New Ideas
 

Want to discover a new idea, when you read a forum go into it with an open mind. It isn't important that you copy exactly what the author is saying, some times you will benefit more when you put your own twist on it. My positioning handicapping which I spent over 5 years developing came from Jim Crammers ROS Positioning method which I read about, although today it bears no resemblance to his it was ONLY from reading his method that I got the idea and was able to develope this method which is 90% of my handicapping.

Sometimes you will find a new gem. Just becouse people have been using Speed, Class, Breeding etc etc.. for years that doesn't mean that these are the only ways to beat the game.There are plently more you just have to find them, but you will need an OPEN mind.

Mike.

By position are you speaking akin to Brohammer which, TO MY UNDERSTANDING is exclusive of pace?

If that is the case, let's say I run about the same pace all the time and I go up against some one like Carl Lewis. Where will I be? 40 lengths back.

If I raced John Candy, I might be up along side of him

Without pace, unless you are the only speed, position, as I understand it, doesn't mean much. That is one of the many reasons that segmental velocity handicapping discovers so many improving horses hidden amongst beaten lengths.

I agree Mike, I find far more horses run to their comfort zone positionally rather than how fast the can run. A presser who sits 2 of a 44 pace will be a bear when he sits 2 off a 46 pace. That is why so many slow pace races produce low speed figures. The press flying home off a 46 just cannot duplicate what he can do flying home off a 44.

Positional analysis, to me is far more important than the velocity analysis. The velocity part, for me, tells me if the horse can be where he needs to be today.

slow paces produce inordinately HIGHER pace ratings since the animal has NO exhaustion problems and gives inaccurate late runs..AND the horse is usually CLOSER to a pace that they would normally be.....GIFT races I call them.

To MAINTAIN any position in a race requires one of two things:1) the field NEVER CONTENDING (often the case and a source of repeated huge place prices at all tracks) "knowing" that you are going to come back to them (and most often the field mis-calculates) or 2) your horse has to HAVE SHOWN the abillity to stay at the intermediate pace fractions of the field.

Position in a past performance line cannot predict maintenance of position in today's matchup without considering the pace of the race TODAY.

3 earlys
 

Hi Tim

I have to go to the thinking that the velocity a horse runs
is not as reliable as it appears in a paceline
but position is

These three horses were entered and ran in race 6 tonight from the Meadowlands I am seeing all there of these horse are going to go
just fast enough to get the lead The factional times for each horse vary
faster or slower there is no pattern to me other than one of these
3 is going to be position 1 the velocity figure ? it all depends on how fast the leader runs once it gets the lead and fights off the other need to lead horse
The total way a horse uses its energy is the key to rating pace lines
Its the way the horse runs the total 3 fractions That incremental velocity

One of the key plays I look for the presser ranked #1 early. I find they seldom take the lead, unlike EPs, and have a lot in reserve for the stretch run.
The EP seem to go for the lead when it can, but the P seldom or never does.
The better I do assigning E,EP,P, the better I do overall. The RS tells me what I can expect the horse to do against various velocity scenarios. Just my preference, but I always make the RS call myself - I never rely on a computer to do that. I at least verify any programs call visually.

No. It is different.

Jim Crammer assigned running position of the horse with his rank of first call time.. example EP1 would be a Early, Presser horse who has the fastest first fraction of all the horses in the race... etc.. etc...

I assign position by where a horse likes to be positioned and then alter this by the effect other horses will have on the horse. I am predicting his position in relation to the field. I realize that SPEED of a fractional time has an effect on his positioning of past races, but by eye balling position in its entirety some of the time element will be taken into account naturally.Sub conciously my mind will make these adjustments, my mind MAY be seeing times.


What I am trying to do is see the layout of the field as if I was seeing it from above the field, just using a little different approach, thats all.The benefit for me is higher prices.After my Positioning I do use either an Early or Late rating, just crude as Dick Smidht would say good enough numbers every race this is done. Its just that Early/ late numbers only take me about 5 minutes per race, positioning takes me sometimes 40 minutes a race to do.



This was just an example of using an open mind to get a new insight.

Here is another one. A lot of people have bashed Mike Pizzolla with his release of black magic program. Even though I have no attention of buying his program I did gain much benefit in viewing his free video. He gave me a NEW IDEA.. I never would have thought on myown about creating a program that can print out a sheet for me telling me what races at a given track have race shape situations that I like to see, currently I have to open up each race one at a time, which is time consumming, but thanks to Mike P. I now can see that this can be programmed. So thank you Mike P.



Whatever it is before you dismiss it, maybe you may be able to alter something you read and come up with something new and you alone will have it.

Mike.

After reading what I wrote I can see that it wasn't very clear, concerning positioning. What I should have included is that what I do is have 10 zones each 1 lenght or 10 feet beginning with the lead horse and ending with the last place horses for both the first and second calls.I place my horses in these zones as I predict they will be in based upon todays match up.This allows me to see how the horses will space themselves out. From this I get to see which horses will be out of position depending upon my version of race shapes or which will have an advantage based upon positioning then I look at my early or late rating to see if this advantage can be exploited . Only absolute need to lead types do I have to be concerned with their running style, otherwise my positioning is not based upon running styles.


