Double Race 11/12 at Oaklawn - Pace and Cap

MM42 · 04-12-2025, 09:10 PM

I have been working the data for about 2 weeks now. A lot of trial and error. After a meeting with Dick today, I felt way more comfortable. I was down about 100 today with multiple seconds on some W bets and double bets. I finally found my spot to lay it in (cautiously lol). Race 11 was a guarantee with Thorpedo Anna (based on data/PPs etc). In race 12, my two horses were the 1 & 9. My initial thought was to play two $40 dollar doubles, 6/1,9 (which is my normal betting style for doubles). However, still testing the data I just used the 9. I thought the 1 was going to be a little farther back than the 9 (EP3). Why the 9? I really leaned on the RS column in this race. I noticed there was 4 horses with a E5 and above. I was expecting a fast/pressured pace (20 RS). I noticed the 9s running style was an EP6. I was hoping the 9 would stalk 3rd or 4th and close in. That is exactly what happened, 9 was 4th and then gradually came into second and finally took the lead in the stretch. This horse was also the 2nd ranked late NP horse. From a handicapping perspective, I also liked this race was second off layoff.

6/9 $40 double x $13.70 = $548

Marc

kahunab · 04-12-2025, 10:24 PM

Good Job, Marc! It was fun to meet you this morning on Zoom! Great read.

Dick

shoeless · 04-13-2025, 01:34 PM

Marc

Not really sure off the readouts how you came up with the 9,
great job in doing so

Jeff

MM42 · 04-13-2025, 02:07 PM

Jeff,

I completely understand. I organized the top 5 RX figures. The 9 was the 5th RX total number. I then reviewed the RS column to review each racing style. The speed number was 20 (anticipating a fast/pressured pace). Above I mention, I thought the 4 was going to be 3rd or 4th stalking with the fast pace. It came out 4th, crept up to second and took the lead in the stretch. I was also going to use the 1 but I thought it would be too far back (which ultimately happened and couldn't close in). The 9 was the swinghorse on NP and the second best late (which I was looking for). From handicapping perspective, it was second off the layoff and had some good back class. Hope that makes sense!

Marc

shoeless · 04-13-2025, 02:53 PM

Marc

Thank you for the explanation and very good handicapping

Jeff

Lt1 · 04-13-2025, 04:56 PM

MM congrats on the score but I also have a question. On my version the favorite #1 ranked #5 RX with corollary support[ this remained the same whether I used my usual 100% DTV and changed pls or 50% DTV and left all pls as picked by the program and also was a key horse possibility] while the #9 was 6th with no support. On your screen shot the $1 also appears to have a higher ranking then the 9. Did you downgrade the #1 for cause>?
Tim

MM42 · 04-13-2025, 06:09 PM

LT,

The screenshot I took I filtered by running style (that's why you see the #1 at the bottom). What I like to do is filter by top RX score and then I will filter by the running style to get an idea of how it may run. Hope that makes sense!

Marc

darmar · 04-13-2025, 10:05 PM

Hi Marc
First of all Congrats on your hit at Oaklawn yesterday. I capped that race 6 ways to Sunday after it was over and.couldn't get the 9 higher than 4th . Could you please post your winning ticket and your segments screenshot for more analysis.
Thanks Darryl

Lt1 · 04-14-2025, 10:18 AM

Hi Marc. Thanks for the response but the way I see your screen shot the 9 has the lowest RX score. What am I missing?
Tim

Jake · 04-14-2025, 03:46 PM

Marc,

I'm curious as well here. With the exception of the pace pressure gauge moving you toward the 9 horse as the possible late choice, the rest of the screen rankings for this horse seems very anti-leverage/pace, meaning you look to be fading the best win percentages that Kahunab complied and shared. A bit confusing here.

