Old Style -- TPR

[admin]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Ah, you're right, Bill!

LOL. I posted the wrong price for that race. In any event I think people can get the idea I was conveying.

Glad you guys both cashed.

:>)

Maybe I can dig up a good PHA race for tomorrow and post it in the Selections folder.

of course David
I know that race I Bet the 4 and the 5
My readouts said the 3 had a chance
I made a 4 5 3 exbox but the 2 got second ahead of a late running 3 at 13/1

I passed race 8
just didn't get a good feel from it


thanks
Bill

[shoeless]

David,Thanks for posting that and it's very helpful,I see you enter all the horses which I wasnt doing.I had sent Dick Schmidt an e mail and he told me that he enters all the horses as well to get TPR numbers.I think they are a great tool to get down to your contenders.I usually will have the winner in my top 4 and then Im lost where to go from there.Jeff


By the way Bill was hitting them all over the place yesterday.

[alydar_ David]

Jeff,

Thanks for the kind words.

If I was at the track with Bill I'd be tempted to relax and let him do all the handicapping. Just take his picks to the window and bet.

As a matter of fact I used to do that, in reverse. Had someone take my bets for me and bring me all the late scratches and changes (in the old days you could only get mud caulk info from the chalkboard at the NYRA tracks). I could relax in a quiet part of the clubhouse and concentrate on handicapping while he ran around and did all the leg work. It worked well for both of us. You guys might want to try it.

I'll post a couple more races using the TPR technique in the selections area. The way I'm doing it is similar to what Dick did in the book. If anything, I've simplified the process. It's not hard to do. And I get bomb mutuels every single week without exception. I know you've got Syn4. That's the program I'm using almost exclusively. As a matter of fact I've used TPR for turf for years; works better than anything I've ever used. And that includes the programs I've paid a fortune for in the past.

[shoeless]

David,Are you just going with the TPR numbers alone or using something else with them?Also are you using the variants or Beyer numbers?If you are using the variants are you just using 0?Jeff


That's not a bad idea you had with Bill,I could meet him at the track just buy him lunch and relax and use his picks.

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by shoeless

David,Are you just going with the TPR numbers alone or using something else with them?Also are you using the variants or Beyer numbers?If you are using the variants are you just using 0?Jeff


That's not a bad idea you had with Bill,I could meet him at the track just buy him lunch and relax and use his picks.

TPR numbers alone. I was using the Syn printouts at one point to separate ties. I found that using the "pig factor" to make a final choice was more profitable. So, that's how I pick one horse over the other when, for example, they're both contenders and tied for the EPR if they're early.

I use Beyer numbers sometimes with the DRF. Sometimes I use DRF+VAR (but not on turf if I can help it). I'll also use other numbers from time to time. My research has not pointed to one specific application being statistically superior to another. I spent a lot of time researching all that and didn't come up with anything after a long time doing so. :::shrug::: I know you like to use the DRF variant at 50%. That's fine.

Here's a pretend example of how to use the TPR numbers.

BozScaggs 94 94 188 E
LouReed 94 92 186 E

If those were the only two early (remember, all contestants are either early or late) horses I'd bet the longer odds of the two. I wouldn't use TPR as a tiebreaker. Most of the bombs I get are the fourth or fifth listed TPR horses (but still within five of the top TPR horse).

Jeff, if you're going to use Bill's picks make sure you spoil him. Make all the bets for him, buy him coffee and deliver it, have a pretty girl give him a massage...you get the idea.

:>)

[shoeless]

David,Thanks again for sharing.It's always good to get other people's point of view you never know what you might learn.Jeff

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

In summary, going by the book:

1) Use L.A.S.T -- last paceline unless layoff, atypical distance, surface, trouble.

2) Look at contenders with 5 points of top TPR

3) Assign "early" or "late" designations to each horse

4) Bet the best early and the best late

Use the pig factor for ties.

Simple? Yes. But it works!

:>)

Could you explain a couple of things to me?

What does L.A.S.T. stand for?

What is the "pig" factor or "snort?"

What does SSR stand for? I think you explained why you use that number instead of TPR for your final selection, but I'm not sure what it is.

Thanks

[Turbulator]

Originally Posted by admin

I am using the EPR and LPR and TPR numbers
as a tool I find them very helpful

Thanks Bill

Bill, in RDSS on the TPR screen (which is below) there is an EPR, LPR and CPR, which I believe is "composite pace rating." I was using CPR to reduce to my final five, but I kind of switched over to Total Energy.

Is CPR the same thing as TPR? If yes, is it arrived at the same way in RDSS that it is in Synergism? I've always been confused about CPR.

Is this how you're using TPR in RDSS?

If CPR is NOT TPR (or close to it) then where do you locate it in RDSS?

By the way, Dick Schmidt has said that TPR ratings are working as well today as they were back when they first came up with them. It's something I'd kind of like to test out.

Thanks

[admin]

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Bill, in RDSS on the TPR screen (which is below) there is an EPR, LPR and CPR, which I believe is "composite pace rating." I was using CPR to reduce to my final five, but I kind of switched over to Total Energy.

Is CPR the same thing as TPR? If yes, is it arrived at the same way in RDSS that it is in Synergism? I've always been confused about CPR.

Is this how you're using TPR in RDSS?

If CPR is NOT TPR (or close to it) then where do you locate it in RDSS?

By the way, Dick Schmidt has said that TPR ratings are working as well today as they were back when they first came up with them. It's something I'd kind of like to test out.

Thanks

Hi Steve

I will try to answer you I hope Ted can save me

Ted is using CPR just like it was in the Sartin programs

Doc said Total Pace Ratings or TPR was wrong
"how can something that just measures two factors be called Total"

He called it composite or combination of the EPR + LPR = CPR

I just started calling it TPR because that's what the screen tab says

BY the way I feel these ratings are very easy to use and I have been doing well with them

I'm still getting down to 5 contenders with total energy and Primary line score but the TPR/CPR numbers are interesting

GS
Bill

[Ted Craven]

Steve,

Yep, TPR = CPR. The formula is straight out of Validator/Speculator, which is straight out of Synthesis, which is straight out of PaceLauncher, which is straight out of Pace Makes the Race.

EPR + LPR = CPR (TPR) is 3/7ths of the components of the Primary Line Score. It works if it works, but it works as well now as back in the day. I also use Total Energy as my main method of identifying the top 5 contenders.

EPT - LPR (or E/L Difference) is an additionally powerful way to really use these ratings. Where does a horse disburse its energy, relative to the rst of the field? What energy disbursement demands does a track have, either typically, or on a short-term basis? Who is counter to the Win energy disbursement pattern?

Ted