Early vs. Late - Pace and Cap

mrhug · 12-28-2011, 11:09 AM

I am having trouble deciding if a race will run early or late in certain races. What is the best way to decide if a lot of the horses have the same running style and a lot of their pace lines are similar?

Bill V. · 12-28-2011, 11:15 AM

Hi Melvin
Can you gives us a example from a race

that would be a good way for use to work it out

Bill

For The Lead · 12-30-2011, 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrhug

I am having trouble deciding if a race will run early or late in certain races. What is the best way to decide if a lot of the horses have the same running style and a lot of their pace lines are similar?

If you're only having that problem in "certain" races, then you're doing pretty good! (just kidding with you)

I see there has been no "takers" on your question and the thread was moved and the race you posted lost, which is just as well, it was a bad race from a bad track.

Anyway, there is no short and sweet answer to your question. If there was, we would all be rich.

I have attached a screen shot of a horse.
What is this horses "style"
How will this horse run today?

I have circled 3 races, one at 5.0 furlongs and two at 5.5 furlongs. Look at them. Now look at the rest of the races. So the answer to the two questions I asked is, 'what is today's distance", isn't it?

Trust me, I just put the smallest of scratches in the surface of your question.

mrhug · 12-30-2011, 08:27 AM

Thanks for the lead. Yes Ted deleted the other race for me and then informed me it was in the wrong place and moved it. It must have been one of my senior moments. Anyway, I want to really thank you for your help in my last post about pace lines (which is also in the wrong area). I have been reading a lot of the posts in the matchers forum area and they have helped a lot. The race I was going to post was a mess and I am not sure anyone could have figured it out and it would have probably been a pass race anyway.
I see your point about the horse you posted, it runs late on 5-5.5 and early most other distances. The main reason I started this post was another race (I cannot remember the race) where I could not decide before elimination if the race was going to run early or late and after elimination the 4 horses I had left had 2 early horses with similar lines and 2 late horses with similar lines. I did not bet the race, but remember thinking after the race the only decision to winning the race was to decide if it would run early or late. I guess just passing the race was the correct thing to do. I guess that is the real thing I am having a problem with.
Thanks again for taking the time to help a beginner (1 year and still learning).

shoeless · 12-30-2011, 08:45 AM

FTL,

You do a really good job of noticing how the horse will run at different distances.

partsnut · 12-30-2011, 12:27 PM

In my opinion, PaceAppraiser give one the most accurate assessment on how a specific race should run and has the most accurate assessment of running style and speed points. PaceAppraiser also offers a Pace Projection Guide (PPG) which is a very strong tool.
Randy Giles, the author of this software and service has also written "Extreme Pace Handicapping" which I feel is a must read for all pace enthusiasts.
There is also lot's of free information on his web site.
www.paceappraiser.com

partsnut · 12-30-2011, 01:10 PM

I will use today's 2nd race At TUP as an example.
Most likely there would be no value for me to bet this race.
The chances are I will be wrong but this is the way I interpret this race.
Both these horses indicate to me that they exhibit enough "early" characteristics to be contentious in this contest.
The pace Projection Guide (Top Right) seems to favor this type of horse.
The pace lines that I used are highlighted.The pace comfort zone and
form numbers (To the right of the running style on the left side) are a positive for me.
PF = Pace Figure
PVR = Pace Velocity Rating
SF =Speed Figures (actual /adjusted )

partsnut · 12-30-2011, 04:09 PM

Results - R2

MIKE · 12-30-2011, 04:33 PM

--and your check from Randy Giles IS in the mail !!!

:
--nice hit Doc !!

For The Lead · 12-30-2011, 05:07 PM

Good selection, even though the horse didn't run as you expected.
Of course, in its' two races across this track it didn't show early speed in either one of them either.
The #1 horse, who did show early speed across this track in its' last two races, showed early speed again today.

12-30-2011, 01:10 PM	#7
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	I will use today's 2nd race At TUP as an example. Most likely there would be no value for me to bet this race. The chances are I will be wrong but this is the way I interpret this race. Both these horses indicate to me that they exhibit enough "early" characteristics to be contentious in this contest. The pace Projection Guide (Top Right) seems to favor this type of horse. The pace lines that I used are highlighted.The pace comfort zone and form numbers (To the right of the running style on the left side) are a positive for me. PF = Pace Figure PVR = Pace Velocity Rating SF =Speed Figures (actual /adjusted ) Attached Images Last edited by partsnut; 12-30-2011 at 01:15 PM.

12-30-2011, 04:09 PM	#8
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Results - R2 Results - R2 Attached Images

12-30-2011, 04:33 PM	#9
MIKE Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Rochester NY Posts: 196	--and your check from Randy Giles IS in the mail !!!: --nice hit Doc !!

12-30-2011, 05:07 PM	#10
For The Lead Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,292	The Chart Good selection, even though the horse didn't run as you expected. Of course, in its' two races across this track it didn't show early speed in either one of them either. The #1 horse, who did show early speed across this track in its' last two races, showed early speed again today. Attached Images __________________ "It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own

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12-28-2011, 11:09 AM	#1
mrhug Grade 3 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Maryville, Tennessee Posts: 52	Early vs. Late I am having trouble deciding if a race will run early or late in certain races. What is the best way to decide if a lot of the horses have the same running style and a lot of their pace lines are similar?

12-28-2011, 11:15 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Hi Melvin Can you gives us a example from a race that would be a good way for use to work it out Bill

12-30-2011, 08:27 AM	#4
mrhug Grade 3 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Maryville, Tennessee Posts: 52	Thanks for the lead. Yes Ted deleted the other race for me and then informed me it was in the wrong place and moved it. It must have been one of my senior moments. Anyway, I want to really thank you for your help in my last post about pace lines (which is also in the wrong area). I have been reading a lot of the posts in the matchers forum area and they have helped a lot. The race I was going to post was a mess and I am not sure anyone could have figured it out and it would have probably been a pass race anyway. I see your point about the horse you posted, it runs late on 5-5.5 and early most other distances. The main reason I started this post was another race (I cannot remember the race) where I could not decide before elimination if the race was going to run early or late and after elimination the 4 horses I had left had 2 early horses with similar lines and 2 late horses with similar lines. I did not bet the race, but remember thinking after the race the only decision to winning the race was to decide if it would run early or late. I guess just passing the race was the correct thing to do. I guess that is the real thing I am having a problem with. Thanks again for taking the time to help a beginner (1 year and still learning).

12-30-2011, 08:45 AM	#5
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,651	FTL, You do a really good job of noticing how the horse will run at different distances.

12-30-2011, 12:27 PM	#6
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	In my opinion, PaceAppraiser give one the most accurate assessment on how a specific race should run and has the most accurate assessment of running style and speed points. PaceAppraiser also offers a Pace Projection Guide (PPG) which is a very strong tool. Randy Giles, the author of this software and service has also written "Extreme Pace Handicapping" which I feel is a must read for all pace enthusiasts. There is also lot's of free information on his web site. www.paceappraiser.com