Kentucky Oaks 2021 - A False Favorite?

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I know the Oaks always plays second fiddle to the Derby, and I see potential value in handicapping this race. How are you guys approaching to handicapping this race? Malathaat is installed as the favorite for the race, and I am unsure how to approach with selecting the correct line.

When I look more closely at things, it appears to me that she [Malathaat] took advantage of abnormally-fast tracks in her last two outings, which makes her appear better on paper. I'm tempted to use the third line, but it seems like it would penalize her down to being non-contentious. The best perceptor chooses the first line. What say you? Furthermore, depending on your line selection, the race appears totally void of E, EP, and P types. Will this mean the pace is going to be non-existent?

[Mitch44]

This is an easy one; I would use line 1. L 1 is the best Preceptor, within 1 F of todays distance.
L2 is on an off track, I don't use off track lines even when the track is off . This line (L2)does give you some valuable information in that she can get the distance.

L3 qualifies but is not the best Preceptor. There is a huge difference of Preceptor and Total Energy between lines 1 & 3

L4 is a Maiden line which should never be used in a graded race unless its the only available line a horses has.

As far as variants: yes there is a difference between these two of 18 however if your setting are set at 50% and -15 & +15 the program will adjust these two differences without a problem. TRUST THE PROGRAM!!

You really should be concerned with variants that are extremely high or low or over that -15 and above the +15. That's where they become abnormal. I also compare variants to all the other contenders to see if it abnormal to each other.
Lets say this -12 is way out of line with the rest, than I may look for a different line.

In this case this is for 3 yr. old's, this time of the year there is limited data or races in their PP's so line 1 is correct. 3 year old's will be progressing up until Oct. so normally the correct line for a 3 year old will be closer to the top of its PP's.

The key to selecting lines are these:
1. Proper setting in program:
a.50 % of any variant
b. -15 & +15 Min. & Max. to adjust any one line

2. Use the best Preceptor of the last 3 at a similar distance (within 1 F) and surface.
a. Fast line for dirt unless only off lines are available.

b. Turf lines for turf unless not available, if unavailable
1st choice all weather lines, if unavailable Sly and off track lines, very last choice would be a dirt fast line.

3. Verify all lines selected by the program for concurrence.

4. Treat all horses the same always when it comes to selecting lines.

Mitch44

[darmar]

Mitch this is excellent line selection parameters, new or inexperienced players will be well served by employing this regime in EACH & EVERY RACE they handicap!
Darryl

[Mitch44]

Thanks Darryl, yes they will be well served.


I've been expounding on Sartin guidelines for pace line selection and the best Perceptor for the last 4 or 5 years. I believe at this point most get the power of the Perceptor however there are those that refuse to adapt. That's good through because we need their money in the pools to win.

There are a few other nuances I use but that pretty much covers it like a blanket. Adapt and overcome or perish.

Mitch44