Picking Contenders & Pacelines

[DaveEdwards]

FLT,

I've gone over it again & what I was thinking about were the definitions from the Red Manual (p16 on the pdf) and Follow Up 56 (p30 on the pdf).

There's no issue to clear up really. There is a little more latitude in what can be accepted as a + line in FU 56 included 3rd & 4th position finishes, depending on the pace of the race the horse was racing in.

As I alluded to in my post above, as with most things relating to the Methodology there are no rules. Each individual situation ought to be judged on it's merits. The issue I was questioning about definitions on the overlap between + & (+) races probably doesn't really need exploring further as both are acceptable as line selections.

This does raise a couple of further questions however:

1) At what point is a horse considered to have gone out of form & not expected to return in the next race?
My own thoughts are through form cycle analysis and also how it is performing against the POR it has faced recently. Clearly the POR can show an excusable 0 line due to the horse just not being able to compete.

2) In latter issues of the FU when talking about the best of last 3 (which I acknowledge may not be to everyone's taste) The Doc suggests not using a line where the BL was 7.5 or over. This in itself raises further questions:
a) Was the 7.5L a top end of the (+) which would be qualified by the fact the POR was too hot?
b) The formula that were a part of the latter programs were better able to handle such races?

3) Is it too late to claim a both ways exacta on yesterday's post?