Friday- 3/4 - Mnr Sprint - "E" Runners present
 

This is the 8th at Mountaineer on Saturday night. 6f on the dirt

the field with tandem finishes shown

.,:)

The Mind's Eye Primer
 

This taken directly from the "Mind's Eye" intro thread:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3717

If you are so inclined try it as it hopefully will "prime" your thought processes for this race.


Once again this is optional and ALL feedback and participants are WELCOME here :)

Mhr r8
 

Ok, I will give it a try...I am a first time starter trying to break my maiden.


1 E 23.8
2 E 22.2
3 E 22.2
4 P
5 E 22.4
6 P
7 P
8 P
9 P
10 P

I predict that the race will be won by: "E"

Ernie

my thoughts so far...
 

1 - E 23.8 but has won as sustained AND Presser
2 - E 22.2
3 - E 22.2
4 - P
5 - E 21.7
6 - P
7 - P And S
8 - P
9 - E 22.8
10 - P

I think the race will run OTE

bill

Initial Impressions...
 

1- Ear 23.4 ( all in fifths)
2- Ear 22.1
3- Ear 22.1
4- Pre
5- Ear 22.2
6- Pre
7- Pre
8- Pre
9-Pre

Initial impression is the race will run OTE...

Further analysis:

1 - Has been running close to front recently and won early in slow fractions after winning as a sustained horse against a little faster fractions. All races are at CT which makes it hard to compare to Mnr, but we can look at other horses races at CT for comparison. This horse will have to press or be sustained in this field. By far the best CT horse if you compare 6f part of routes in last three. this comparison would eliminate the 4 - 6 - 9.

2 - 3 - 5 all have shown early tendencies. If you compare the 3 and 5 off their Beulah times I think the 5 is the key horse in this race. The 3 HAS TO HAVE THE LEAD at the first call and best is 22.2 45.3. The 5 could push the 3 at the first call from the sloppy last race at Beulah, which might not be repeated, but probably forces the 3 into uncomfortable territory. So I think the first fraction is less than 22.2 and closer to 22.0. the 5 has run 22.4 twice at Mnr and the 3 could not win at Mnr with a 2 length lead in 22.5. The 2 has pressed 22.2 back by a length at Mnr, but won in a slow 111.7. The 9 is also an early horse but cant compete at these early fractions, so all of these guys are OUT.

With this early competition I think the pace is 22.0 46.0 or perhaps a touch faster. So I think that the winner runs from 4th-6th in the early going.


That leaves 1 - 7 - 8 - 10
With the running line info I would normally be scared of the 7 who has pressed a 22.1 - 45.7 from his second line. BUT this horse has not been on the track for 57 DAYS, no works, nada, zip. I think he will close but not be good enough to win. Off his second line 105.3/111.7 for 5.5 and 6 furlongs

The 8 has won from 3rd, 4th and even placed from 6th at the first call in half mile times near 46. Its last race at this distance, line 1, was 104.9 while pressing from 2nd. So far the best I have seen.

The 10 has had 10 races in 230 days with one 37 day gap between 3 and 4 back. Not bad for this type of horse. Has always done well at this distance pressing slower paces. Won as an SP in line 8 vs 46.7 at Mnr in 107! The only other horse with TP line is the 7 and the 10 is much faster. the predominant style is presser, but at todays 46 pace he has acted more like an early horse. Could be on the board, but NTW for me.

1 horse: 23.0 - 47.0 - 112.7 while on the lead; does not need lead, so he is probably 4-5 back at each call with a nice turn time of 24 or less

8 horse: 22.6 - 46.0 - 58.4 - 104.9/(111.3 - 111.4); last two turn times are 23.4 and 23.9 so this horse will be ready to go when the leaders get tired.

I really don't have a clue about the conversion between CT and Mnr or know how horses translate between the two parks. I would favor the Mnr horse whose raw SRs are 89-88-81-75 vs 81-80-94-90 for the 1 but I note that the 1 was claimed for 8000 and this is 2nd time at 5000 level. the 8 should run closer to the pace than the 1 so if I had to have a first choice it would be the 8

Odds:

1 horse 8:1
8 horse 9/2, at these prices, I like them both!

