FG 12/26 - race 4 - Merry Christmas Mike

[Bill Lyster]

Bottom or near bottom claimers, 6 furlongs, 13 horses and just maybe enuf to generate a good price.

First a look at the first 5 tandems. From first race consider top three and let others in with major excuses if you can find any (I didn't)

Next three screen shots are all the horses that have taken lead in any race.

The 7 won wire to wire last out, but ran the same adjusted speed rating in 2nd last, while pressing. Total pace ratings for the last two races are best of this field. I used line 1 for the pace of this race. Note the energy in its good lines 1-2-5 as calculated by the program is Presser, not Early.

The 1 attempted taking the lead 2 back but has had a layoff and looks to run more comfortably 5 or more positions from the lead making some kind of middle move. Best closing kick is about 80 and thats not good enuf to win from behind here.

The 5 came back from a layoff and turned in a horror show. Last out it took the lead, but it prominently fades whenever it takes the lead in other races. I used race 5, I think its too generous, and she lost by almost 10.

The next screen shot is all the lines I considered before hides. The 10 horse had early traffic problems in last race and looks to run late off that race. Normal style is more pressing, but two back shows not enuf energy to get usual position. Historically this horse has an LPR about 80 and that should not be enuf today. If you looked only at the 7f races for this horse you would think that based on the 6f time that this horse would be a contender. She has run 113 and 111.5 at the six furlong mark in two 7f races and never come near those times at the end of a six furlong race! I'm suspicious.

I will finish in the next post.

[Bill Lyster]

Sorry about that

[Bill Lyster]

Next, the TPR screen with all the lines.

The first thing to note is that the worst line of the 7 is more than two points better than any other. Major good sign.

Also, the 8, 10 and 2 are the only horses with better late LPR, but none can keep up early with the 7. All of the good races by the 8 came in 5 furlong races. The LPR in all races above 5 furlongs are substantially weaker than the race I used here.

I think that by default the 10 [ep] and 9 [p] fill out the other placements, a lot because the remaining contenders have E energy calculated by the program. The TPR screen shows poor 2nd halves for all but my top three 7-10 and 9

[Bill Lyster]

Note that the BL/BL screen shows big advantage for the 7 over all others.

Good luck tomorrow,

[mikesal57]

Hey Bill...thxs for this and thinking about me...awwwww

looks like rain here on the east coast...so I'll be heading west young man....

but not too far wouldn't want to bump into you with the Hawaiian shirt and white shorts...plus i burn too fast

I'll get my head together by tomorrow...been eating and drinking a storm here and chasing Mrs Santa around the house :D

By then Justin should chime in and a few others too...

mike

[mikesal57]

P.S- and a Merry Christmas too you...Ho Ho Ho

[mikesal57]

I'm Back..

OK...with my very tough contender selections..I have 7-8-9-10

i think the 9 will take over by the half and cruise home..3rd off a layoff and raced against faster times in PP
#7 got an easy lead last out but may get pressure from the 10 this time


good luck

mike

[mamojica]

A belated Merry Christmas to everybody. Hope your holidays went well.

Races like these give me fits, and I usually pass.

I narrowed the race down to the 1, 1A, 9 and 11. The 1A has been scratched, but that doesn't help me select between the remaining contenders.

The 7 is the morning line favorite, and with good reason. He looks like the only horse who has run well recently. This adds to my uncertainty, and reinforces my decision to pass.

Regards,
Marc

[mikesal57]

thxs marc for coming in...

yes I know what you mean about a decent recent race among any of these...I will bash Bill later on this...especially if i lose....:D

mike

[justin13892002]

thxs marc for coming in...

yes I know what you mean about a decent recent race among any of these...I will bash Bill later on this...especially if i lose....:D

mike

Mike,

Sorry I just got back in town, and missed the post. Hope you all had that NICE winner, 2.

[mikesal57]

Mike,

Sorry I just got back in town, and missed the post. Hope you all had that NICE winner, 2.

yeah right...:o

welcome home J

[mamojica]

...and this is one of them. I projected the 5 to go for the lead because in 5 of the last 6 races she either got or tried for the lead at two furlongs. But I wasn't very confident because this was her third race back from an 8 month layoff and she wasn't running so great. I projected her to go for the lead, although I didn't think she would win, and used the Jan 29 line to project 2f at 22.3 and 4f at 46.4. She was 5th at 2f and finished 9th. So that went wrong right away.

