Big mistake
 

Hi All

This is what I get for NOT listening to what the program tells me

So you would look at the sustained horses the top 2 are 3 & 7

Result

3 wins 13.40

7 run 2nd at (14-1) 3-7 exacta 194.00

I only have myself to blame,I did put 1,4.5 on top of 7. Funny
thing is I was all happy I thought I hit it. I got the 3 & 4 confused about
it.

Hope Ray doesn't see this he will give me He** about it

I don't mind putting up my mistakes. hope others learn from it


Jeff

Hey Jeff

hope it is okay if i ask some questions
i am not an energy program user, so if this is dumb, please excuse it

i notice a LOT of the time you guys post these shots
that there are generally 2 horses, not 3, for the paragon A, paragon B and energizer
a lot of the time, one of the 2 wins - maybe not the one expected, but one of the 2

assuming you picked good contenders

why not bet the 2 horses from the paragon A,B,energizer
so in this case, the 1 and 3
over your other contenders 5,4,4,7

so 2 win bets for $10 each on the 1 and 3
and then a $2 exacta with 1,3/1,3,4,5,7

that would be an 8 bet or $16 exacta

my guess it would come down to how well you get the top 2 in your contenders as far as profitability

when i am feeling better, will go back thru the previous energy screen shots on the site and see what kind of percentage it shows

best of luck
dan

is this the 1st at parx today
5.5 on dirt?

I forgot this is 1st race today at Parx

Fisrt of all Dan hope that you feel better, I'm sure he could use
some well wishes here. I am not at liberty to say what it is.

Dan never thought of that, I'm not sure that would work with me but
probably would with Ray

It's a good idea though.

Jeff

going back a year of energy posts i get this







shoeless - 10/19 r8 parx
4 Hough = paragon a, b
1 Spike = energizer
left out the place horse

4 Hough paid $7.60 to win


shoeless - 11/10 r1 parx
1 crimson = paragon a, energizer
3 sushi = paragon b
4,5,7 other contenders

3 Crimson paid $13,80 to win
$2 exacta 3/7 paid $194.00


shoeless - 10/7 r2 delaware
4 = paragon a,b,energizer
other contenders 2,7,9

left out place horse, have to wonder about the line used for the 4
7 won and paid $5.80


shoeless 7/20 r ??? tdn
didn't have winner in contenders


shoeless 6/22 r5 parx
7 = paragon a,b,energizer
2,3,6 contenders

have to wonder about line for 7 - seems suspicious when a horse is all 3 as above
3 won and paid $3.80
6 place for an exacta of $8.00


shoeless 6/8 r6 parx
2 = paragon a,b,energizer
5,7,3,1 contenders

7 won and paid $19.20
2 placed for an exacta paying $138.00
once again, when a single horse is all 3 seems sketchy

notice the muv on the 7 - it is the horse closest to the dream race max











ray - 10/11 r10 woodbine
1 was lone early speed and won, paid $13.60
nothing else matters in LES races at least imo


ray - 9/22 r4 TDN
didn't have winner in contenders


ray - 6/21 r6 CD
didn't have winner in contenders


ray - 6/13 r6 BAQ
6 City = paragon a,b
4,1,8,9 other contenders

4 won and paid $7.10
6 placed for exacta of 29.02

ray - 5/8 r1 LRL
2 Whats = paragon a
3 Sonic = paragon b
other contenders 1,7,8

3 Sonic won and paid $5.20
7 Endless placed and exacta paid $17.60


ray - 5/7 r6 TDN
3 Mr. Looch = paragon a
6 Midnight = paragon b
other contenders 8,2,7

6 won and paid 12.40
3 placed for a 48.60 exacta


ray - 4/21 r9 PRX
3 cocktail = paragon a
4 sheta = paragon b
other contenders 1,2,6

1 won and paid 4.60
2 placed for 21.20 exacta


ray - 4/1 r8 tampa
4 Dominant = paragon a
9 Top Pocket = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

