Double Race 11/12 at Oaklawn

[MM42]

I have been working the data for about 2 weeks now. A lot of trial and error. After a meeting with Dick today, I felt way more comfortable. I was down about 100 today with multiple seconds on some W bets and double bets. I finally found my spot to lay it in (cautiously lol). Race 11 was a guarantee with Thorpedo Anna (based on data/PPs etc). In race 12, my two horses were the 1 & 9. My initial thought was to play two $40 dollar doubles, 6/1,9 (which is my normal betting style for doubles). However, still testing the data I just used the 9. I thought the 1 was going to be a little farther back than the 9 (EP3). Why the 9? I really leaned on the RS column in this race. I noticed there was 4 horses with a E5 and above. I was expecting a fast/pressured pace (20 RS). I noticed the 9s running style was an EP6. I was hoping the 9 would stalk 3rd or 4th and close in. That is exactly what happened, 9 was 4th and then gradually came into second and finally took the lead in the stretch. This horse was also the 2nd ranked late NP horse. From a handicapping perspective, I also liked this race was second off layoff.

6/9 $40 double x $13.70 = $548

Marc

[kahunab]

Good Job, Marc! It was fun to meet you this morning on Zoom! Great read.

Dick

[shoeless]

Marc

Not really sure off the readouts how you came up with the 9,
great job in doing so

Jeff

[MM42]

Jeff,

I completely understand. I organized the top 5 RX figures. The 9 was the 5th RX total number. I then reviewed the RS column to review each racing style. The speed number was 20 (anticipating a fast/pressured pace). Above I mention, I thought the 4 was going to be 3rd or 4th stalking with the fast pace. It came out 4th, crept up to second and took the lead in the stretch. I was also going to use the 1 but I thought it would be too far back (which ultimately happened and couldn't close in). The 9 was the swinghorse on NP and the second best late (which I was looking for). From handicapping perspective, it was second off the layoff and had some good back class. Hope that makes sense!

Marc

[shoeless]

Marc

Thank you for the explanation and very good handicapping

Jeff

[Lt1]

MM congrats on the score but I also have a question. On my version the favorite #1 ranked #5 RX with corollary support[ this remained the same whether I used my usual 100% DTV and changed pls or 50% DTV and left all pls as picked by the program and also was a key horse possibility] while the #9 was 6th with no support. On your screen shot the $1 also appears to have a higher ranking then the 9. Did you downgrade the #1 for cause>?
Tim

[MM42]

LT,

The screenshot I took I filtered by running style (that's why you see the #1 at the bottom). What I like to do is filter by top RX score and then I will filter by the running style to get an idea of how it may run. Hope that makes sense!

Marc

[darmar]

Hi Marc
First of all Congrats on your hit at Oaklawn yesterday. I capped that race 6 ways to Sunday after it was over and.couldn't get the 9 higher than 4th . Could you please post your winning ticket and your segments screenshot for more analysis.
Thanks Darryl

[Lt1]

Hi Marc. Thanks for the response but the way I see your screen shot the 9 has the lowest RX score. What am I missing?
Tim

[Jake]

Marc,

I'm curious as well here. With the exception of the pace pressure gauge moving you toward the 9 horse as the possible late choice, the rest of the screen rankings for this horse seems very anti-leverage/pace, meaning you look to be fading the best win percentages that Kahunab complied and shared. A bit confusing here.

Jake

[MM42]

All,

Thank you for the feedback/questions, as I am new to data and only two weeks in. I was under the impression that the win/place/show horses are in the top 5 RX 80% (or more) of the time (correct me if im wrong)? What I have been doing is handicapping all 5 horses (whether they are low or high). In this race, a fast/pressured pace was almost certain (RS 20, 4 E horses). I was looking for a horse that I believe would be able to stay on the pace/stalk and close in (9 was a EP6). The 9 did exactly that, 4th on the 1/4, 2nd on the 1/2 and then closed nice and easy in the stretch. The 9 was the 2nd best late on NP screen (6 was first but long layoff) and was also the swinghorse. The 9 had back class (2nd best CR on entries screen) and second off the layoff (nice work too). These were all things I considered. I did mention in my initial post, I also liked the 1 (closed, came third) but I thought he was going to be a little farther back and may not get there (E3). Not exactly sure if I can provide any more info. Attached is the ticket since it was requested. Hope this helps!

