Aqueduct, Friday the 13th.

[Seven Furlongs]

Lucky day or unlucky day? You decide, or rather, you and the horses decide.

I don't know if I'll do this a lot, but this, that is this cap a day thread, is a way for getting some thoughts across and thinking out loud.

Today's card looks better than yesterday's as the fields look a bit bigger and there are more route races. Scratches so far are the 1a in the 1st race, the 1a in the 2nd race, and the 6 in the 9th race.

On to the races!

2nd race, 1 mile, 20 k claim.

The scratch on the 1a doesn't change much of the dynamics as the 1 horse was much the better part of the entry.

Of the early horses, the 9 looks much the best, but, it does have a few red flags, in that it is starting from the 9 post and will have to run fast so as to cut in to make the 1st turn without going wide and it is going up 2 class levels after winning at the 10k level. The jockey switch to Taylor Rice is a positive, but I'm a bit sceptical. For me, there are 6 horses in this race who run their best as Early or Early Pressers, so the fact that the best of them all, the 9, has a few things going against it makes me think this may go OTE.

Of the OTE horses the 6 and the 10 are the most interesting. The interesting thing about the 6 is that the jockey, Angel Cruz, decided to take this mount instead of the 9, so even he or his agent might be skeptical of the 9's ability to repeat. The 6 is dropping in class, though I can't get a sense of what its form is like as its last race off of a long layoff was mediocre, but, it was run in the slop.

As for the 10, it is dropping in class and has 21 furlongs under its belt the last 30 days, which at least demonstrates fitness, which can't be said for many at the lower level claiming game. The horse gets Jose Ortiz, which is mildly significant in that the Gustavo/Jose Ortiz combo is firing at 66%, granted that is only 2/3.

I think the 6 or the 10 are the most logical, with perhaps the 10 getting the edge due to better form/condition.

[Seven Furlongs]

3rd race, 1 mile 70 optional claimer.

Not a lot of horses, but a lot of intrigue. There are not a lot of early horses as I have the 3 and 5 as early horses and the 4 as an early presser.

Of the 3, I think the 3 horse is much the best horse, with the huge caveat or caveats that: a., it is moving up in class, and b., that nice race it won last out was run in the slop, so you don't exactly know if this a horse that is good just in the slop or good in general.

This may be a good race to get interested in as match up wise the lower odds horses are compromised.

-The 2 at 5/2 is a presser and may not have the fast pace to wear down the early horses.

-The 4 at 2/1 is an EP and appears to be much slower than the 3. Granted of the remaining early/early presser horses, this is the second best horse.

-The 5 at 3/1 is an early horse that is slower than the 3, so not in the best of spots.

I like the 3 because its last race was an easy win, Alvarado stays aboard, and it is the best of the early horses.

[Seven Furlongs]

5th race, 5.5f allowance.

Not many 5.5 furlong races run on the inner track, so this is a bit of a novelty. The nice thing about this race is due to the length it really favours the early horses, of which there appear to be 2 in this race, the 3 and the 7. Brisnet's past performances have this race as containing 3 early pressers and an early, but I downgraded the 8 and the 5 to presser status as they don't look like the type of horse that wants the lead at the 1st call.

The 3 horse is coming off of a long vacation, is moving up in class, and is a 4 year old cold among some older horses. On the plus side it does have a nice workout, but, it has only run 7 furlongs in the last 30 days.

The 7 horse is a lone early, so there won't be any fighting for position with other early horses. The nice thing about the shortened distance is that the 7 doesn't have to gun it into the turn, as the shorter distance to the turn helps preserve some of its energy.

For an OTE component, the 5 looks like a decent horse, but, it looks like it prefers the grass to dirt.

I think it will go to the 7, though the 3 could surprise.

[Seven Furlongs]

7th race, 1 mile 32kclm

I'm not a fan of this race, largely because these horses are a sad collection of non 32k claiming stock. Granted because of this the public might mis-read the race and there may be value to be found, but still, these are not the second coming of Seattle Slew by any stretch of the imagination.

The good news about the race: There are just a few horses that like to run as early or early pressers.

Of the 2 early presser horses, the 5 and the 6, the 5 looks like the better horses. But, with this group 4 legged plodders, regrettably it has a few question marks. The first problem is that it is going up from a 25k maiden claimer to the 32k claiming ranks. If you use the general rule of thumb that a horse should only go up half the value of its maiden claiming level win into the claiming ranks, than this horse is up 20k in value to where it should be more sensibly placed at about 12.5k.

