Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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tfm 01-05-2009 01:38 PM

Huge late runs --- Facts
 
2 Attachment(s)
Someone over at PA is comparing the late run of Eusebio (SUN-01-04-09_R11) to that of Donnaguska (HAW-10-23-08_R8).

No comparison.

Tim Y 01-05-2009 02:53 PM

look the same to me

clore1030 01-05-2009 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y (Post 45934)
look the same to me

From what I can see, one came from about 25 lengths back at first call and the other from about half that figure.

I have trouble reading the numerals on the left side of the screen, so I hope that the OP comes back to verify.

I suppose that I could always just confirm by looking up the DRF charts.

Tim Y 01-05-2009 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by clore1030 (Post 45980)
From what I can see, one came from about 25 lengths back at first call and the other from about half that figure.

I have trouble reading the numerals on the left side of the screen, so I hope that the OP comes back to verify.

I suppose that I could always just confirm by looking up the DRF charts.

Pace collapse makes these once or twice a month phenomena look far better than they really are.

Few of the great closers repeated often enough to make their odds worth a bet

clore1030 01-05-2009 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y (Post 45981)
Pace collapse makes these once or twice a month phenomena look far better than they really are.

Few of the great closers repeated often enough to make their odds worth a bet

I might consider such types when dealing with the cream of the crop, emphasis on might.

I tend to look most seriously at those who rank well on EP and TT. I prefer to not have my horse be sitting behind a wall of others in the stretch.

Generalizations of course, but my prime reason to look for deep closers is to bet against them.

The grass is another matter, but for dirt races I like the kind of horse that Lauren Bacall described in THE BIG SLEEP. :)

Charlie D 01-05-2009 05:23 PM

Top horse has made up 23.5 lengths in 2f

Looks to me like it's a no comparison, TOP beats bottom hands down

amazing run by Top horse tbh, but tough to repeat

Charlie D 01-05-2009 05:45 PM

Quote:

Top horse has made up 23.5 lengths in 2
Actaully that not quite correct as Top was in lead for a couple

Compare both horses to where they join leader of race and you'll see Top kicks butt


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