Today ...

[Ted Craven]

I'm proceeding with a lot of caution today, using at most half my normal wager unit - enjoying watching races if there's too much unclarity in any of them (which there is in a lot of them!)

The best opinion I have in any race so far, besides Wise Dan in the Mile, is in the Downhill Turf Sprint: #3 Chips All In and #12 Mizdirection

Re 'early bias' on dirt - I have to believe that the matchup of Earlies/Fighters and Pressers/Late horses in any race has at least as much impact on the outcome as any sudden weather or track maintenance issues.

Ted

[Ted Craven]

One race does not confirm anything, but the first dirt race today (#2) using Bill L's described E/ep analysis (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?goto=newpost&t=9480) rates the winner well (on top), as does the traditional Best of Last 3 comparable (only 4 real contenders, though ...)

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I'll check things as they go, out of curiosity ...

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Race 3

#1 shows some possibility as an overlay. I required (as for all the downhill Turf course sprints) that the contenders have shown some affinity for this particular, peculiar, surface, and in a decent time. If so, I'm happy to seek a better line (i.e. in case their 6.5T line was against a slow pace).

36096

[dirty moose]

Hey Ted. Good luck out there!

[dirty moose]

In the 4th. The 1 will be my key horse. Will mostly bet the 1,10 to win

[polambi]

Ted...Good job at Santa Anita today! Too bad I didn't see your posts earlier, otherwise I would have thrown a few bucks on your selections. Keep it up!

[DaveEdwards]

Wow, what a finish to the 4th!

[polambi]

dirty moose .....Sorry for the disqualification in the 4th race. You did a good job getting the #10 to win. Keep it up!

[Bill V.]

In the 4th. The 1 will be my key horse. Will mostly bet the 1,10 to win


Sorry Matt

Hope you feel alright . Nice work picking the 10
Use that to your advantage as you move on


Bill

[dirty moose]

Thanks 's fellas! That one hurt tho.
If you ask me =)... Total crock o' sheet....

[Ted Craven]

Ted...Good job at Santa Anita today! Too bad I didn't see your posts earlier, otherwise I would have thrown a few bucks on your selections. Keep it up!

Paul,

I didn't win anything yet! Small WP bet on the #1 in the 3rd. I did not bet the 4th race - a good thing, since I had the 7-1-10.

cheers,

Ted

[DaveEdwards]

I bet that hurt. At least you handicapped the race well.

[Ted Craven]

For the record, here are the picks for the BC races today I posted in the PaceAdvantage BC Contest.

I reserve the right to be more selective/creative - or change my mind completely :eek: (This was a Win only contest totally $10 per race).

SA4
--> $4 Win 7-10
--> $2 Win 1

SA5
--> $4 Win 2
--> $3 Win 1-3

SA6
--> $4 Win 9-11
--> $2 Win 3

SA7
--> $4 Win 3-12
--> $2 Win 14

SA8
--> $5 Win 13-14

SA9
--> $4 Win 12
--> $3 Win 7-8

SA10
--> $5 Win 1-6

SA11
--> $10 Win 8

SA12
--> $4 Win 7
--> $3 Win 2-10

.

[dirty moose]

In the 5th going with the 1,7.
1,6,7/1,3,4,6,7,10

[Ted Craven]

I did not bet the 5th race (too low odds on my main horses, given the serious uncertainties of these Euros). However, here's what I had:

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[Ted Craven]

A LOT of very fine fillies and mares here - very tough to separate. Perhaps the odds will help me make a choice, but keeping my money in my pocket looks like a good one so far ...

36100

[Ted Craven]

I got some Win odds on 11 and 9

[DaveEdwards]

9 & 12 for me

[DaveEdwards]

well done Ted, hoping the 9 would get there for both of us!

[Ted Craven]

well done Ted, hoping the 9 would get there for both of us!

Nice little Exacta too. I was rooting for Judy as well, but could not disrespect Groupie Doll.

36101

[DaveEdwards]

Yes a very nice exacta there.

I was perhaps a little generous there with the 12.....

[dirty moose]

36102Finally a winner and the EX! Nice job all. I know it's a little after the race.

[Ted Craven]

Again, must have success on this downhill Turf course. If so, I'll use a better line. If not, they're not a Win Contender.

Chips All In should give Mizdirection a good run!

36103

[Ted Craven]

36102Finally a winner and the EX! Nice job all. I know it's a little after the race.

Congratulations Matt!

[DaveEdwards]

Nice one Matt, makes up for the dq!

I got no probs with anyone saying anything after the event. If you hit it, you hit it.

[DaveEdwards]

Race 7 is a definite pass for me. Too many unknowns for my liking.

[dirty moose]

Twinspires Profit Line says the 7 should be 3/1....

[DaveEdwards]

Before anyone posts anything here, I'm going to post what I'm doing which is laying the 12 to lose on betfair.

Probably not in the spirit of the Methodology, but....

[DaveEdwards]

What I meant was I don't want others to lose etc, but that is the position I've taken with the race.

[DaveEdwards]

Oh dear. Breaking even on the night now.......

[Ted Craven]

Just a wonderful horse - Mizdirection. And a thrilling draw for 2nd/3rd.

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[Ted Craven]

With so many young horses - improving (or not) in unknown ways - you have to draw the line somewhere ... For better or worse, I chose to emphasize those horses who had gone on to do something (e.g. good Graded finishes) since their Maiden wins.

Hope the odds stay good on Havana and Strong Mandate.

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[DaveEdwards]

11, 13 & 14 for me. All win bets.

[Bill V.]

