Friday- 3/4 - Mnr Sprint - "E" Runners present - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 03-03-2011, 09:48 AM

This is the 8th at Mountaineer on Saturday night. 6f on the dirt

RichieP · 03-03-2011, 09:51 AM

the field with tandem finishes shown

RichieP · 03-03-2011, 09:52 AM

.,

RichieP · 03-03-2011, 10:00 AM

This taken directly from the "Mind's Eye" intro thread:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3717

If you are so inclined try it as it hopefully will "prime" your thought processes for this race.

Once again this is optional and ALL feedback and participants are WELCOME here

SilentRun · 03-03-2011, 11:10 AM

Ok, I will give it a try...I am a first time starter trying to break my maiden.

1 E 23.8
2 E 22.2
3 E 22.2
4 P
5 E 22.4
6 P
7 P
8 P
9 P
10 P

I predict that the race will be won by: "E"

Ernie

Bill Lyster · 03-03-2011, 01:34 PM

1 - E 23.8 but has won as sustained AND Presser
2 - E 22.2
3 - E 22.2
4 - P
5 - E 21.7
6 - P
7 - P And S
8 - P
9 - E 22.8
10 - P

I think the race will run OTE

bill

PeteC · 03-03-2011, 02:55 PM

1- Ear 23.4 ( all in fifths)
2- Ear 22.1
3- Ear 22.1
4- Pre
5- Ear 22.2
6- Pre
7- Pre
8- Pre
9-Pre

Initial impression is the race will run OTE...

Bill Lyster · 03-03-2011, 03:19 PM

Further analysis:

1 - Has been running close to front recently and won early in slow fractions after winning as a sustained horse against a little faster fractions. All races are at CT which makes it hard to compare to Mnr, but we can look at other horses races at CT for comparison. This horse will have to press or be sustained in this field. By far the best CT horse if you compare 6f part of routes in last three. this comparison would eliminate the 4 - 6 - 9.

2 - 3 - 5 all have shown early tendencies. If you compare the 3 and 5 off their Beulah times I think the 5 is the key horse in this race. The 3 HAS TO HAVE THE LEAD at the first call and best is 22.2 45.3. The 5 could push the 3 at the first call from the sloppy last race at Beulah, which might not be repeated, but probably forces the 3 into uncomfortable territory. So I think the first fraction is less than 22.2 and closer to 22.0. the 5 has run 22.4 twice at Mnr and the 3 could not win at Mnr with a 2 length lead in 22.5. The 2 has pressed 22.2 back by a length at Mnr, but won in a slow 111.7. The 9 is also an early horse but cant compete at these early fractions, so all of these guys are OUT.

With this early competition I think the pace is 22.0 46.0 or perhaps a touch faster. So I think that the winner runs from 4th-6th in the early going.

That leaves 1 - 7 - 8 - 10
With the running line info I would normally be scared of the 7 who has pressed a 22.1 - 45.7 from his second line. BUT this horse has not been on the track for 57 DAYS, no works, nada, zip. I think he will close but not be good enough to win. Off his second line 105.3/111.7 for 5.5 and 6 furlongs

The 8 has won from 3rd, 4th and even placed from 6th at the first call in half mile times near 46. Its last race at this distance, line 1, was 104.9 while pressing from 2nd. So far the best I have seen.

The 10 has had 10 races in 230 days with one 37 day gap between 3 and 4 back. Not bad for this type of horse. Has always done well at this distance pressing slower paces. Won as an SP in line 8 vs 46.7 at Mnr in 107! The only other horse with TP line is the 7 and the 10 is much faster. the predominant style is presser, but at todays 46 pace he has acted more like an early horse. Could be on the board, but NTW for me.

1 horse: 23.0 - 47.0 - 112.7 while on the lead; does not need lead, so he is probably 4-5 back at each call with a nice turn time of 24 or less

8 horse: 22.6 - 46.0 - 58.4 - 104.9/(111.3 - 111.4); last two turn times are 23.4 and 23.9 so this horse will be ready to go when the leaders get tired.

I really don't have a clue about the conversion between CT and Mnr or know how horses translate between the two parks. I would favor the Mnr horse whose raw SRs are 89-88-81-75 vs 81-80-94-90 for the 1 but I note that the 1 was claimed for 8000 and this is 2nd time at 5000 level. the 8 should run closer to the pace than the 1 so if I had to have a first choice it would be the 8

Odds:

1 horse 8:1
8 horse 9/2, at these prices, I like them both!