Mike.

okay HOW?

I assumed that the reference to Mr. Brohammers positioning refers to a horses running stlye . My positioning refers to the placement which I see each horse being in relation to the field.I am not concerned with running styles( exception need to leads) like seperating pressers from sustain, for ME it is more beneficial to see that a horse I am looking at will as an example be in 4th position at an ESTIMATED 5 beaten lenghts( Zone 5), with 2 horses in zone 1( front of race) and 1 horse in zone2( the 10 foot area behind zone 1).With zones 3 and 4 empty.


Yes a faster pace may mean a horse will not be as close position wise but it may not... At random I opened yesterdays breeders cup pps for the classic.. looking at #1. Go Between

His first call beaten lengths..
9 1/4,,,3,,,3.5,,,13,,,11,,3.75 ,,,2.5,,,8.25,,,4.5,,,3,,,2.5,,,3


These beaten lenghts are against all different fractional times sometimes as you can see a horse will be further back when he runs against a faster pace, but not always... This is why positioning is mostly ART and not science( well it is for MY VERSION).


Do horses run against the clock or against each other, for some horses their position is determined by time i.e. they just run the same times over and over again, for many others they will adjust their position to keep themselves with the other horses. This is evident by a eye ball scan.


All I can say is it works for me, since I have been doing this I get more overlays than I ever got in the past. Maybe the reason is that I have seperated myself from the crowd, I don't know. If it aint broke don't fix it.

Mike.

wps
 

:)
In all the races I have watched they seem to pay off the
winners. Not the horse who ran faster or slower than they usually run

:)

Jim Bradshaw said once " it don't matter how you get the winner jus gettem"


Mike.

that is a new one: ZONES......never ever heard of that one.

Looks like Jim knew

Nice, Mike.

I think you tapped into an element/ingredient of Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw's MatchUp/Voodoo.

"How does this horse like to run?" "How and from where does he like to win?"

"What does he do his best in?"

And maybe that's why computer ESP and Visual ESP have differences.

Good post, Thanks for sharing.

VoodooFan

p.s. It would be interesting to see all the "personally" trained and successful students of THE HAT to pick a race card together, privately, and try to crush a card with a team Pick 6 or something. Maybe at a Breeders Cup or something. They ALL walk into the track with "Stetsons" on. That would be interesting. Might also be a learning experience.

I can count on one hand the number of horses that JUST run enough to keep position and do not follow velocities. They are out there but are rare. Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons was the first to note it for me with his comments on Nashua: "that one ran JUST enough and not a bit more to keep up."

If this where true then horses would hardly ever have the same Beaten lenghts at the first call, which they do a lot of the time.

If a horse is going to always adjust his position depending upon the speed of the lead as you are saying then he should run the same first call fractions over and over again which SELDOM happens.


Horse racing is seldom 1 + 1 = 2


Mike.

Hence the title of this thread.

The reason you never heard of Zones is becouse I created it as part of my method after reading Jim Crammers work on positions. The only people who I have talked about it to are people who visit this site and 2 friends of mine at the track I visit.

This is my method which I pay my rent with,I have no intention of selling it unless it would no longer work then I would be willing to have it published.



This was meant as just an example of using an open mind to discover new ideas. I am not telling anyone to abandone their methods, There are MANY ways to beat this game.



If a person never looks outside the box they will never see what they may gain.


Mike.

When i first found this site and read some fella was using raw times to win races i thought, aye right

Thanks for sharing The Hat and Richie

An example?
 

From the BC Sprint, this is Cost of Freedom, his last 6 wins at 6 to 7 furlongs.
I call him visually an Early Presser - he can take the lead, he can sit close, never more than 2 back at the first two calls.
Pacelines

Looking at his Energy, he hardly seems to be very consistent in how he runs.

Buy IT? "Early horses win far more than they should." Dr. William Quirin "Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping." Anyone reading much about handicapping, AND BELEIVING IT by data back up, knows this has remained consistent for years and years and years. Horses closer to the pace win far more than they should and you can't be up front unless you can run earlier OR you are a stakes horse (the very very few who have adapatable speed). Simple.

Those that get early position by default (lucky breaks, and you would realize how often that happens by watching thousands of breaks UP CLOSE, a few feet from the assistant starters), rarely repeat that luck.

And this....

And his E/L history

Now, my question - is this an early horse or a late horse?

Having now watched EVERY break in EVERY race for two years (by actual
count it is well over 1500 races), getting to know the difficulties
the starter and assistant starters have in keeping the enclosed
animals attentive and in line, the break, even in horses USED to be up
on the lead, are under so many extraneous factors, totally out of
control of the handicapper, that it borders on randomness.

Subtle, tiny factors with things like a horse relieving themsleves
just as the gate opens, stepping slightly back into the rear doors
JUST as the doors open, turning their head in response to the
assistant starter's pressure, the reponse of tailing animals on the
verge of flipping, and a myriad of other uncommon things EFFECTS every
break every day putting many horses near, or close to the lead, when it
was nothing but luck that did it.