#9 was one of my contenders, but she also had recently come back from a long layoff, plus she had changed trainers during that layoff. She hasn't performed so well since then, and I wasn't very confident in her chances. I projected her as a contender based on her performance pre-layoff and pre-trainer change. She challenged briefly, then faded.

#11 was my second contender. She had been racing fairly regularly, but her last time out was a disaster. She could handle the projected pace based on her performances this summer, but not lately. So I wasn't very confident in her either.

#1 was my third and final contender. This was her first race back from a 4 month layoff. Her last outing was terrible, which probably explains why she needed the break. Not a confidence builder. But earlier races indicated she could handle the projected pace, so I made her a contender. The crowd disagreed, and sent her out with the second longest odds on the board. The crowd was right and I was wrong.

Even though she was the morning line favorite, I ruled out the #7 as contender. In order for her to perform well, the pace had to be slower than I projected. But her recent form was the best in the field. Jim Bradshaw said he didn’t look at recent form, and as a faithful follower of The Match-Up, I eliminated her as a contender, but with some trepidation. As it turned out, it was the right thing to do.

Eliminating the #7 was the only thing I got right with this race. I ruled out the #2 and #10, the win and place horses, right off the bat as being too slow.

I’ve been using The Match-Up since March. I use the 5-Step Approach exclusively. I don’t use software. One of the things I am learning is that if the 5-Step Approach doesn’t point to a clear cut selection, you shouldn’t bet. If it is a close call among a number of horses, just pass the race. I’ll bet two horses at most. If I’ve narrowed the race down to three horses, but can’t narrow it down further, I just skip it. I have to be absolutely sure that my one or two selections are the only ones that can win.

With this race, I had little confidence in anything. This race had “PASS” written all over it.

Bill picked a good practice race, even though I ended up deciding to pass. I need to practice passing. I tend to try to squeeze out a winner, and end up losing more races than I should.

Regards,
Marc

[justin13892002]

...and this is one of them. I projected the 5 to go for the lead because in 5 of the last 6 races she either got or tried for the lead at two furlongs. But I wasn't very confident because this was her third race back from an 8 month layoff and she wasn't running so great. I projected her to go for the lead, although I didn't think she would win, and used the Jan 29 line to project 2f at 22.3 and 4f at 46.4. She was 5th at 2f and finished 9th. So that went wrong right away.

#9 was one of my contenders, but she also had recently come back from a long layoff, plus she had changed trainers during that layoff. She hasn't performed so well since then, and I wasn't very confident in her chances. I projected her as a contender based on her performance pre-layoff and pre-trainer change. She challenged briefly, then faded.

#11 was my second contender. She had been racing fairly regularly, but her last time out was a disaster. She could handle the projected pace based on her performances this summer, but not lately. So I wasn't very confident in her either.

#1 was my third and final contender. This was her first race back from a 4 month layoff. Her last outing was terrible, which probably explains why she needed the break. Not a confidence builder. But earlier races indicated she could handle the projected pace, so I made her a contender. The crowd disagreed, and sent her out with the second longest odds on the board. The crowd was right and I was wrong.

Even though she was the morning line favorite, I ruled out the #7 as contender. In order for her to perform well, the pace had to be slower than I projected. But her recent form was the best in the field. Jim Bradshaw said he didn’t look at recent form, and as a faithful follower of The Match-Up, I eliminated her as a contender, but with some trepidation. As it turned out, it was the right thing to do.

Eliminating the #7 was the only thing I got right with this race. I ruled out the #2 and #10, the win and place horses, right off the bat as being too slow.

I’ve been using The Match-Up since March. I use the 5-Step Approach exclusively. I don’t use software. One of the things I am learning is that if the 5-Step Approach doesn’t point to a clear cut selection, you shouldn’t bet. If it is a close call among a number of horses, just pass the race. I’ll bet two horses at most. If I’ve narrowed the race down to three horses, but can’t narrow it down further, I just skip it. I have to be absolutely sure that my one or two selections are the only ones that can win.

With this race, I had little confidence in anything. This race had “PASS” written all over it.

Bill picked a good practice race, even though I ended up deciding to pass. I need to practice passing. I tend to try to squeeze out a winner, and end up losing more races than I should.

Regards,
Marc

Marc,

I agree some races are tough. I did happen to see on the Print Screens, the little red box by the 2, which means the RDSS software had as top selection?

Nice $44 winner if so. I too dont use the RDSS version, as I created my MANUAL input version in excel, but will be converting to RDSS in the near future! Excellent software!