Good luck,

Bill

Bill V. · 03-03-2011, 08:37 PM

1 pre
2. Early 22.4
3 Early 22.3
4. SUS
5. EArly 22.5
6. Pres
7. Sus
8. Pres
9 Pres
10 Pres
Race will go OTE other than early

PeteC · 03-04-2011, 12:33 PM

Running Styles / Projected Pace:
There are multiple horses who figure in the early mix today. #3 and #5 either need to be on the lead or fighting for it in order to win. They both come from Beu races with fast 1C’s. Both have Mnr races as well. Based on those races I’m projecting a 22.2 or 22.3 (fifths) pace today.

Early or OTE:
I don’t think either will be able to win a duel and win this race. I’m looking for a horse that can run well from 3rd position or further back against a 22.2 or 22.3 1C and win this race OTE.

Match Up:
1- Has won or done well wtw, or from 2nd or 3rd position as well as from 7th. I think CT is a slow track but I can’t take this horse off those times…OUT
2- Has won from 1st 2nd and 5th. Last out, won against a 22.1 1C. Two other wins vs a 22.2 1C…Contender
4- OTE runner coming off a nice win at CT. Nice races from 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th
position. The power line is line 9…Contender
6- Has won from 2nd and 4th position. That was long ago and more
recent races vs 22-and-change have not been so good. OUT
7- Won last race fighting all the way. Going back for a power line
the best I find is line 3…Contender
8- Pressed the pace last out against a mid 22 1C. I used line 2 as the power
line…Contender
9- Last two races are ugly, I can’t go back past them…OUT

I’m left with these, fractions in tenths:
#2 22.2 45.8 58.6 111.7 2-1 1-hd 1-hd 1-1.8
#4 22.5 45.7 57.9 110.6 3-1.5 2-hd 1-hd 1-1.8
#7 22.4 46.2 59.3 112.4 3-2.1 3-3 2-1 1-3
#8 22.4 46.6 59.8 113.5 3-2.1 3-.6 1-3 1-5

#2 and #4 separate themselves from the pack, and between the two I will take #4 to win the race.

03-03-2011, 09:48 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Friday- 3/4 - Mnr Sprint - "E" Runners present This is the 8th at Mountaineer on Saturday night. 6f on the dirt Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-03-2011, 01:34 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	my thoughts so far... 1 - E 23.8 but has won as sustained AND Presser 2 - E 22.2 3 - E 22.2 4 - P 5 - E 21.7 6 - P 7 - P And S 8 - P 9 - E 22.8 10 - P I think the race will run OTE bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 03-03-2011 at 01:35 PM. Reason: ADDED WINNING STYLE PREDICTION

03-03-2011, 08:37 PM	#9
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	lesson 1 pre 2. Early 22.4 3 Early 22.3 4. SUS 5. EArly 22.5 6. Pres 7. Sus 8. Pres 9 Pres 10 Pres Race will go OTE other than early

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03-03-2011, 09:51 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	the field with tandem finishes shown Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-03-2011, 09:52 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	., Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-03-2011, 10:00 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	The Mind's Eye Primer This taken directly from the "Mind's Eye" intro thread: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3717 If you are so inclined try it as it hopefully will "prime" your thought processes for this race. Once again this is optional and ALL feedback and participants are WELCOME here Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

03-03-2011, 11:10 AM	#5
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Mhr r8 Ok, I will give it a try...I am a first time starter trying to break my maiden. 1 E 23.8 2 E 22.2 3 E 22.2 4 P 5 E 22.4 6 P 7 P 8 P 9 P 10 P I predict that the race will be won by: "E" Ernie

03-03-2011, 02:55 PM	#7
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Initial Impressions... 1- Ear 23.4 ( all in fifths) 2- Ear 22.1 3- Ear 22.1 4- Pre 5- Ear 22.2 6- Pre 7- Pre 8- Pre 9-Pre Initial impression is the race will run OTE...

