New Ideas - Pace and Cap

MIKE1121 · 10-24-2008, 03:33 PM

Want to discover a new idea, when you read a forum go into it with an open mind. It isn't important that you copy exactly what the author is saying, some times you will benefit more when you put your own twist on it. My positioning handicapping which I spent over 5 years developing came from Jim Crammers ROS Positioning method which I read about, although today it bears no resemblance to his it was ONLY from reading his method that I got the idea and was able to develope this method which is 90% of my handicapping.

Sometimes you will find a new gem. Just becouse people have been using Speed, Class, Breeding etc etc.. for years that doesn't mean that these are the only ways to beat the game.There are plently more you just have to find them, but you will need an OPEN mind.

Mike.

Tim Y · 10-24-2008, 03:47 PM

By position are you speaking akin to Brohammer which, TO MY UNDERSTANDING is exclusive of pace?

If that is the case, let's say I run about the same pace all the time and I go up against some one like Carl Lewis. Where will I be? 40 lengths back.

If I raced John Candy, I might be up along side of him

Without pace, unless you are the only speed, position, as I understand it, doesn't mean much. That is one of the many reasons that segmental velocity handicapping discovers so many improving horses hidden amongst beaten lengths.

tom · 10-24-2008, 04:15 PM

I agree Mike, I find far more horses run to their comfort zone positionally rather than how fast the can run. A presser who sits 2 of a 44 pace will be a bear when he sits 2 off a 46 pace. That is why so many slow pace races produce low speed figures. The press flying home off a 46 just cannot duplicate what he can do flying home off a 44.

Positional analysis, to me is far more important than the velocity analysis. The velocity part, for me, tells me if the horse can be where he needs to be today.

Tim Y · 10-24-2008, 04:17 PM

slow paces produce inordinately HIGHER pace ratings since the animal has NO exhaustion problems and gives inaccurate late runs..AND the horse is usually CLOSER to a pace that they would normally be.....GIFT races I call them.

Tim Y · 10-24-2008, 04:34 PM

To MAINTAIN any position in a race requires one of two things:1) the field NEVER CONTENDING (often the case and a source of repeated huge place prices at all tracks) "knowing" that you are going to come back to them (and most often the field mis-calculates) or 2) your horse has to HAVE SHOWN the abillity to stay at the intermediate pace fractions of the field.

Position in a past performance line cannot predict maintenance of position in today's matchup without considering the pace of the race TODAY.

Bill V. · 10-24-2008, 10:10 PM

Hi Tim

I have to go to the thinking that the velocity a horse runs
is not as reliable as it appears in a paceline
but position is

These three horses were entered and ran in race 6 tonight from the Meadowlands I am seeing all there of these horse are going to go
just fast enough to get the lead The factional times for each horse vary
faster or slower there is no pattern to me other than one of these
3 is going to be position 1 the velocity figure ? it all depends on how fast the leader runs once it gets the lead and fights off the other need to lead horse
The total way a horse uses its energy is the key to rating pace lines
Its the way the horse runs the total 3 fractions That incremental velocity

tom · 10-25-2008, 12:48 AM

One of the key plays I look for the presser ranked #1 early. I find they seldom take the lead, unlike EPs, and have a lot in reserve for the stretch run.
The EP seem to go for the lead when it can, but the P seldom or never does.
The better I do assigning E,EP,P, the better I do overall. The RS tells me what I can expect the horse to do against various velocity scenarios. Just my preference, but I always make the RS call myself - I never rely on a computer to do that. I at least verify any programs call visually.

MIKE1121 · 10-25-2008, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

By position are you speaking akin to Brohammer which, TO MY UNDERSTANDING is exclusive of pace?

.

No. It is different.

MIKE1121 · 10-25-2008, 02:42 AM

Jim Crammer assigned running position of the horse with his rank of first call time.. example EP1 would be a Early, Presser horse who has the fastest first fraction of all the horses in the race... etc.. etc...