Thank you!

Marc

[darmar]

Hi Marc thanks for posting your winning ticket and Congrats on your great score. I have not gotten my head around all the nuances of pace / leverage method as of yet and probably don't have enough time left to completely embrace it either. I will just chalk this one up as ungettable for me.
Thanks
Darryl

[Jake]

All,

Thank you for the feedback/questions, as I am new to data and only two weeks in. I was under the impression that the win/place/show horses are in the top 5 RX 80% (or more) of the time (correct me if im wrong)? What I have been doing is handicapping all 5 horses (whether they are low or high). In this race, a fast/pressured pace was almost certain (RS 20, 4 E horses). I was looking for a horse that I believe would be able to stay on the pace/stalk and close in (9 was a EP6). The 9 did exactly that, 4th on the 1/4, 2nd on the 1/2 and then closed nice and easy in the stretch. The 9 was the 2nd best late on NP screen (6 was first but long layoff) and was also the swinghorse. The 9 had back class (2nd best CR on entries screen) and second off the layoff (nice work too). These were all things I considered. I did mention in my initial post, I also liked the 1 (closed, came third) but I thought he was going to be a little farther back and may not get there (E3). Not exactly sure if I can provide any more info. Attached is the ticket since it was requested. Hope this helps!

Thank you!

Marc

Thanks, Marc. Just curious if you thought that was consistent with the leverage-pace method from the overview documentation. Appreciate your answer, I wasn't doubting that you cashed.

[MM42]

Jake,

I am only two weeks in with the data/tool. I had an awesome meeting with Dick that morning. We went over a lot of different nuisances with the data etc. It was extremely helpful. I still follow the starting process (filter by top 5 RX horses), review the pace number, review EPR/LPR/TPR but then I filter by running style so I can give myself a good idea of how the top horses will align with the pace. I then handicap those top 5 horses via PP. After that, I use the segments screen and new pace as a "verification" of my decision on which horse to use etc. I mainly play doubles and pick 3s, some W bets as well. I don't know if I would have used the 9 (regularly handicapping with a DRF) if the data didn't put the horse in the top 5 RX. Because it was there, I had to handicap it and landed on it. I am new to the data and open to anything that will make me better! Hope that helps!


Marc

[kahunab]

Marc has given us a reminder. I can honestly say that I probably would have lost this race.
I remember a long time ago in a Follow UP or a seminar (I really am an old guy!) where we looked at a race where there were a ton of Early horses and only a couple of late. Doc Sartin said, "When there is this much Early who are very close to call, bet the Late horses no matter the numbers." Sometimes we get number blind. At least I do. We probably win more races that way in the Leverage Pace approach by focusing on the numbers and percentages but I hope that as we handicap we remember that Leverage Pace gives us multiple looks at the race and not just numbers on one line. Marc has given us an example to take the broad look at running styles and and Early Speed Points.

Here is the Segments screen with all the horses as competitors. We have 4 strong Early horses that look to fly out for the lead with lots of heat, pushing each other on the front end. Even looking at the numbers we see 4 horses tight at the 2nd call, 11,5,8,10 tight at the 2nd call. What happens if we eliminate them from the contenders for the win and just look at the Pressers.
54150

The 3 best finishers are the 1,7,9. As Marc pointed out the 9 is the Swing horse in NP meaning he can run Early or Late. His ESP 6 would point to him running up closer than any of the other pressers.
54151
This is a good example of looking at how running style and ESP can influence a race. Sometimes we have to look at the bigger picture. Thanks for the example Marc.

