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10-05-2016, 03:50 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Maiden workout information from Delmar
I got interested in the workout designations that appear on the Entries page of RDSS and also shown in the workout tab..
I summarized all of the maiden races, separating races that were won by first time starters (FTS), races that were won by horses with at least a race, but which had FTS in them (the FTS did not win in these races) and then all the maiden races that did not have FTS in the field. Here are the results: There were 34 FTS winners in the races I looked at. I think I missed the PPs for 7.23 so there might be a race or two left out of this summary. The column headings are pretty self explanatory. The field col = the number of runners, FTS = # of FTS in the race; the yellow column (%FT) is the percentage of the field represented by FTS; PL=profit line from twinspires; Odds are final odds, then the morning line odds and rank; WR and Wkout info and rank and then any workout abbreviation shown (more on that later) There were 93 maiden races with FTS and FTS won 34 of them, but FTS only won when running 5.0/5.5/6.0/6.5 on the dirt and 8.0 on the turf. 2YO MCl - 2YO MSW - 3YO MCl - 3YO MSW 5.0 - 2/7 1/3 1/2 0/1 0/1 5.5 - 18/33 6/14 10/12 1/5 1/2 6.0 - 8/23 1/4 5/8 1/6 1/5 6.5 - 2/4 0/0 1/3 0/0 1/4 7.0 - 0/3 0/0 0/0 0/3 0/0 8.0 - 0/2 0/0 0/2 0/0 0/0 5.0T – 0/1 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/1 8.0T – 4/15 0/0 4/8 0/0 0/7 8.5T – 0/2 0/0 0/0 0/0 0/2 In my opiinion based on this data, the two best workout designations for maidens are any form of SRW (short recent work)and any form of GW (gate workout). there were six winning FTS with SRW works, only one paid less than 3:1. A total of 49 horses in all races won by a FTS also had SRW works. If you combine SRW with HWL and SWG workouts there were only 32 such horses and the same six won (18.9%) 12 of the FTS horses won with GW workouts. But look at the races that had FTS horses that did not win. None of the winning horses in those 60 races had a GW workout. 34 races won by FTS 60 races with FTS that did not win 30 maiden races with no FTS. Look at how many won that were top 3 morning line. Good luck, |
10-06-2016, 04:14 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Maybe its the time of year, but the DMR info shows that most often 2YO FTS winners are run in 5.5 furlong races, some at six and very few beyond that distance. This year no dirt route FTS winners. However there were 4 FTS winners in one mile turf races. The pattern of FTS winners at 5.5 and 6 F continued at Los Alamitos as well.
I mentioned the GW (gate work) in the last post. Of the 34 fTS winners, 13 had a GW work out; of the 60 other races that included FTS that did not win, there were NO GW works for the winners; and in the 30 maiden races that had no FTS there were 2 winners with GW works. This should emphasize the importance of GW works when considering a FTS. One other workout designation that should be noted is the "SCW" or Special Condition Workout. This workout designation only applies to horses that have raced since it compares workouts before and after the last race and whether they are improving or not. So you will find no FTS with an "SCW" workout. In general horses with "SCW" workouts usually go off at lower odds. You can see this in the bottom two panels of the results posted by reviewing the final odds of the winners. In the 60 races that had FTS horses that did not win, there were 24 races where no horse had a "SCW" workout, so that leaves 36 races and in those races there were 51 horses with SCW works. For some reason when a race has multiple SCW horses, at least in this sample, no of those horses won the race. There were 4 races with three or more horses with SCW and none won (total 13 SCW's). So in 36-4=32 races with 1 or 2 horses with SCW ratings 9 horses won - 28%. In the 30 races with no FTS, 43 horses had SCW works, but they occurred in only 23 races. In five races multiple SCW horses were entered (16 SRW's) and in one race did one of the multiple SCW horses win. In the end there were 18 races with one or two SCW horses. An SCW horse won 8/18 of these races or 44%. If you are playing horizontal bets this info might help. |
10-06-2016, 07:22 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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Not nice work Bill but great work. Record keeping does reveal many things.
Mitch44 |
10-06-2016, 07:45 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
FTS with GW drill last Saturday
Here is a FTS at a mile on turf. Look at the workout info, the +GW work is pretty meaningful for FTS. This one paid 9.10/1. Since DMR there have been no FTS in SoCal that won beyond 6.5 furlongs, except at a mile on turf.
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10-07-2016, 12:41 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: central islip ny
Posts: 1,126
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I have a question about this. I notice you don't pay attention to trainers. wouldm't certain trainers have certain pet ways to prepare winning FTS?
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10-07-2016, 05:54 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
Yes, Charlie it might. I looked up the SRW/Hwl/SWG winners and found that Peter Miller did it 4times and Bob Hess twice. All others were one timers. If you want I can send you the spreadsheet and u cud fill it in or may be ask. Bill V I think be may have recorded that info for dmr
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10-07-2016, 06:34 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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The trainer is a corollary factor especially with FTS. Knowing their workout pattern can pay big dividends and enhance profits. Some are notorious for fast works while many fly under the radar with slow works that get big payoffs. Additionally their trainer stats with young horses, todays conditions i.e. routes vs sprints or turf etc. can help solve the puzzle. Always remember to assess the odds to the risk, or payoff vs the risk . Again Bill a terrific job.
Mitch44 |
10-07-2016, 10:13 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Trainer
Hi Charlie Bill and Mitch
First I want to thank Bill L for his work, I have every race from DMR summer meet recorded. In all races these trainers won with a GW notation |
10-07-2016, 10:23 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Scw1 scw2
These trainers won with the SCW1 or better notation
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10-08-2016, 08:17 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,706
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WOW!!!! Ah ,record keeping. The ESP is also interesting as I see lots of S types & P. So much for the early argument and justification for the match up is well rewarded here. One would just assume Cailf. & early speed all the time. Bill was this the visual ESP or % Med.? Many nugget's and great examples of record keeping to mine nugget's that escapes the average player.
Odds by ESP may be interesting as the "Doc" always said that sustained horses pay better prices. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 10-08-2016 at 08:33 AM. |
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