Philly "Joe Frazier"

[RichieP]

Tomorrow's finale at Philly.

Race conditions and entries

[RichieP]

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[RichieP]

.,.

[Charlie D]

#4 could be all alone, then again it might not be as #2 could go with it. :confused: unsure to whats going to happen tbh. Anyway, here's my contenders.

16771

If i played, at ML prices, i'd probably go #4 and #5

[RichieP]

These are the lines I am using to eval.

For #7 I am using por from 1c of line 6 and switching that to the last line.

[mikesal57]

OK Boys....

come on...how can u even consider the #4....he loses at slower paces in PP's..pace factor only...toss??

[mikesal57]

how about the 7 & 9???

mike

[justin13892002]

7 is my selection. 9 is there, but don't see him beating 7.

[RichieP]

FPLR + multi call "FIGHTER" gang.

Now we move this winner right away to our "LOOK" thread correct?

This one we "see" before the fact. ;)

$9.60 is your reward

[For The Lead]

OK Boys....

come on...how can u even consider the #4....he loses at slower paces in PP's..pace factor only...toss??

Sorry for what appears to be redboarding, but this would be my thoughts before or after the race.
You are correct that this horse lost at slower paces, but against what competition at those slower paces?
This horse's complete PP's are all there to see. Like many first time starters, his connections had high hopes and put him in a MS event to start his career. The horse broke bad and got to within 2 lengths of the leader at the first call. Now the worst thing you can do with a young horse is make make him or her keep losing. So the next time out they drop the horse to a MC 25K. Again the horse shows some early energy only. So they drop the horse to MC 12.5k and it wins. An old rule of thumb is, whatever claiming price a horse breaks his maiden at, he should be competitive at half that price against winners. So for the sake of argument, let's give him a 'window', Clm 5k-Clm 7.5k. If you look at this horses races since he broke his maiden, the only races in which he was off the board was against Clm15K(nw2l-twice today's price) and also a Clm7.5 (OPEN) race. Today is CLm7.5(nw2l). The only race that gives me concern was the Clm6.25(nw2l) at PEN. I thought this was a race the horse should have won, however, PEN is not the speed favoring track it was before that track shut down from 9/20/08 to 10/31/08 in order to completely re-surface it. Since then speed has not done as well as it did prior to that. SO that is my take on this particular horse. In my opinion, the #4 horse was definitely a "primary" contender today, win or lose.

[VoodooFan]

Thanks for the race reminder, Richie.

I remembered ," Early fighter(at the 1st call)", "Other-Than-Early fighter" but forgot about the "Multi-call fighter"....I'll have to re-read Fighter thread.

VoodooFan

[VoodooFan]

Sorry for what appears to be redboarding, but this would be my thoughts before or after the race.
You are correct that this horse lost at slower paces, but against what competition at those slower paces?



I will apologize as well, because its after the fact.

But to address For The Lead, I guess everyone has to see things the way they need to see them to get a handle on stuff, you and I are still learning.

Here's my take.

But thats why we like the MatchUp.......eliminates a lot of "static noise" that is unnecessary as we try to get more proficient and faster.

The MatchUp SIMPLIFIES things, we don't care what the trainer intends to do, because we know the horse don't know what he is worth.

Besides, THE HAT said if the trainer was so smart, he would'nt be out there shoveling that stuff...,

1st, he is an early horse...

2nd, he fought for the lead, twice,

3rd, he is a multi-call fighter, as Richie said,

4th, compare his 1st call times PLUS fighting to actually get the lead as compared to the others, he WILL get the lead,

5th, the "other" horses that could possibly "press" him or "head" him ran a 22.1 on the turf and has since then deteriorated to 23's, the other horse was 3rd by a nk at a 21.7 but has also deteriorated, changed his style drastically,

6th, the 4, 2nd race back did lose on a slow pace, but he was "HEADED", but then look, he multi-call fights on a faster pace, signs of improvement,

7th, keep in mind "pressing", making a early horse run faster than he wants is generally, not a rule, a horse running a 1st call 1hd,1nk,1no,2hd,2nk,2no,2nd 1/2 off at equivalent
fractions, so who is going to make him run faster than he wants at the 1st call?

