the underneathies

[Tim Y]

There is a single source at this game for low investment large potential return and that is the realm of the exotic. From my long long term records, that game is the ONLY arena that is going to show long term positive returns on investment. I have and always will, eschew horizontal exotics (don't know closing odds, cannot see the horse that you bet beforehand, late scratches give you the post time favorite, etc.)...so that leaves the vertical variety where there is ONE race, ONE pace, at a single distance etc etc.

Now, from what we know about race pace dynamics, any contest is filled with the pace setters, pressers and the disconnected late movers (have NO effect on the pace and have to be lucky to not get into traffic blockage). ANY evaluation of PREDICTABLE ORDER has to be dismissed going in for all but the most dominant race situations which are both in the minority and potentially NO worth a wager. Once the contenders are inside the 1/8th pole, the order eventually at the wire is random.

So we need a serious evaluation of the two groups: pace horses and closers in a balanced way (although for my money earliers make up the bulk of exotic finishers on the main track).

Group the pacesetters together in one group, then the movers from the 2nd call to the wire group. Rank them and you have the nidus of the wager. If any horse is really dominant in either group, it can be used as a KEY.

An interesting aside: IF you find a DOMINANT horse ranked by F1 that is NOT in the early group (usually needs 2nd fraction support to make it in that group), hold it in reserve. I call this one the "odd man out" and add to the UNDERSIDE of the vertical within the group you have chosen as the early.

Nothing is full proof but it gets some very nice prices in fields of at least 7 or more.

[Tim Y]

Was rambling along well at Woodbine but the final two weeks of any meeting, the influx of a large number of Fort Erie horses, the final chances of many to dump horse (BIG drops in class) so as not to have to feed and care for a marginal animal all Winter, and the colder weather, interferes with logic. Still some big ones hit, but the bankroll has to be larger than normal to overcome the dry spells. I think that latter phrase is as much a killer for most players as having incorrect analysis of a course. As my great mentor in Vancouver would be telling me all the time: "You can't win with scared money."

If you play this track for any time, you know to STAY AWAY from Wednesday night programs. More chalk than a first grade teacher uses per day.

A good source of information, especially at track you may not regularly play is the Brisnet AT A GLANCE..

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=328

Sample shown is Finger Lakes (a track I visited, nice... but there were more employees in attendance there than players, and with a favorite hit rate of 44%, one of the highest in North America, it seems a place to stay far away from). That, plus an average of about 6 horses per race, does not spread the betting widely enough to get much of a price.

Here is an intriguing course to investigate and I am looking into it for next season; Laurel
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=337
Look at the favorites hit rate here:27%.. This one has prices, field size and the potential for larger payoffs. Well worth the effort possibly.

[Lt1]

Hi Tim. Finger Lakes like any other track has periods where the favorite wins a majority of races, however, even then you can still make money by looking at the exotic payoffs. Like you have stated in the past a strong fav can be keyed in the exotic. I've also seen good paying winners in those 6 horse field. I also agree that the closing week of meets can be lucrative. Today for example I played FL. There were 10 races with full fields. I had a $31 winner, a $78dd, and 3 exs for $100,$105.50 and $82. I remember period years ago at Aqu where low paying favs were winning. I wrote to Doc about how to handle such times. Doc responded and also published the answer in the FU along with a response from The Handicapper on how he handled it. Since then I altered my approach in handling these periods with pretty good results. Bottom line, imo, money can be made at smaller tracks if one has the patience to wait for the right opportunity.
Tim G

[Lt1]

For those interested in reading how the Capper responded to my question to Doc it is in FU75 page 21. Shane Sartin also posted in FU 46 pg 49 on profiting in short fields.
Tim G