Unless one is OUT on top in the first flight each and every time, one
should take the break with a HUGE grain of salt race to race.

Two things about that good sprinter: FORM CYCLE (improving over last three) and ran it's later runs against one of the slower early paces (3rd 7th and 8th lines back when not in recent form) while not being all that competitive so it is not a relevant line. Horses run their BEST style when more competitive in the SAME range of e/l ...even these really good ones

Not competitive? He won races 1,2,3 and 7,8 9.
Is he an early or late horse?

One last word RELATIVELY having had a GIFT of a slow early pace/

Very good question Tom

Absolutely magnificent stuff Mike! Your sharing here is most appreciated by me.

When I stop having an open/receptive mind to new things I will have for all intents/purposes stopped living. I also would have missed out on a 2 year experience with my mentor that turned my life around for the better and learning the matchup was just a little ripple in the ocean of knowledge,love and respect I gained from that man. All this starting at 45 years old! :)

Thank you Mike and keep knocking them dead man!

Tom
 

I thought you would like this

Here is Cost first running styles

and in KGEN half furlong readouts

Whether one agrees with him or not, to be able to do that for this reason is as good, maybe equal or better, than multiple 20 race cycles or statistical field test with real money to come to some conclusion of the premise.

Win or be Homeless.....to do that, it takes balls of iron and proof month in and month out that whatever premise is used , works, at least, for him.

Win consistantly or expect an eviction notice on your door..., start looking for a storage place......that's not talkin, THAT'S WALKIN.

Putting your life in the hands of your method or belief..., it's GOTS to work, at least, for him, if nothing or no one else at the very worst, to stay off the street.

Win or be Homeless...., wow, guts and belief in what one is doing.

And NOT being Homeless is your PROOF........wow...,...TITANIUM GONADS.

So how much MORE pressure, how much MORE field test intensity does a premise need for validation than THAT!?!?

Good going Mike, thanks for sharing.

VoodooFan

Horses, the very good ones, REACT to the pace in whatever means NECESSARY, WHEN THEY CAN.....but these represent the very best ones (under 1% of all horses out there)

Me and you are comming from this at 2 completely different paths. A lot of the things that you are stuck on I did research on over 10 years ago and have moved on and taken it to a higher level. What I mean by this is that I am looking at making PROJECTIONS, I have a set of data, ok, with this data what do I see will happen TODAY.If you study the pps you will see that horses have a range for BOTH position and fractional times, for some horses this range will be larger than for other horses and sometimes these ranges will lenghten or shorten for different reasons.This is a method to see both form cycles and class. When you understand this you then have taken your game to the next level becouse you are able to make a better prediction of what is going to happen TODAY which is the most important thing.


Mike.

Hey ****************** probably before your first visit to a race course. PROJECTIONS? part of the procedure since the 60's.

One thing that medial school and 30 years of clinical practice taught me: you don't stand still. Hereclitus spoke it well" "You never step in the same river twice." Things change and the one who doesn't understand that gets behind rapidly.
Funny stuff

My handicapping group actually used to have a "line" for those people who had it all figured out never re-evaluating what they were doing. When one would come across us there at the track with a computer, they would usually say something akin to "I have been handicapping 40 years and never_______(FILL IN THE BLANK)" to which we would chirp back:"No, you have handicapped ONE year and just repeated it 39 times."

ALL that counts.

From the teller window to your landlords pocket. You get to stay another month.

Neither teller or landlord care about your experience, expertise, or beliefs.

Teller : " Do you have the winning ticket? " or " this ticket is not a winner, sir . "

Landlord : " Do you have the rent money or is a trip to the courthouse for eviction notice going to be on my " to do " list today? "

Some successful people are successful because of natural talent, genius , goal oriented qualities, from successful family, had successful mentor,etc.

But there is a percentage of people who did only ONE thing, successfully, and simply did it over and over; as long as it continues to get the average result year in and year out. They simply expand it and/or duplicated it in the multitudes.

And then again, there are people who are talented, naturally gifted, have all type of factors in their favor, but the simple discipline of doing one thing, continuously and successfully that is proven to consistantly work thru time is absent from their personality....usually because they percieve it to be "small" or "insignificant", not understanding that a building is constructed from the ground up; the ground- filthy , dirty dirt. But no building can escape its necessity. Then assembled brick by brick.

They either have :the latest, the biggest, all the success all at once, or will do without. Even if some old stuff still works.

You see it in all disciples , the person with all the factors in their favor FAIL to capitalize or even use 20% where the person who does ONE thing well and consistantly uses 90%-110% of what he has always is either slightly ahead of them or ahead by leaps and bounds and they don't get why.

All they can do is ridicule.

What is success? From whose perspective?

Can a Billionaire with $300 billion dollars call a Millionaire with $30 million dollars " unsuccessful "?

Should he call him and say, " stop what you are doing , since you do not equal MY success, you are ridiculing yourself....your methods mock and expose your intellectual shortcomings...also giving light to how dated your premise is ".

VoodooFan