I assign position by where a horse likes to be positioned and then alter this by the effect other horses will have on the horse. I am predicting his position in relation to the field. I realize that SPEED of a fractional time has an effect on his positioning of past races, but by eye balling position in its entirety some of the time element will be taken into account naturally.Sub conciously my mind will make these adjustments, my mind MAY be seeing times.

What I am trying to do is see the layout of the field as if I was seeing it from above the field, just using a little different approach, thats all.The benefit for me is higher prices.After my Positioning I do use either an Early or Late rating, just crude as Dick Smidht would say good enough numbers every race this is done. Its just that Early/ late numbers only take me about 5 minutes per race, positioning takes me sometimes 40 minutes a race to do.

This was just an example of using an open mind to get a new insight.

Here is another one. A lot of people have bashed Mike Pizzolla with his release of black magic program. Even though I have no attention of buying his program I did gain much benefit in viewing his free video. He gave me a NEW IDEA.. I never would have thought on myown about creating a program that can print out a sheet for me telling me what races at a given track have race shape situations that I like to see, currently I have to open up each race one at a time, which is time consumming, but thanks to Mike P. I now can see that this can be programmed. So thank you Mike P.

Whatever it is before you dismiss it, maybe you may be able to alter something you read and come up with something new and you alone will have it.

Mike.

MIKE1121 · 10-25-2008, 03:29 PM

After reading what I wrote I can see that it wasn't very clear, concerning positioning. What I should have included is that what I do is have 10 zones each 1 lenght or 10 feet beginning with the lead horse and ending with the last place horses for both the first and second calls.I place my horses in these zones as I predict they will be in based upon todays match up.This allows me to see how the horses will space themselves out. From this I get to see which horses will be out of position depending upon my version of race shapes or which will have an advantage based upon positioning then I look at my early or late rating to see if this advantage can be exploited . Only absolute need to lead types do I have to be concerned with their running style, otherwise my positioning is not based upon running styles.

Mike.

10-24-2008, 03:47 PM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	By position are you speaking akin to Brohammer which, TO MY UNDERSTANDING is exclusive of pace? If that is the case, let's say I run about the same pace all the time and I go up against some one like Carl Lewis. Where will I be? 40 lengths back. If I raced John Candy, I might be up along side of him Without pace, unless you are the only speed, position, as I understand it, doesn't mean much. That is one of the many reasons that segmental velocity handicapping discovers so many improving horses hidden amongst beaten lengths. Last edited by Tim Y; 10-24-2008 at 04:00 PM.

10-24-2008, 04:17 PM	#4
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	slow paces produce inordinately HIGHER pace ratings since the animal has NO exhaustion problems and gives inaccurate late runs..AND the horse is usually CLOSER to a pace that they would normally be.....GIFT races I call them. Last edited by Tim Y; 10-24-2008 at 04:24 PM.

10-24-2008, 10:10 PM	#6
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	3 earlys Hi Tim I have to go to the thinking that the velocity a horse runs is not as reliable as it appears in a paceline but position is These three horses were entered and ran in race 6 tonight from the Meadowlands I am seeing all there of these horse are going to go just fast enough to get the lead The factional times for each horse vary faster or slower there is no pattern to me other than one of these 3 is going to be position 1 the velocity figure ? it all depends on how fast the leader runs once it gets the lead and fights off the other need to lead horse The total way a horse uses its energy is the key to rating pace lines Its the way the horse runs the total 3 fractions That incremental velocity Attached Images

10-24-2008, 03:33 PM	#1
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	New Ideas Want to discover a new idea, when you read a forum go into it with an open mind. It isn't important that you copy exactly what the author is saying, some times you will benefit more when you put your own twist on it. My positioning handicapping which I spent over 5 years developing came from Jim Crammers ROS Positioning method which I read about, although today it bears no resemblance to his it was ONLY from reading his method that I got the idea and was able to develope this method which is 90% of my handicapping. Sometimes you will find a new gem. Just becouse people have been using Speed, Class, Breeding etc etc.. for years that doesn't mean that these are the only ways to beat the game.There are plently more you just have to find them, but you will need an OPEN mind. Mike.