03-03-2011, 03:19 PM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Further analysis: 1 - Has been running close to front recently and won early in slow fractions after winning as a sustained horse against a little faster fractions. All races are at CT which makes it hard to compare to Mnr, but we can look at other horses races at CT for comparison. This horse will have to press or be sustained in this field. By far the best CT horse if you compare 6f part of routes in last three. this comparison would eliminate the 4 - 6 - 9. 2 - 3 - 5 all have shown early tendencies. If you compare the 3 and 5 off their Beulah times I think the 5 is the key horse in this race. The 3 HAS TO HAVE THE LEAD at the first call and best is 22.2 45.3. The 5 could push the 3 at the first call from the sloppy last race at Beulah, which might not be repeated, but probably forces the 3 into uncomfortable territory. So I think the first fraction is less than 22.2 and closer to 22.0. the 5 has run 22.4 twice at Mnr and the 3 could not win at Mnr with a 2 length lead in 22.5. The 2 has pressed 22.2 back by a length at Mnr, but won in a slow 111.7. The 9 is also an early horse but cant compete at these early fractions, so all of these guys are OUT. With this early competition I think the pace is 22.0 46.0 or perhaps a touch faster. So I think that the winner runs from 4th-6th in the early going. That leaves 1 - 7 - 8 - 10 With the running line info I would normally be scared of the 7 who has pressed a 22.1 - 45.7 from his second line. BUT this horse has not been on the track for 57 DAYS, no works, nada, zip. I think he will close but not be good enough to win. Off his second line 105.3/111.7 for 5.5 and 6 furlongs The 8 has won from 3rd, 4th and even placed from 6th at the first call in half mile times near 46. Its last race at this distance, line 1, was 104.9 while pressing from 2nd. So far the best I have seen. The 10 has had 10 races in 230 days with one 37 day gap between 3 and 4 back. Not bad for this type of horse. Has always done well at this distance pressing slower paces. Won as an SP in line 8 vs 46.7 at Mnr in 107! The only other horse with TP line is the 7 and the 10 is much faster. the predominant style is presser, but at todays 46 pace he has acted more like an early horse. Could be on the board, but NTW for me. 1 horse: 23.0 - 47.0 - 112.7 while on the lead; does not need lead, so he is probably 4-5 back at each call with a nice turn time of 24 or less 8 horse: 22.6 - 46.0 - 58.4 - 104.9/(111.3 - 111.4); last two turn times are 23.4 and 23.9 so this horse will be ready to go when the leaders get tired. I really don't have a clue about the conversion between CT and Mnr or know how horses translate between the two parks. I would favor the Mnr horse whose raw SRs are 89-88-81-75 vs 81-80-94-90 for the 1 but I note that the 1 was claimed for 8000 and this is 2nd time at 5000 level. the 8 should run closer to the pace than the 1 so if I had to have a first choice it would be the 8 Odds: 1 horse 8:1 8 horse 9/2, at these prices, I like them both! Good luck, Bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 03-03-2011 at 03:21 PM. Reason: corrected minor typing errors

03-04-2011, 12:33 PM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Running Styles / Projected Pace: There are multiple horses who figure in the early mix today. #3 and #5 either need to be on the lead or fighting for it in order to win. They both come from Beu races with fast 1C’s. Both have Mnr races as well. Based on those races I’m projecting a 22.2 or 22.3 (fifths) pace today. Early or OTE: I don’t think either will be able to win a duel and win this race. I’m looking for a horse that can run well from 3rd position or further back against a 22.2 or 22.3 1C and win this race OTE. Match Up: 1- Has won or done well wtw, or from 2nd or 3rd position as well as from 7th. I think CT is a slow track but I can’t take this horse off those times…OUT 2- Has won from 1st 2nd and 5th. Last out, won against a 22.1 1C. Two other wins vs a 22.2 1C…Contender 4- OTE runner coming off a nice win at CT. Nice races from 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th position. The power line is line 9…Contender 6- Has won from 2nd and 4th position. That was long ago and more recent races vs 22-and-change have not been so good. OUT 7- Won last race fighting all the way. Going back for a power line the best I find is line 3…Contender 8- Pressed the pace last out against a mid 22 1C. I used line 2 as the power line…Contender 9- Last two races are ugly, I can’t go back past them…OUT I’m left with these, fractions in tenths: #2 22.2 45.8 58.6 111.7 2-1 1-hd 1-hd 1-1.8 #4 22.5 45.7 57.9 110.6 3-1.5 2-hd 1-hd 1-1.8 #7 22.4 46.2 59.3 112.4 3-2.1 3-3 2-1 1-3 #8 22.4 46.6 59.8 113.5 3-2.1 3-.6 1-3 1-5 #2 and #4 separate themselves from the pack, and between the two I will take #4 to win the race.