the underneathies - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 11-26-2016, 10:30 AM

There is a single source at this game for low investment large potential return and that is the realm of the exotic. From my long long term records, that game is the ONLY arena that is going to show long term positive returns on investment. I have and always will, eschew horizontal exotics (don't know closing odds, cannot see the horse that you bet beforehand, late scratches give you the post time favorite, etc.)...so that leaves the vertical variety where there is ONE race, ONE pace, at a single distance etc etc.

Now, from what we know about race pace dynamics, any contest is filled with the pace setters, pressers and the disconnected late movers (have NO effect on the pace and have to be lucky to not get into traffic blockage). ANY evaluation of PREDICTABLE ORDER has to be dismissed going in for all but the most dominant race situations which are both in the minority and potentially NO worth a wager. Once the contenders are inside the 1/8th pole, the order eventually at the wire is random.

So we need a serious evaluation of the two groups: pace horses and closers in a balanced way (although for my money earliers make up the bulk of exotic finishers on the main track).

Group the pacesetters together in one group, then the movers from the 2nd call to the wire group. Rank them and you have the nidus of the wager. If any horse is really dominant in either group, it can be used as a KEY.

An interesting aside: IF you find a DOMINANT horse ranked by F1 that is NOT in the early group (usually needs 2nd fraction support to make it in that group), hold it in reserve. I call this one the "odd man out" and add to the UNDERSIDE of the vertical within the group you have chosen as the early.

Nothing is full proof but it gets some very nice prices in fields of at least 7 or more.

11-26-2016, 10:30 AM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	the underneathies There is a single source at this game for low investment large potential return and that is the realm of the exotic. From my long long term records, that game is the ONLY arena that is going to show long term positive returns on investment. I have and always will, eschew horizontal exotics (don't know closing odds, cannot see the horse that you bet beforehand, late scratches give you the post time favorite, etc.)...so that leaves the vertical variety where there is ONE race, ONE pace, at a single distance etc etc. Now, from what we know about race pace dynamics, any contest is filled with the pace setters, pressers and the disconnected late movers (have NO effect on the pace and have to be lucky to not get into traffic blockage). ANY evaluation of PREDICTABLE ORDER has to be dismissed going in for all but the most dominant race situations which are both in the minority and potentially NO worth a wager. Once the contenders are inside the 1/8th pole, the order eventually at the wire is random. So we need a serious evaluation of the two groups: pace horses and closers in a balanced way (although for my money earliers make up the bulk of exotic finishers on the main track). Group the pacesetters together in one group, then the movers from the 2nd call to the wire group. Rank them and you have the nidus of the wager. If any horse is really dominant in either group, it can be used as a KEY. An interesting aside: IF you find a DOMINANT horse ranked by F1 that is NOT in the early group (usually needs 2nd fraction support to make it in that group), hold it in reserve. I call this one the "odd man out" and add to the UNDERSIDE of the vertical within the group you have chosen as the early. Nothing is full proof but it gets some very nice prices in fields of at least 7 or more. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."