Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless
David,Are you just going with the TPR numbers alone or using something else with them?Also are you using the variants or Beyer numbers?If you are using the variants are you just using 0?Jeff
That's not a bad idea you had with Bill,I could meet him at the track just buy him lunch and relax and use his picks.
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TPR numbers alone. I was using the Syn printouts at one point to separate ties. I found that using the "pig factor" to make a final choice was more profitable. So, that's how I pick one horse over the other when, for example, they're both contenders and tied for the EPR if they're early.
I use Beyer numbers sometimes with the DRF. Sometimes I use DRF+VAR (but not on turf if I can help it). I'll also use other numbers from time to time. My research has not pointed to one specific application being statistically superior to another. I spent a lot of time researching all that and didn't come up with anything after a long time doing so. :::shrug::: I know you like to use the DRF variant at 50%. That's fine.
Here's a pretend example of how to use the TPR numbers.
BozScaggs 94 94 188 E
LouReed 94 92 186 E
If those were the only two early (remember, all contestants are either early or late) horses I'd bet the longer odds of the two. I wouldn't use TPR as a tiebreaker. Most of the bombs I get are the fourth or fifth listed TPR horses (but still within five of the top TPR horse).
Jeff, if you're going to use Bill's picks make sure you spoil him. Make all the bets for him, buy him coffee and deliver it, have a pretty girl give him a massage...you get the idea.
:>)