Good luck,


Bill

lesson
 

1 pre
2. Early 22.4
3 Early 22.3
4. SUS
5. EArly 22.5
6. Pres
7. Sus
8. Pres
9 Pres
10 Pres
Race will go OTE other than early

Running Styles / Projected Pace:
There are multiple horses who figure in the early mix today. #3 and #5 either need to be on the lead or fighting for it in order to win. They both come from Beu races with fast 1C’s. Both have Mnr races as well. Based on those races I’m projecting a 22.2 or 22.3 (fifths) pace today.

Early or OTE:
I don’t think either will be able to win a duel and win this race. I’m looking for a horse that can run well from 3rd position or further back against a 22.2 or 22.3 1C and win this race OTE.

Match Up:
1- Has won or done well wtw, or from 2nd or 3rd position as well as from 7th. I think CT is a slow track but I can’t take this horse off those times…OUT
2- Has won from 1st 2nd and 5th. Last out, won against a 22.1 1C. Two other wins vs a 22.2 1C…Contender
4- OTE runner coming off a nice win at CT. Nice races from 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th
position. The power line is line 9…Contender
6- Has won from 2nd and 4th position. That was long ago and more
recent races vs 22-and-change have not been so good. OUT
7- Won last race fighting all the way. Going back for a power line
the best I find is line 3…Contender
8- Pressed the pace last out against a mid 22 1C. I used line 2 as the power
line…Contender
9- Last two races are ugly, I can’t go back past them…OUT

I’m left with these, fractions in tenths:
#2 22.2 45.8 58.6 111.7 2-1 1-hd 1-hd 1-1.8
#4 22.5 45.7 57.9 110.6 3-1.5 2-hd 1-hd 1-1.8
#7 22.4 46.2 59.3 112.4 3-2.1 3-3 2-1 1-3
#8 22.4 46.6 59.8 113.5 3-2.1 3-.6 1-3 1-5

#2 and #4 separate themselves from the pack, and between the two I will take #4 to win the race.

Changes
 

The track is muddy

Scratches are the #3 and #4

And the 7 most recently scratched....

With the scratches there is still some early pressure from the 5. The 2 has won four in a row and broke from the gate 2-2-1-4. the five broke 1-4-1-4-1 in its last 5 and only won when it fought for the lead. With the sloppy track this one might get to the lead first vs the 2 but the 5 can't keep up with the 2's turn time of 24.0 or less and persevere to the finish. If the 5 bothers the 2 early, the 2 can still finish in 105.8 or .9.

I think the dynamics of this race have changed and the 2 should wire the field with the 8 closing. 8 has been off 83 days and its last is its best. If he can repeat that race he probably wins here.

Still don't know how to rate the 1 off only CT races. IF SOMEONE COULD POST THE ADJUSTED SCREENS FOR THE 1-2-8 THAT MIGHT CLEAR MATTERS UP a little bit.

Thanks,

Bill

match up
 

I will go with the 5 and 8

2 and 8 are early energy runners 8 edges the 2 to the MP

3 4 7 have been scratched

Good Skill
Bill V.
Miami Calder parking lot

A little chart research at CT shows that a 1:20 time for 6.5 furlongs is very fast; it was run in the last week in an allowance race.

In the last five days 7 seven furlong races at or about todays class averaged 128.8 whereas for the horses in today's field it looks like the average 5.5 furlong time is about 106.50, the difference being 22.3

Note that the 1 is the top APV horse by a nice margin and the #2 class horse. The 1 was on the lead at the 6 furlong call in its last three at CT. If I subtract 22.3 from the finish times I get 105.6, 104.0, and another race at or near 104.

All of these races would be competitve today against this field where the 111.7 - 6.4 = 105.3 of the two horse is probably best.

My best three are the 2-1-8 but looks like good odds on the 1 if ML holds up.

Bill

You got the #1 at 5-1, nice! Good work on the track to track comparison.

great
 

Hi Bill L

That was great. thanks for the workup
A good showing for your efforts

GS
Bill V.

Result
 

The result is a terrific win by Bill L with the #1 winning easily blasting them from the time the gate popped! Sweet 5/1 mutual is his reward for a tremendous writeup and time spent laying it all out for us.

Go back and check out his extensive work and detailed/clear explanation of his thought processes!!

How tough is it to play mountaineer?
 

Thanks guys,

Wow, I tracked the odds on the winner. ML was 8 but first flashes were about 2:1, then inched up to 3:1 and one minute to post it was 9:1 and final odds were 5:1. Of course the pools were kinda of small. Seemed like a lot of bet switching near the end of the betting period.

Bill