4 won and paid 4.60
5 placed and paid 22.80 exacta


ray - 3/31 r7 parx
2 ahsad = paragon a, energizer
3 diamond = paragon b
other contenders 1,6,7

1 won and paid $17.60
6 placed for a 48.40 exacta
notice something is really wrong on ahsad's data, it is 58 / 30 / 14 for F1,2,3 error here !!!


ray - 3.24 r6 MVR
6 Lady = paragon a,b,energizer
other contenders 2,3,7,8

8 won and paid 29.80
7 placed and exacta paid 96.60
whenever a single horse has all the top, it is usually not the winner in energy it seems


ray - 11/1/25 r2 BAQ
4 Cathe = paragon a, energizer
7 Amund = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

5 won and paid 41.42
7 placed and exacta paid 125.86

I appreciate your discretion, but it isn't a big deal.

I had a bad fall a couple years ago and it messed up my lower abdomen.
In december, they are repairing a problem with my colon that has been giving me blood poisoning and removing a tumor that has been causing problems as well.

If all goes as planned, I should be back to healthy early in 2027.

so just looking at the races with different paragon a and b
the data is wrong on the 3/31 race - you can tell from the fractions something got typo'd
going to throw that out as well
races with the wrong contenders I did not put in either


this leaves us with 7 races
in 5 of the 7 one of the 2 paragon horses won

they paid
7.60
12.80
5.20
12.40
4.60

if you bet $10 on all 14 horses you were in $140
and the pay out would have been $213
that is a respectable ROI of +0.52 on the dollar


you would have hit 4 exactas if you bet the 2 paragon horses over each other and the 3 other contenders
7 * 16 would be a cost of $112
the 4 that hit paid - $283 --- caution here since one exacta paid $194, that might not be a typical haul





shoeless - 10/19 r8 parx
4 Hough = paragon a, b
1 Spike = energizer
left out the place horse

4 Hough paid $7.60 to win


shoeless - 11/10 r1 parx
1 crimson = paragon a, energizer
3 sushi = paragon b
4,5,7 other contenders

3 Crimson paid $13,80 to win
$2 exacta 3/7 paid $194.00



ray - 5/8 r1 LRL
2 Whats = paragon a
3 Sonic = paragon b
other contenders 1,7,8

3 Sonic won and paid $5.20
7 Endless placed and exacta paid $17.60


ray - 5/7 r6 TDN
3 Mr. Looch = paragon a
6 Midnight = paragon b
other contenders 8,2,7

6 won and paid 12.40
3 placed for a 48.60 exacta


ray - 4/21 r9 PRX
3 cocktail = paragon a
4 sheta = paragon b
other contenders 1,2,6

1 won and paid 4.60
2 placed for 21.20 exacta


ray - 4/1 r8 tampa
4 Dominant = paragon a
9 Top Pocket = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

4 won and paid 4.60
5 placed and paid 22.80 exacta


ray - 11/1/25 r2 BAQ
4 Cathe = paragon a, energizer
7 Amund = paragon b
other contenders 2,3,5

5 won and paid 41.42
7 placed and exacta paid 125.86

Jeff we all make mistakes. Do not beat yourself up over it. I would just suggest for future reference, if you are not sure how to build your wager, Box the top 3 in FX. Look who is ranked 1st and 2nd in FX. The 7 has the highest deficiency but (MUV) But ranks 1st in hidden and the variegate is sustained. The 3 and 7 are ranked 1-2 in sustained, late exertion (lx) as well. Lord knows I made more than my fair share of wagering mistakes or not trusting my handicapping. You know what to do and I have faith that you will correct your mistakes. All the best.

Thanks Dan for taking the time to do that,very interesting and
need to keep an eye on it


Thanks Bryan for the kind words, for some reason I took this loss
in stride and didn't let it bother me like I usually do.


Jeff