Changes
 

The track is muddy

Scratches are the #3 and #4

And the 7 most recently scratched....

With the scratches there is still some early pressure from the 5. The 2 has won four in a row and broke from the gate 2-2-1-4. the five broke 1-4-1-4-1 in its last 5 and only won when it fought for the lead. With the sloppy track this one might get to the lead first vs the 2 but the 5 can't keep up with the 2's turn time of 24.0 or less and persevere to the finish. If the 5 bothers the 2 early, the 2 can still finish in 105.8 or .9.

I think the dynamics of this race have changed and the 2 should wire the field with the 8 closing. 8 has been off 83 days and its last is its best. If he can repeat that race he probably wins here.

Still don't know how to rate the 1 off only CT races. IF SOMEONE COULD POST THE ADJUSTED SCREENS FOR THE 1-2-8 THAT MIGHT CLEAR MATTERS UP a little bit.

Thanks,

Bill

match up
 

I will go with the 5 and 8

2 and 8 are early energy runners 8 edges the 2 to the MP

3 4 7 have been scratched

Good Skill
Bill V.
Miami Calder parking lot

A little chart research at CT shows that a 1:20 time for 6.5 furlongs is very fast; it was run in the last week in an allowance race.

In the last five days 7 seven furlong races at or about todays class averaged 128.8 whereas for the horses in today's field it looks like the average 5.5 furlong time is about 106.50, the difference being 22.3

Note that the 1 is the top APV horse by a nice margin and the #2 class horse. The 1 was on the lead at the 6 furlong call in its last three at CT. If I subtract 22.3 from the finish times I get 105.6, 104.0, and another race at or near 104.

All of these races would be competitve today against this field where the 111.7 - 6.4 = 105.3 of the two horse is probably best.

My best three are the 2-1-8 but looks like good odds on the 1 if ML holds up.

Bill

You got the #1 at 5-1, nice! Good work on the track to track comparison.

great
 

Hi Bill L

That was great. thanks for the workup
A good showing for your efforts

GS
Bill V.

Result
 

The result is a terrific win by Bill L with the #1 winning easily blasting them from the time the gate popped! Sweet 5/1 mutual is his reward for a tremendous writeup and time spent laying it all out for us.

Go back and check out his extensive work and detailed/clear explanation of his thought processes!!

How tough is it to play mountaineer?
 

Thanks guys,

Wow, I tracked the odds on the winner. ML was 8 but first flashes were about 2:1, then inched up to 3:1 and one minute to post it was 9:1 and final odds were 5:1. Of course the pools were kinda of small. Seemed like a lot of bet switching near the end of the betting period.

Bill