Re-Work CD 5/3/16

[Latekick]

I wanted to get some feedback on two races from Churchill today. Users of the match-up feel free to post and let me know how you saw it, but i am more interested in the users of RDSS who use the software based off of rankings/VDC/ and readouts. Not saying those who match don't use these, I'm just more of a readouts user and although i understand the matchup, i tend to stick to using the program in a way that works for me.

Id like too see your opinions on Race 5 and also Race 7 from today at Churchill.

[DanBoals]

CD - May 3rd

5th Race : I have 5 contenders based on speed. The 5, coming off the layoff is the horse I threw out immediately. There are 2 horses that are E8, and one I have as an EP6, which means the early lead will be contested. Of those, the 7 runs a 22:2, the 3 runs a 22:5 and the 8 runs a 22:9. This means the 7 can run at or close to his pace, I used his 3rd line back from Del, and the 3 and 8 will have to run earlier than they normally would. The 6 shows number 1 on LPR, but looking at his E/L, and the fact that he is last in EPR, I had to throw him out too. This left me with the 7 and 4 and 1 as my contenders, in that order. I boxed these three for the exacta. I actually thought it would be the 4 and the 1 coming off a pace melt down for the exacta, but 7 ran a smart race and won.

7th race : The 4 was my favorite, he had the best speed IMO coming out of the GP race, but GP can be inflated some times, so can't get too excited. My other contenders were the 2, 6, 9 and 8 in that order based on BL/BL. The 6 shows as my lone early speed, so he can wire to wire if no one challenges. The 2 ran close to a 108:4 at keeneland 24 days ago, so he is nothing to sneeze at. I like the 8 and 9, but not they just don't come up as high as the 2, 4, and 6. So I box the 2, 4, and 6 for the exacta. The 6 goes wire to wire, and the 2 barely gets up for 2nd.

I box 3 horses for my exactas... I haven't figured out win betting yet so I am not sure if I am misusing RDSS2 or if it is just better at exactas the way I handicap. I use a combination of visual matchup and the BL/BL and I make some money, not a lot, but some. Hope this helps,

Dan

[Mark]

Yes, I match horses! But I also think that as part of general handicapping you must look at the horses in the field and determine to your satisfaction who wants the lead. What do their past performances tell you.
When they win how do they run and where are they at the 1st Call position-wise. Do they fight for the lead, 1st-hd, 2nd-hd or do they need open lengths to win?
There were 3 or 4 horses in this race that did their best running on or very close to the lead. These are pretty fast horses, nice claiming fillies and when they hook up they will just run too fast early. So you can immediately toss the #2, #3, #8. My opinion is that the #1 will either get sucked along or have to drop back and then she is out of position. The #5 has been off for 374 days and although she has nice works and won once laying second 1 1/2 off the lead in second, but mostly she is right up on the pace in her better races. So who is left? Who has shown she can run from a position of 4th or 5th at the 1st Call? You have the #6 with her Turf wins in her last 10 races and the #4 whose only win came at MNR in the last 10.
And you have the #7! Fresh off a Turf win off a 200 day layoff. Given plenty of time so she won't bounce(Read Ragozin's, "The Odds must be Crazy") with 3 works in the last 28, one a zippy 5f in 1:01 and change. Now can you find a line where she won or ran very close from the 4th or 5th position at the 1st Call? Bingo the 9th line against a pistol hot pace just like she will face today.
For nearly 4 decades I handicapped as you are. Conservative paceline selection usually in the last 4 lines and relied on my factors to guide me. 3 years ago I found the Hat Check blog and switched from HTR/Maxvel to RDSS2. We all have to do what we have to do. The real test is are you making money?
This was a very good example of a race that will screw up all your databases and emphasizes the need to look at the horses, assign Running Styles don't accept the program designated ones as they are energy driven and the energy from race to race will change. Visually, where does the horse do his best running from at the 1st Call? Does he need an open lead? Is he a fighter? Fast horses win accept when they are forced to run too fast early!!!
Hope this helps!

[Latekick]

Very interesting points. I had both winners, i was just curious to see how others may have gotten them because they both seemed like they fit lots of approaches that people use within the methodology.
Successful day today, gearing up for this weekend. Im excited!

[Mark]

For what it's worth, I would have lost the 7th race. I would have bet the #8. The #6 horse did something he had never done before. He won without an open lead. The #7 was lapped on him through much of the race but he kept going in racehorse splits. Little value in the race for me, however.

