FG 12/26 - race 4 - Merry Christmas Mike

[Bill Lyster]

Bottom or near bottom claimers, 6 furlongs, 13 horses and just maybe enuf to generate a good price.

First a look at the first 5 tandems. From first race consider top three and let others in with major excuses if you can find any (I didn't)

Next three screen shots are all the horses that have taken lead in any race.

The 7 won wire to wire last out, but ran the same adjusted speed rating in 2nd last, while pressing. Total pace ratings for the last two races are best of this field. I used line 1 for the pace of this race. Note the energy in its good lines 1-2-5 as calculated by the program is Presser, not Early.

The 1 attempted taking the lead 2 back but has had a layoff and looks to run more comfortably 5 or more positions from the lead making some kind of middle move. Best closing kick is about 80 and thats not good enuf to win from behind here.

The 5 came back from a layoff and turned in a horror show. Last out it took the lead, but it prominently fades whenever it takes the lead in other races. I used race 5, I think its too generous, and she lost by almost 10.

The next screen shot is all the lines I considered before hides. The 10 horse had early traffic problems in last race and looks to run late off that race. Normal style is more pressing, but two back shows not enuf energy to get usual position. Historically this horse has an LPR about 80 and that should not be enuf today. If you looked only at the 7f races for this horse you would think that based on the 6f time that this horse would be a contender. She has run 113 and 111.5 at the six furlong mark in two 7f races and never come near those times at the end of a six furlong race! I'm suspicious.

I will finish in the next post.