[Lt1]

Hi Marc. Thanks for your response. What I was questioning was how the 9 could rank above the 1, which has superior numbers, on your screen shot. Dick has provided some good insight with his screen shots and you would do well to pay attention to his advise.
Tim

[kahunab]

Hi Guys,
Sorry I posted the wrong screen shot. Mine was without scratches and using the last line.
Here is an even more clear look at the race with scratches and using the Best of the Last Three preceptor lines.
54154

As an aside, look how closely the race ran to the running styles and the ESP.
54153
Have a great day, sorry about the mistake. Thanks, Tim for your eagle eye.

[MM42]

All,

Parx - Race 2/3 double - $10 double 3,8/2 x $14.30 = 143.00

Small hit at Parx today following same strategy that I used for oaklawn double. Race 2 had no pace whatsoever. I was looking for two horses that will create the pace/be on the lead. That ended up being the 3 and 8 (top 2 NP early). The image shows the top 5 is filtered by RS. They were both P1 which should be infront of the 3 other horses (and other contenders since they are better horses). The 8,1,3 went to the lead. The 3 eventually passed the 1 and then came head to head with the 8 and went by. For race 3, this race had a 17 pace rating. Based on the RS, I anticipated the 5&6 to battle on the lead. The 2 was the class and late horse (1 NP late). The 2 stumbled at the gate, came from dead last to contest the 3 spot and then went by the 5&6 in the stretch. The 2 ended up being 3/5 but a $14 double was not bad at all.

[kahunab]

Gentlemen,
What is Marc reminding us of?
Bradshaw maybe? Running Style matters, maybe? Let's look at PRX today. As Marc suggests we choose the top 5 RX3 horses as our contenders. (Remember our database of 1343 sprints, RX3 has the winner in the top 5 94% of the time. Using BOLT lines. Best Of the Last Three Perceptor.) If as he suggests we line them up on running style after selecting the top 5 RX3 horses as contenders, here is what we see. I will just show you the pictures of all the non-maidens without comment. What do you see?
54157

54158

54159

54160

54161

[kahunab]

Here are the rest of the PRX non-maiden races.
54162

54163

54164

What do you see? What do you think? What are your questions?

[shoeless]

I see that only 1 of the races a arrow horse won


Jeff

[kahunab]

Jeff,
Remember our data is that the Key horses will win OR place 85% of the time. Thus the strategy of leveraging our bet with a key box Exacta or a key box trifecta or if the odds are high enough we win and place our Key. In the 8 races shown one of the arrow horses won or placed 7 times. Of the 8 races we had a Key candidate Win 1, Place 6, and Show 1. In two races they Placed and Showed. We just have to get good at choosing the right key horse.

Dick

[Jake]

Jeff,
Remember our data is that the Key horses will win OR place 85% of the time. Thus the strategy of leveraging our bet with a key box Exacta or a key box trifecta or if the odds are high enough we win and place our Key. In the 8 races shown one of the arrow horses won or placed 7 times. Of the 8 races we had a Key candidate Win 1, Place 6, and Show 1. In two races they Placed and Showed. We just have to get good at choosing the right key horse.

Dick

Dick,

Are the actual winners shown consistent with having been qualified as a potential key horse? Or are they outside your guidelines for Leverage\Pace key horses, as they appear to be here.

It was my question about Marc's double selections, as well. It didn't apparently seem to follow your top 3 high percentage combinations, either.

You might say they could be the companion choices in an exacta, but they don't seem to me to be the horses that you might get directly using the Leverage\Pace approach.

Trying to understand here, not attack. Only I believe it undercuts using Leverage\Pace a bit for getting all your exacta contenders, when you step outside your top win percentages
(especially the Blue Arrow contenders) to select a horse as your win candidate. JMO.