Jake

04-12-2025, 10:24 PM	#2
kahunab Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Colorado Posts: 330	Good Job, Marc! It was fun to meet you this morning on Zoom! Great read. Dick __________________ Haakon 47 'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow

04-13-2025, 04:56 PM	#6
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,515	MM congrats on the score but I also have a question. On my version the favorite #1 ranked #5 RX with corollary support[ this remained the same whether I used my usual 100% DTV and changed pls or 50% DTV and left all pls as picked by the program and also was a key horse possibility] while the #9 was 6th with no support. On your screen shot the $1 also appears to have a higher ranking then the 9. Did you downgrade the #1 for cause>? Tim __________________ Trust but verify

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04-12-2025, 09:10 PM	#1
MM42 AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2025 Posts: 13	Double Race 11/12 at Oaklawn I have been working the data for about 2 weeks now. A lot of trial and error. After a meeting with Dick today, I felt way more comfortable. I was down about 100 today with multiple seconds on some W bets and double bets. I finally found my spot to lay it in (cautiously lol). Race 11 was a guarantee with Thorpedo Anna (based on data/PPs etc). In race 12, my two horses were the 1 & 9. My initial thought was to play two $40 dollar doubles, 6/1,9 (which is my normal betting style for doubles). However, still testing the data I just used the 9. I thought the 1 was going to be a little farther back than the 9 (EP3). Why the 9? I really leaned on the RS column in this race. I noticed there was 4 horses with a E5 and above. I was expecting a fast/pressured pace (20 RS). I noticed the 9s running style was an EP6. I was hoping the 9 would stalk 3rd or 4th and close in. That is exactly what happened, 9 was 4th and then gradually came into second and finally took the lead in the stretch. This horse was also the 2nd ranked late NP horse. From a handicapping perspective, I also liked this race was second off layoff. 6/9 $40 double x $13.70 = $548 Marc Attached Images

04-13-2025, 01:34 PM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Marc Not really sure off the readouts how you came up with the 9, great job in doing so Jeff

04-13-2025, 02:07 PM	#4
MM42 AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2025 Posts: 13	Jeff, I completely understand. I organized the top 5 RX figures. The 9 was the 5th RX total number. I then reviewed the RS column to review each racing style. The speed number was 20 (anticipating a fast/pressured pace). Above I mention, I thought the 4 was going to be 3rd or 4th stalking with the fast pace. It came out 4th, crept up to second and took the lead in the stretch. I was also going to use the 1 but I thought it would be too far back (which ultimately happened and couldn't close in). The 9 was the swinghorse on NP and the second best late (which I was looking for). From handicapping perspective, it was second off the layoff and had some good back class. Hope that makes sense! Marc

04-13-2025, 02:53 PM	#5
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Marc Thank you for the explanation and very good handicapping Jeff

04-13-2025, 06:09 PM	#7
MM42 AlwNW1X Join Date: Mar 2025 Posts: 13	LT, The screenshot I took I filtered by running style (that's why you see the #1 at the bottom). What I like to do is filter by top RX score and then I will filter by the running style to get an idea of how it may run. Hope that makes sense! Marc

04-13-2025, 10:05 PM	#8
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,643	Hi Marc First of all Congrats on your hit at Oaklawn yesterday. I capped that race 6 ways to Sunday after it was over and.couldn't get the 9 higher than 4th . Could you please post your winning ticket and your segments screenshot for more analysis. Thanks Darryl

04-14-2025, 10:18 AM	#9
Lt1 Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Valley Stream NY Posts: 11,515	Hi Marc. Thanks for the response but the way I see your screen shot the 9 has the lowest RX score. What am I missing? Tim __________________ Trust but verify

04-14-2025, 03:46 PM	#10
Jake Clean slate Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 79	Marc, I'm curious as well here. With the exception of the pace pressure gauge moving you toward the 9 horse as the possible late choice, the rest of the screen rankings for this horse seems very anti-leverage/pace, meaning you look to be fading the best win percentages that Kahunab complied and shared. A bit confusing here. Jake