Good to see Mizdirection win


As far as the last race

It's always the 4 horse :rolleyes:

Good skill guys

[Ted Craven]

As far as the last race

It's always the 4 horse :rolleyes:

Good skill guys

Indeed!

36106

[Ted Craven]

Treading very lightly due to Euro #7 The Fugue.

Small exacta on 7-8-10-12. And it's hard to see how anyone might beat #8 Point of Entry, but ...

I have a small WP bet on #8

36107

[Ted Craven]

Euros continue their strong performance this year! The old adage of simply flat-betting ALL the Euro horses is starting to look sensible (in hindsight).

DaveEdwards - what do you feed these horses, Guinness :eek: ?

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[Ted Craven]

I'm presuming ALL the Earlies are compromised, and a Presser from 4th or so will come on.

So that's the #1 and #6

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[dirty moose]

Race 10.... Win bets will be 1,3. Ex will be 1,3,7/1,3,5,7,9

[Ted Craven]

Wise Dan will have to give his best performance today. Olympic Glory looks to have done everything right.

Rooting for Dan, keeping my money safe in pocket.

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[Ted Craven]

Wonderful win by Wise Dan! I think he's my favourite horse this year :)

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Well, for me, I decided the Classic was too contentious to bet on this year. IMO, any of Ft Larned, G.O.D., Will Take Charge, or MMM could win. You don't actually have to bet on a race, just because you spent a lot of time on it.

Time to count my bankroll (the remaining part :o), open a nice Gewurtz and eat my pizza watching the rest of the festivities.

Had a great (though technically not profitable) day! Good night all, and good luck!

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[Speed Figure]

How my program has the BCC!

[dirty moose]

I do like Game On Dude. But my key with be the #7

[dirty moose]

I'd like to thank the BC for taking a large chunk on my money.

[Appy]

It wasn't exactly the orgasm of success I hoped for, but today more than made up for yesterday and I ended with a little bit bigger bank than when I started, so it's all good.
What a Mucho story for the Macho Man, eh? That story will be a movie before you know it.

I modestly played our Kansas horse Fort Larned as one of my winners, although I wasn't overly confident. He ran a good race. Can't ask for more than that, especially considering the quality of field.
What a great 2 days of racing!

[Appy]

Oh, and thanks for the wonderful sense of humor, Moose! :)

[Bill V.]

Congrats to
Mucho Macho Man

I think I lost my voice screaming for Pennsylvania Derby winner 3 year old
Will Take Charge

[dirty moose]

Oh, and thanks for the wonderful sense of humor, Moose!


It's about all I have left after Friday and Today :):(:mad::confused:

[atkinsrr]

crap I also had the #10 ...that take down knocked me out of the P4 right off the bat..then the #11 knocked me out of the late P4....but Macho Man made up for a day that wasn't going well ....I'll take that win !!!!!

[Segwin]

Cudos to NBC Sports for fantastic coverage. I really enjoyed watching both days.

Watching the top horses compete is a great visual experience.

[Appy]

May be a case of selective memory, but it seems to me this years BC cards were overall the most challenging I can recall.
I noted with interest some of the creative pace line selection by those here who posted screenshots. Sometimes I think I'm getting settled in on a paceline process and other times I'm not so sure. Last two days fell into the "I'm not sure" category leaving me to pass races I had been looking forward to for a year. Just never seemed to get synced into a play it mode.
Lots of work to do.

[polambi]

There is so much at stakes in the Breeder's Cup that I think nobody should feel bad for not being able to predict the outcome of any of those races.
I am quite confident in my paceline selection now, but I did not even bother downloading the cards. However I did enjoy watching some of the races, which I think were very entertaining.

[Segwin]

May be a case of selective memory, but it seems to me this years BC cards were overall the most challenging I can recall.
I noted with interest some of the creative pace line selection by those here who posted screenshots. Sometimes I think I'm getting settled in on a paceline process and other times I'm not so sure. Last two days fell into the "I'm not sure" category leaving me to pass races I had been looking forward to for a year. Just never seemed to get synced into a play it mode.
Lots of work to do.

I didn't bet one race.

It's all good.

[DaveEdwards]

Ted,

I wonder if the jockey impact plays more of a role in the outcome of the these turf races than is usually the case. Obviously with the vast majority of racing over here being on the turf perhaps it does lend a tactical advantage?
I recall Frankie Dettori being slammed for one of his rides in the BC a few years ago on the dirt so perhaps there might be something in it.
Probably not enough to warrant an indepth study for two days racing per year!

Alternatively, it could be the Guinness, well for the Irish that is!

[atkinsrr]

Dave...very valid point...I think jockey impact in some cases plays an important role..but there are a lot of circumstances to look at...type of race and money involved, relationship between jock and the connections...but I like to see an older experienced jock like Garret Gomez, Johnny V., Gary Stevens, Mike Smith, be on a horse that they have ridden before and knows the horses behavioral habits...I told some of my racing friends last week that Mike and Gary would be the top jocks in this years BC races..and they were...also without Dettori being here Ryan Moore won 2 BC races...he also is experienced....don't believe that jocks should be a major hcp factor but when you look at your contenders it's nice to have these guys riding for you ...it makes me more confident when I bet...

[Mr.Pagine]

Hello Friends,

I hope you all made a little money this weekend. I was busy with family all weekend, and thank the lord for my PVR, as I will watch the races this week.

Downloaded the cards, but did not wager. The reason for the post is that I think we should plan a team meeting at the Breeders Cup next year at Santa Anita.

I will be heading out for sure......let's make some cash, and have some fun.

Happy Punting