Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveEdwards
FLT,
I've gone over it again & what I was thinking about were the definitions from the Red Manual (p16 on the pdf) and Follow Up 56 (p30 on the pdf).
There's no issue to clear up really. There is a little more latitude in what can be accepted as a + line in FU 56 included 3rd & 4th position finishes, depending on the pace of the race the horse was racing in.
As I alluded to in my post above, as with most things relating to the Methodology there are no rules. Each individual situation ought to be judged on it's merits. The issue I was questioning about definitions on the overlap between + & (+) races probably doesn't really need exploring further as both are acceptable as line selections.
This does raise a couple of further questions however:
1) At what point is a horse considered to have gone out of form & not expected to return in the next race?
My own thoughts are through form cycle analysis and also how it is performing against the POR it has faced recently. Clearly the POR can show an excusable 0 line due to the horse just not being able to compete.
2) In latter issues of the FU when talking about the best of last 3 (which I acknowledge may not be to everyone's taste) The Doc suggests not using a line where the BL was 7.5 or over. This in itself raises further questions:
a) Was the 7.5L a top end of the (+) which would be qualified by the fact the POR was too hot?
b) The formula that were a part of the latter programs were better able to handle such races?
3) Is it too late to claim a both ways exacta on yesterday's post?
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I'll start with your last question first.
OF COURSE NOT! Your post was quite clear on which two horses you thought would be at the wire! Chalk up an exacta for you!!
On your second question, I am one of those who do not care for "the best of last three distance surface" method, so I will bow to Bill V to answer that question.
Your first question is a good one, but not an easy one to answer.
The class of today's race and the class of its' recent races give an indication, i.e.-if today's race is at the same class/condition and the same distance/surface as its' last couple of races and the horse has shown nothing in those recent races, I would think it is safe to say the horse will not be a contender in today's race.
There are instances where a horse shows it was clearly facing a pace that was just to fast for it. It happens. But more often, a poor effort will be due to an increase in class level and/or condition level and, of course, a change in distance or surface.
Keep in mind that the higher you go in class level, the more consistent horses are, so you don't incur this problem that often. However, in the cheaper races, you can find a horse that wins a NW2L race and the very next race vs NW3L it throws in a real clunker. This is common. But be aware, this does not mean the horse went out of form "just that quick". Many times that horse will come back off that clunker race and come right back to win that same NW3L condition. Naturally, the class level (claiming price) of these races are a factor. There are many possible scenarios and you just have to be aware of them. There is no teacher like experience, so be on your toes and pay attention. Take notes.