[Latekick]

Technically i should have lost the 7th. I liked the #2 horse and saw it as a possible lone win bet, however decided to bet it to win and then key it underneath in a few exactas, which ended up saving me when the #6 beat the #2 by a nostril on the line.

[Bill V.]

I am doing this kind of late, I was busy yesterday. I have not looked at who won, but I will go through mmy steps for this race if I had done it live .
So this is how I would have looked at this race

Its a open 16 Claimer at 6 furlongs for 4+ F

Step 1 TPR last line
8 3 5 2 4 - 175

Step 2 Fulcrum
No fulcrum. Nobody's last race was from this distance surface at CD.

Visual Position running styles Doc's 1- 2- 3 method

Horse 1 Presser = 2
Horse 2 Early = 1
Horse 3 Early = 1
Horse 4 Sus = 3
Horse 5 Early = 1
Horse 6 Sus = 3
Horse 7 Press = 2
Horse 8 Early = 1

Pace lines - Best Perceptor, last 3 Comparable (default) but with my changes if
I disagree ** BLT/3c

Horse 1 BLT/3c picked Line 2 - I agree excuse line 1 too high class
Horse 2 BLT/3c picked Line 3 - I agree Excuse line 1 distance first off layoff
race 2 is just a bad race, Line 3 is still recent and horse 2 is in the top 5 TPR last line - which is a big positive.
Horse 3 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I agree
Horse 4 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I agree
Horse 5 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I say no line ,too long a layoff 374 days
Horse 6 BLT/3c picked Line 2 - I went to line 4 just for ratings ( not top 5 TPR )
Horse 7 BLT/3c picked Line 2 - Line 1-2 are non comparable Line 3 is too far back
Horse 8 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I went down one line to line 2 both are plus races

Step 4 Who has the best EPR
Horse 2 and 3 93 and 92.5

Can the 2 go wire to wire ?
I will go to the Segs F1
The 2 owns the 0.0
Its LPR is only 81.5

Best TPR
1 8 2
Best VDC
8 4 1
Best LPR
4 8 1

My look .
The 8 is strong but I think its outside post
and early habits are hurt because of the inside early speed

I would look OTE for the win and go with
1 and 4

[Bill V.]

I just checked /saw the result chart
I would have lost.

I would have not gone to line 3 because its over 189 days. It's TPR and LPR
make it a strong contender.
The 1 ran well to get place but I would have lost this one.

Bill

[Latekick]

Thanks for the work up Bill

[Bill V.]

Race 7 6 furlongs OC 62.5 N2-X 3+

Step 1 TPR last line
4 2 6 8 9

Step 2 Fulcrum
No fulcrum Nobody's last race was from this distance surface at CD

Visual Position running styles Doc's 1- 2- 3 method

Horse 1 Sus = 3
Horse 2 Press = 2
Horse 3 Sus = 3
Horse 4 Press = 2
Horse 5 Press = 2
Horse 6 Early = 1
Horse 7 Early = 1
Horse 8 Sus = 3
Horse 9 Early = 1

Pace lines - Best Perceptor, last 3 Comparable (default) but with my changes if
I disagree ** BLT/3c

Horse 1 BLT/3c picked Line 3- I agree Last 3 races are all comparable and recent
Horse 2 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I agree .
Horse 3 BLT/3c picked Line 2 - I agree line 1 is a trouble trip DQ TM probably fiddled with the numbers.
Horse 4 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I agree
Horse 5 BLT/3c picked Line 1 - I agree
Horse 6 BLT/3c picked Line 2 - I agree both line 1-2 are usable line 2 both are recent
Horse 7 BLT/3c picked Line 3 - Its a muddy line. I can't get bast last two races line 4 is too far back - rating only
Horse 8 BLT/3c picked Line 2 - I agree I went down one line to line 2 both are plus races
Horse 9 BLT/3c picked Line 5 Horse just did not do well at high class races at Tampa
Line 4 is a route Line 5 is comparble but 173 days ago ? outside post ?


Step 4 Who has the best EPR
Horse 9 101 EPR with a 5.5 point advantage over the 4

Can the 9 go wire to wire ?
I will go to the Segs F1

The 9 owns the 0.0 in F1 and F2
Its LPR is 87 drawback is the 9 post

Best TPR
4 9 2
Best VDC
4 2 8
Best LPR
1 8 2-4

My look .
The 9 is strong but I think its outside post
and early habits are hurt because of the inside early speed

I would look OTE for the win as the 9 will push all the earlys
I will go with 4 and 2

Bill