|
9th race, 6fd for 10k claimers.
The scratch of the 6 doesn't change much, as its form was off and it was a slow horse, so never one to consider to begin with. It doesn't change the pace picture because the 6 is a presser, if anything, it gives the 4, 10 and the 1 more room to breathe.
The 9 horse, and morning line favourite, is the best early horse. Another factor in its favour is that the combination of Angel Cruz and Gary Gullo is firing at 44% the last 60, a pretty impressive percentage. But, there are a lot of early horses and early pressers that won't give the 9 a lot of room to breathe, so I think it is vulnerable.
For the OTE horses, the 10 and the 1 look interesting. Both are dropping in class, though the 10 horse has the bigger drop. The 1 would be a more speculative play, as its form is questionable and neither the jockey Worrie and trainer Friedman are particularly deft in their field. The last time the horse won was in May at a 32k n3l race, but, the horse was under Karl Grusmark's care at the time. Since Freidman has taken over from the claim he's got bupkus out of the horse.
The 10 horse is 3rd off the claim, is dropping from 16k, is trained by Charlton Baker, a trainer with a 26% proficiency at the claiming game, and has a nice workout on the 6th of March. So, it has many good things to recommend it as a potential wager.
So, to sum up, I think the 9 is vulnerable (it managed to get slower race) and in its stead, I like the 10.
|