Jake

[Jake]

Dick,

I'm not trying to butt heads here over any of this. I'm grateful that both you and Bill were generous enough to share all your research and findings generated from your method approach.
Tons of work, far more than anyone probably understand. And, it's apparent that Marc is a good pace handicapper from his posts.

I have been handicapping for over fifty years, and I know handicapping can be a slippery slope when you start moving away from hard-earned guidelines or rules for finding good wagers.
It may work for Marc and others, including yourself, only to confuse those new to this approach. That said, I appreciate the time spent posting screens and all the advice being offered.
Everyone can choose to follow along or not, and make their own choices. Much thanks.

Jake

[kahunab]

Dick,

I'm not trying to butt heads here over any of this. I'm grateful that both you and Bill were generous enough to share all your research and findings generated from your method approach.
Tons of work, far more than anyone probably understand. And, it's apparent that Marc is a good pace handicapper from his posts.

I have been handicapping for over fifty years, and I know handicapping can be a slippery slope when you start moving away from hard-earned guidelines or rules for finding good wagers.
It may work for Marc and others, including yourself, only to confuse those new to this approach. That said, I appreciate the time spent posting screens and all the advice being offered.
Everyone can choose to follow along or not, and make their own choices. Much thanks.

Jake

Jake,
It is never wrong to ask questions with good intentions to clarify or learn. I have been doing this for 36 years and gone through all the phases of Sartin Methodology. (I hope you can take some time and read my introductory document on this site. Using RDSS to play in the Modern Game with Sartin Principles.)
I no longer look for the winner. I look for the horse that will most likely Win or Place using the data. It is a very different mindset.
Lets look at the data that should drive our decisionmaking. In a sprint with over 1300 sprint races, we know that:
1. 94% of the time the winner is in the top 5 RX3 and 93% of the time in the top 5 EPR.
2.85% of the time the Exacta is in the top 5 RX3 and 86% of the time in the top 5 EPR/TPR.
3. That 73% of the time the Trifecta is in the top 5 RX3 and 78% of the time the Trifecta is in the top 5 EPR/TPR. Here is where we can also look for longshots outside the top 5 RX3.
4. 85% of the time one of the arrow horses will Win or Place.

So our process is:

1. Demote any horse not in the top 5 RX3 to secondary or non-contender status.
2. Find the Arrow horse most likely to win or place and make him the key. (As an aside I spent a great deal of time working races to just find the right key. If you get this part down you will do well.) Use New Pace and the Segments screen to back up your choice. New Pace gives us a look at the totality of the horses past performances. Segments gives us two different match up looks at the horses both Early and Late.
3. Identify companion horses to pair with the Key. Here is where you start with the top 5 RX3 but you look for secondary contenders who might replace one of you keys. You are looking for probabilities here.

Let's look at a couple of races. The first from today. (I bet 6 races and won 4 trifectas. So I know this approach is not just happenstance.)
We work the above process. The 7 is our key but we could have screwed up and made the 8 the key and we still would have won. So we bet a trifecta Key box 7/3,5,6,8. Our 7 wins the favorite runs 2nd and we win a nice tri with the 3. None of our secondary contenders give us any pause to be added.
54172

Here is a race I posted that led to the questions. We work the process above. We make the 8 the key and the 3,6,7 companions. I used the 4 as the 4th companion instead of the 5 because of the 4s EPR #2 rating. Notice also that the 2 ran 4th with an EPR of 3.
Our data is strong. Because of the vagaries of this modern game I do the Key box so that my pick for Key can be anywhere on the board. Some of my best wins are when 2 longshots come in Win and Place and my Key runs 3rd since our key horse are often lower priced horses.
I hope this helps clarify what we are doing.

Dick

[Jake]

Dick,

Thanks. Your response to my question told me what I needed to know.

Jake

[MM42]

Dick,

Always great to read your responses!! Thank you!

Marc

[shoeless]

Dick

Thanks for explanation

Jeff