10-24-2008, 04:15 PM	#3
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	I agree Mike, I find far more horses run to their comfort zone positionally rather than how fast the can run. A presser who sits 2 of a 44 pace will be a bear when he sits 2 off a 46 pace. That is why so many slow pace races produce low speed figures. The press flying home off a 46 just cannot duplicate what he can do flying home off a 44. Positional analysis, to me is far more important than the velocity analysis. The velocity part, for me, tells me if the horse can be where he needs to be today.

10-24-2008, 04:34 PM	#5
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	To MAINTAIN any position in a race requires one of two things:1) the field NEVER CONTENDING (often the case and a source of repeated huge place prices at all tracks) "knowing" that you are going to come back to them (and most often the field mis-calculates) or 2) your horse has to HAVE SHOWN the abillity to stay at the intermediate pace fractions of the field. Position in a past performance line cannot predict maintenance of position in today's matchup without considering the pace of the race TODAY.

10-25-2008, 12:48 AM	#7
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	One of the key plays I look for the presser ranked #1 early. I find they seldom take the lead, unlike EPs, and have a lot in reserve for the stretch run. The EP seem to go for the lead when it can, but the P seldom or never does. The better I do assigning E,EP,P, the better I do overall. The RS tells me what I can expect the horse to do against various velocity scenarios. Just my preference, but I always make the RS call myself - I never rely on a computer to do that. I at least verify any programs call visually.

10-25-2008, 02:42 AM	#9
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	Jim Crammer assigned running position of the horse with his rank of first call time.. example EP1 would be a Early, Presser horse who has the fastest first fraction of all the horses in the race... etc.. etc... I assign position by where a horse likes to be positioned and then alter this by the effect other horses will have on the horse. I am predicting his position in relation to the field. I realize that SPEED of a fractional time has an effect on his positioning of past races, but by eye balling position in its entirety some of the time element will be taken into account naturally.Sub conciously my mind will make these adjustments, my mind MAY be seeing times. What I am trying to do is see the layout of the field as if I was seeing it from above the field, just using a little different approach, thats all.The benefit for me is higher prices.After my Positioning I do use either an Early or Late rating, just crude as Dick Smidht would say good enough numbers every race this is done. Its just that Early/ late numbers only take me about 5 minutes per race, positioning takes me sometimes 40 minutes a race to do. This was just an example of using an open mind to get a new insight. Here is another one. A lot of people have bashed Mike Pizzolla with his release of black magic program. Even though I have no attention of buying his program I did gain much benefit in viewing his free video. He gave me a NEW IDEA.. I never would have thought on myown about creating a program that can print out a sheet for me telling me what races at a given track have race shape situations that I like to see, currently I have to open up each race one at a time, which is time consumming, but thanks to Mike P. I now can see that this can be programmed. So thank you Mike P. Whatever it is before you dismiss it, maybe you may be able to alter something you read and come up with something new and you alone will have it. Mike.

10-25-2008, 03:29 PM	#10
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	After reading what I wrote I can see that it wasn't very clear, concerning positioning. What I should have included is that what I do is have 10 zones each 1 lenght or 10 feet beginning with the lead horse and ending with the last place horses for both the first and second calls.I place my horses in these zones as I predict they will be in based upon todays match up.This allows me to see how the horses will space themselves out. From this I get to see which horses will be out of position depending upon my version of race shapes or which will have an advantage based upon positioning then I look at my early or late rating to see if this advantage can be exploited . Only absolute need to lead types do I have to be concerned with their running style, otherwise my positioning is not based upon running styles. Mike.