Ok, so now I have removed the #’s 1, 2, 5 and 9 because their last lines were much longer than today’s distance of 5 furlongs and the remainder of the horses whose last line WERE from 5 furlong races. So what I did, was go back to these 4 horses and re-evaluate them.
Here’s how I looked at them.
#1 – throwing out the last line for the reason already mentioned, I looked at line 2 which is from a 5 furlong race. The horse did not display the standards for a paceline and therefore removed from further consideration
#2 – here is a horse that runs every time out. In the last ten races it has been on 5 different tracks and still runs its’ race every time. The question is, which race will it run today? I used this horse in another thread as an example of how to determine how a horse will run today based on the distance of today’s race. Here is the link.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8051. We already know that using the last line on this horse gets it eliminated. As we look at this horses’ record, we can see that distance matters to this horse. And the only race it shows at 5 furlongs is its' 4th line back. Now I hate to go back 4 lines, but in this case, in this race, I feel compelled to do so. So the 4th line back will be the line I choose.
#5 – NO LINE for this horse. The closest it has run to today’s distance is 6.5 furlongs and we know we are not going to get that horse off of any of those lines
#9 – The only other line available for this horse in the last 90 days is line 2 at 5 furlongs. However, it just doesn’t meet the standards of line selection, so it is eliminated.
The final screen shots are below.
As you will see, ENERGY did not correctly pick the winner as it suggested a “sustained” horse would win the race and the #10, who ENERGY correctly had as the best early horse as seen on the EXDC MATCH UP (screen 5), went on to wire the field.
Also, the inclusion of #2 off the 4th line back seems to have been correct. The horse did not show early speed and did, in fact, close down the stretch.