Interesting Race about Number Blindness Sar 5, June 7

[kahunab]

I don't know about you but I can get caught up in the numbers and not see the forest for the trees.
Here is an interesting race Sar 5 on June the 7th. When we first open it up on the entries screen we can't help but note the advantage the 2 horse has in multiple catagories.

We move to the Leverage Pace screen and see strong scores all the way across for the 2. He is the fastest SR in the field with the most total energy. The morning line favorite. Will he just run away with it?
Here is where I have to stop myself and just slow down. We have 18 Early Speed Points which is enough to make this a late race. I see 3 Early horses and two Early Pressers. Behavioral Early Pressure

We cut the contenders down to the top 5 RX3 horses. Horses with nothing to offer we make non contenders. Two horses do show something so we make them secondary contenders. The 7 (#1 EPR) and the 10 (#5 PL and BPP, #1CR+, #3 EPR). Note also the indicator that says the 2 can get the lead. But can he?

We move to the New Pace screen and we take notice of is if this race runs late (pressured), our 3 contenders for the Key horse designation are all at the top. The question is can the 2 break free or is there evidence that he will be pressured? The arrow pointing to the little 61 means that the 10 horse is the #1 Early horse when you take into account his entire background. 62% means he can get the lead. He will fight for the lead. More evidence that the Early will be pressured and blow up. Pressers should win.

I felt the race would run late. So now the question is which contender for Key looks best to W, P, S? Who fits the late scenario the best?
Indicator 1. The 11 show up best in the TS+F3 screen, he gains throughout the race. And he is a Presser. Note also the 7 horse is a Presser with the double zeros in the first two fractions. He is the contra energy horse longshot horse in a late race. That is probably enough evidence. Make the 11 our Key and the 1 and 2 companion horse (other candidates for Key designation) along with the 9 (Presser in our top 5 contenders) and the 7 our contra energy longshot. So our key bet is 11/1,2,7,9 for both the exacta and the tri.

[kahunab]

I wanted to add some further information on the race. I had decided the race would indeed run late so I played it that way. The other screen I used for the decision to play the 11 as the key was the primary screen where I compared the 3 candidates for key under LPR, HID, and VDC. As you can see I could have also chosen the 1 which would have cost us the exacta but a Tri key box would have still won.

So how did the race run?
We can see the 10 got out with the 2 and battled to the 2nd call and the 10 fell apart. The 2 faltered and gave up the lead to the 7 who was midpack and had tons of energy and the 11 came flying down the lane to get up for 2nd. Just as we thought without getting "too" caught up in the numbers.

[Lt1]

Well done Dick. I would never have had the #7 in the mix but the 11 qualified as a RMATH LSP. Once again great work on this race and very nice payoffs.
Tim

[dadams6357]

Dick
Very informative explanation.
Appreciate it.
I have always been looking for the Holy Grail
of black boxes. Punch in the numbers and watch
the money flow. Ah never worked.
Thanks for sharing your years of handicapping analysis.
Don

[dadams6357]

Dick
I do not have that race on file.
I was wondering on the POH SCREEN
how the E EP types velocity was
from F1 TO F2?
Don

[ignacio todoberto bernal]

Exelent analysis super!thank you for sharing...........WHAOH!

NASH