8th, the other question is, what do the "other" early horses do or press when they are 2nd? Look at the Past Performances, not very good pressing if they are not on the lead or fighting for it, and pressing at slow times without the lead in the 1st call.

9th, heres a horse learning how to run, improving

10th, "My" Minds Eye will use his last race as a 22.1 , he fought at a fast pace and still only lost by 1 length, after fighting for half-a-mile

11th, what is the best he is going to be pressed at the 1st call today? Looks like he will have some comfort lead, saving valuable energy,

12th, the only use for the Maiden race is that we know he is Early, wire to wire..., the only use for "class" in this instance is to discount, downgrade that race as to say he was in junior high school competing, NOW he is competing against more experienced , grown folks.

13th, the last question is who is going to pass him , at those fractions, in his last race? Who is going to be right there at 44's , THEN, be on him at the stretch to pass him like the other horse did? Remember , if they try to keep up with him at 44's, they will not be able to project to their stretch time and finish, they also will be using up valuable units of energy,as Richie constantly reminds us of what THE HAT says, that the race starts when the gate pops, not at a fast stretch call and final time.

I only wrote this because of the trainer questions, class up or down questions, and all that......stuff the MatchUp simplifies.

Maybe its only good for , to others, to separate your final two horses you just can't separate, maybe.

Go back to Club Pace and Cap and listen to THE HAT lecture, he brutally chops a lot of unnecessary dead wood horses and mainstream handicapping to pieces.

Like THE HAT said, "......we want to KNOW what the HORSE can do..."

Its also a good exercise to listen to THE HAT a few times, on mp3,that way, that cowboy "voice" from Tulsa, Oklahoma is always in your head when we start getting confused and complicate things, along with Richies reminders and quotes from THE HAT.

We are all still learning, we can't see everything.....,yet.

VoodooFan

[RichieP]

Oh and btw:
Nice win Charlie! :)

"Hat "Longshot" Helper"

LOOK at the #4's positioning/Fighting attributes at 1c and 2c of the last race.

Now going forward on "live" races:
1) Find a horse who comes out of FPLR AND looks similar to the #4 at first two calls BUT then collapses at stretch call and finish winding up completely off the board.

2) Open the pps ALL the way on this horse and grab his best race (or Voodoo some lines if you are advanced matcher) with NO hesitation.

3) When you find a horse described in #2 above and he projects off that to your final contender mix of say 2-3 horses AND his style fits YOUR eval of the winning race shape AND he is a longshot

TAKE A BET ON THE HORSE

The first BOMB Hat ever taught and showed me was EXACTLY like I described above. I will never forget it was a turf sprinter at Calder and paid over 40 dollars.

This has been explained and well documented way back in Hat Check area with Jim monitoring things (I believe first mention is the "8 month update" thread but dont quote me) I freaked and he laughed that Okie chuckle of his! :D

Pattern recognition
Patience
Wait for price,pass the chalks

See you over the weekend

[mikesal57]

Hello Boys

NICE CALL ON THE #4


As always , I love waking up in the morning and watching the replays that I bet and that the group have an interest in..

For some reason, gut I guess, I didnt bet yesterday...

Good thing, after watching a 21.4 45.0 fractions I was waiting for someone to pass him....even though he was saying HELLO to the fans on the fence while bearing out..noone passed him..:eek:

I thought his last race fractions were a fluke and didnt believe he can duplicate it again...he ran close to it again and didnt really get pressured so he held on.

I didnt bet because I didnt have that feeling that the 7 & 9 were that strong enough to warrant it..good thing..

OK...next one

mike

[Charlie D]

Oh and btw:
Nice win Charlie! :)


I fell asleep around 5th race and missed it. :)