Philly "Joe Frazier"

[RichieP]

Tomorrow's finale at Philly.

Race conditions and entries

[RichieP]

...

[RichieP]

.,.

[Charlie D]

#4 could be all alone, then again it might not be as #2 could go with it. unsure to whats going to happen tbh. Anyway, here's my contenders.



If i played, at ML prices, i'd probably go #4 and #5

[RichieP]

These are the lines I am using to eval.

For #7 I am using por from 1c of line 6 and switching that to the last line.

[mikesal57]

OK Boys....

come on...how can u even consider the #4....he loses at slower paces in PP's..pace factor only...toss??

[mikesal57]

how about the 7 & 9???

mike

[justin13892002]

7 is my selection. 9 is there, but don't see him beating 7.

[RichieP]

FPLR + multi call "FIGHTER" gang.

Now we move this winner right away to our "LOOK" thread correct?

This one we "see" before the fact.

$9.60 is your reward

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

OK Boys....

come on...how can u even consider the #4....he loses at slower paces in PP's..pace factor only...toss??

Sorry for what appears to be redboarding, but this would be my thoughts before or after the race.
You are correct that this horse lost at slower paces, but against what competition at those slower paces?
This horse's complete PP's are all there to see. Like many first time starters, his connections had high hopes and put him in a MS event to start his career. The horse broke bad and got to within 2 lengths of the leader at the first call. Now the worst thing you can do with a young horse is make make him or her keep losing. So the next time out they drop the horse to a MC 25K. Again the horse shows some early energy only. So they drop the horse to MC 12.5k and it wins. An old rule of thumb is, whatever claiming price a horse breaks his maiden at, he should be competitive at half that price against winners. So for the sake of argument, let's give him a 'window', Clm 5k-Clm 7.5k. If you look at this horses races since he broke his maiden, the only races in which he was off the board was against Clm15K(nw2l-twice today's price) and also a Clm7.5 (OPEN) race. Today is CLm7.5(nw2l). The only race that gives me concern was the Clm6.25(nw2l) at PEN. I thought this was a race the horse should have won, however, PEN is not the speed favoring track it was before that track shut down from 9/20/08 to 10/31/08 in order to completely re-surface it. Since then speed has not done as well as it did prior to that. SO that is my take on this particular horse. In my opinion, the #4 horse was definitely a "primary" contender today, win or lose.