Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 11-25-2016, 10:10 AM

What I've found is that its true the percentage of wins do go down in turf races. However that's do to the make up of the horses within that race. In other words there are many more unknown factors in turf races in that they contain many FTS on turf and unproven to the conditions of the race.

My experience is that if they all are proven with 3 turf starts and 3 at the distance structure they are very playable races. Those that insist on playing dirt races that are MSW or young horses with fewer than 3 at the surface and distance will destroy their win percentage also by as much as 15%.

My point is that its not the surface or distance but the make up of the race and the unknown factors within that race makeup that destroys a bankroll. Like RichieP I find many turf races that are profitable.
Mitch44

11-25-2016, 10:10 AM	#5
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	What I've found is that its true the percentage of wins do go down in turf races. However that's do to the make up of the horses within that race. In other words there are many more unknown factors in turf races in that they contain many FTS on turf and unproven to the conditions of the race. My experience is that if they all are proven with 3 turf starts and 3 at the distance structure they are very playable races. Those that insist on playing dirt races that are MSW or young horses with fewer than 3 at the surface and distance will destroy their win percentage also by as much as 15%. My point is that its not the surface or distance but the make up of the race and the unknown factors within that race makeup that destroys a bankroll. Like RichieP I find many turf races that are profitable. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 11-25-2016 at 10:13 AM.