horse was the according to my model the 2 dominate factors for winners[winners rank in the top 2 the most times] at 6f are CPR & VDC. The 7 ranked 5th on CPR & 4TH on VDC. Coupling that with its' weak 3rd fractions I tossed.it. Here are the lines I used on my contenders
#1 L1
#2 L3
#3 L4
#6 L4
#7 L2
Tim
Thanks for doing that Tim, I noticed that you did not use any off track lines for any of the horses. Do you consider off track lines when the track is less than fast? Or do you see them as an outlier, especially when they are best at the distance of today's race, most probably not to be repeated?

Thanks,
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Old 04-21-2021, 11:35 AM   #27
Lt1
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Hi Bill. I try not to use off tracks if at all possible especially on fast tracks. I listen to folks like Brohamer, Jones etc an adopted that approach. If track is off I prefer to use fast track lines for the horses if possible and then refer to the lifetime box to see how they perform on off tracks. I find in my experience that this works well rather then rating some horses off fast tracks and others from off tracks[treats all horses the same]. I'm in no way saying not to use off tracks if one feels comfortable with doing that especially if that line is the best perceptor of the last 3.
Tim
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Old 04-21-2021, 12:03 PM   #28
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Since pacelines are of primary importance here are some other things I do. First I use the BRIS pps as my primary handicapping tool. They just contain more information then TM pps. After I note the paceline the program has chosen[and I left stand] I go to the Bris pps for confirmation. I do not use lifetime best races for horses 5 & up. I also check to see if the line is out of line with what the horse usually runs. For example lets' say that the line was chosen and has a Bris speed ratting of 89. I check the rest of the lines and see it has never more than 80 in the other races I won't use that line. My cut off is 5 pts so if it has 84 or 85 showing in the pps then I may use the 89. I also check for sealed track lines which I won't use if at all possible. There are times when fast tracks are sealed when bad weather is anticipated that day. Hope that clears my paceline selections.
Tim
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Old 04-21-2021, 12:21 PM   #29
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Like the way you go about picking PP'S

Jeff
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Old 04-21-2021, 02:07 PM   #30
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Thanks Jeff.
Tim
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