The second issue with this horse is that it has run two competitive races, which for what appears to be a horse that is more like a 10k claimer means that it may be going out of form as we speak.

Since this should run early because of composition, I think it may not due to, at least to me, the red flags surrounding the 5. So, for OTE candidates, I like the 8. The horse is going up in class as well, but, I think it is a better overall horse than the 5. Also, this may be Gustavo Rodriguez day, as again, Mr. Rodriguez has Irad Ortiz on this horse, the Ortiz/Rodriguez combo firing at 66% or 2/3.

If there was more early pace in this race than the 4 would become interesting as it has a nice final fraction from its last race, but I think with the 8 running closer to the pace it has a better chance to win.

So, in sum, I like the 8.

[Seven Furlongs]

8th race, 6f optional claimer n2x.

A lot early speed in this race, or rather, a lot of early horses and early pressers.

I have the composition of the race as follows:

1 ep
1a e
2 ep
3 ep
4 e
5 p
6 ep
7 p
8 ep

I think at face value, it looks like it will go either of the pressers, the 7 or 5, but, both have issues. For the 7, it is running 1st off the claim, in which Gary Contessa is a whopping 7% of 169 claims. In Contessa's defence this is the third time in the last 10 races the horse has been claimed, so other people like Joe Mooch too, but, off of Joe Mooch's last sprint race its form isn't so great.

As for the 5, it might just be too slow for this race. It has only won or come close to winning when the 1st fraction is 23 and change. I projected the 1st call to be a touch quicker, so I ruled the 5 out.

As for the early pressers, the 1 and the 6 look good. I think an encouraging sign for the 1 is that the 1a remains, who I think his only purpose is to make the 4 horse uncomfortable. The 4 is a good horse and it is dropping in class and might win, it is just that this race is too chaotic for me to make clear sense out of as it can go either early to the 4 or to an early presser. I just don't know.

[Seven Furlongs]

9th race, 6fd for 10k claimers.

The scratch of the 6 doesn't change much, as its form was off and it was a slow horse, so never one to consider to begin with. It doesn't change the pace picture because the 6 is a presser, if anything, it gives the 4, 10 and the 1 more room to breathe.

The 9 horse, and morning line favourite, is the best early horse. Another factor in its favour is that the combination of Angel Cruz and Gary Gullo is firing at 44% the last 60, a pretty impressive percentage. But, there are a lot of early horses and early pressers that won't give the 9 a lot of room to breathe, so I think it is vulnerable.

For the OTE horses, the 10 and the 1 look interesting. Both are dropping in class, though the 10 horse has the bigger drop. The 1 would be a more speculative play, as its form is questionable and neither the jockey Worrie and trainer Friedman are particularly deft in their field. The last time the horse won was in May at a 32k n3l race, but, the horse was under Karl Grusmark's care at the time. Since Freidman has taken over from the claim he's got bupkus out of the horse.

The 10 horse is 3rd off the claim, is dropping from 16k, is trained by Charlton Baker, a trainer with a 26% proficiency at the claiming game, and has a nice workout on the 6th of March. So, it has many good things to recommend it as a potential wager.

So, to sum up, I think the 9 is vulnerable (it managed to get slower race) and in its stead, I like the 10.

[Seven Furlongs]

Granted the 2nd and 3rd races didn't pan out, but I was right about the 5th.

The thing I sometimes forget is that for route races and and grass races, classier horses usually have the upper edge. I don't think I factored that in to my handicapping on the 2nd and 3rd races, hence the misses. Or it may be I'm just trying to make excuses for myself, who knows.

Still, I do think that the match-up on a fraction by fraction comparison basis is easier to do with sprints than routes, mainly on the dirt. There is more variance with route times, so it is a bit harder to do it on a fraction by fraction basis and still feel that sense of precision you can feel when you are evaluating a 6 furlong race for non winners of 2 in three reincarnated lifetimes. I think the match-up concept still applies in terms of compositional make up regardless of sprint or route, it is just that I feel that routes require a slightly different approach. Or again, it may be that I'm just trying to make excuses.

Just spit ballin I guess.

[Seven Furlongs]