Do you trust this giraffe?

[Jeebs]

Examine the PPs of Hy Quality Prince (#5) in today's 2nd at Gulfstream:



Line 1 is a sustained pressing + line loss by a half length going the one-turn mile distance. Both the PoR and PoH TE are very fast for this class! However, how does it stack up with itself on TPR? Easily a new high.

Based on my pacelines and contenders remaining, #5 is not only the dominant EPR runner, but also the dominant TPR runner:



Now, sit back for the sobering news. #5 is 3/39 lifetime and 0/9 sprinting on dirt. Shaking the confidence even more is that within its last 10 PP's, half of those races are at today's distance, and only one of those I would borderline consider as at least a plus/zero race - all within the past 101 days - this horse is running on average, every 10 days!

At age 6, I seriously doubt this horse is taking a great leap forward. The horse's history suggests that it can't put together two big efforts in a row. Its previous top on TPR (178.5) was followed by a drop off that didn't reverse itself until the end of January, when it showed a more positive pattern before topping off at 176.5 at 1 1/16m and dropping off again.

To me, this is the kind of horse where if you take its last race at face value - despite the preponderance of evidence suggesting that it can't win at today's distance - you will lose money on this type of horse often.

What do you all think?

[Mitch44]

My thoughts are you picked a bad line. I would use line # 3 at 7F. I try to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more that 1F of todays distance. Obviously this is an improving horse, but the question is why? New trainer or new equipment? I don't have that information here but with its age may not repeat that top. Even if declining from last he may run back to line #3. I don't believe Line 1 is correct, why use it when you have 7F lines?
Mitch44

[Jeebs]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

My thoughts are you picked a bad line. I would use line # 3 at 7F. I try to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more that 1F of todays distance. Obviously this is an improving horse, but the question is why? New trainer or new equipment? I don't have that information here but with its age may not repeat that top. Even if declining from last he may run back to line #3. I don't believe Line 1 is correct, why use it when you have 7F lines?
Mitch44

Spot on, Mitch. I agree that this is a bad line. There are plenty of 7F lines to rate this horse off of if one chooses to. However, none of the 7F lines are really ratable. Knowing the information presented to us (the surface/distance record, the 7F races showing in the Form), I can't buy the last line. It throws the race completely out of whack, eliminating virtually the entire field from Win contention.

FWIW, I did not select #5 as a contender when I worked this race solo. My friend KPMats is in a lockdown contest over at DerbyWars today and felt that the horse was a strong contender. Since I had worked this race last night after work (admittedly not the best time to handicap, as fatigue has set in!) I looked back to make sure I didn't miss something. While I did notice the big last line, I then remembered looking at the career box why I threw it out, and it was because of the previous 7F lines/sprint record.

[Jeebs]

This is by no means a way to denigrate KPMats' selection. I validated his thought on the last line (which was that it was fast) and he reasoned that this field has some question marks (i.e. Why is #3 running back in today's class after winning last out?) that could carry #5 in here. I stated the facts about #5's surface/sprint record along with the numerous 7F failures and left it at that. I am not in the business of talking people off their horses. It is their money to win or lose - not mine. I have been talked off winning horses in the past by not following intuition and resented it (usually in private). The mental effect of a wager not made can be exponential if you let it.

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

My thoughts are you picked a bad line. I would use line # 3 at 7F. I try to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more that 1F of todays distance. Obviously this is an improving horse, but the question is why? New trainer or new equipment? I don't have that information here but with its age may not repeat that top. Even if declining from last he may run back to line #3. I don't believe Line 1 is correct, why use it when you have 7F lines?
Mitch44

Jeebs , I agree with Mitch I would not use line 1

Before I get too deep into all the reasons why not,
I think its important to skim every horse in the race

Early steps
Read the conditions
Running styles
Check the ML
Rate every horse's last line for TPR
Do my + (+) and 0's
Find the fulcrum POR

The issue I see with horse 5 is that it has no + races at today's distance
7 furlongs, Line 1 looks overly adjusted in LPR
also 7 furlong races are generally higher in EPR, plus the line is being adjusted from a 1 turn mile

I have many 7 furlong races to rate for this horse and line 3 looks like the horses ability It is 0 for 5 at 7 furlongs at this class level
with no + pace lines

[Mitch44]

Jeebs: While none of its 7F lines are rate able they are what they are, as far as comparable to others. Also keep in mind the pace of route races as compared to sprints are different and softer, He'll most likely get a pace similar to his 7F race in line 3.
Best of luck.
Mitch44

[Lt1]

Hi guys. I'm doing GP today and in this race I gave the 5 line 3. One reason is according to the Bris pps this horse is 0-5 at the distance never hitting the board. Even if you choose to extract from a route line he doesn't move up for me. Line 1 is a lifetime best and being the horse is 6 yrs old I won't use it[a personal choice]. My choices are 3-2-1-5
Tim G

[raceman5]

Jeebs a few weeks back you talked about pace lines and paying attention to

PoH
TE and this horses last line is definitely out of whack with the rest of his races. I would choose line 3.


Bob

[Ted Craven]

PSS = BLT/C selected line 3 (sprint 7f line) for #5, despite it was not a very good effort. But then again - ahem - none of its 7f efforts have been ...

All of it's better route lines are against slower paces than it faced in the 7f sprints, which accounts for why it is more competitive there. The #1 #2 and #3 will provide enough early pace to kill the route pace the #5 has performed credibly at.



I'll take the Rx screen at face value. It kind of looks like a boring betting race. Either of the 1,2,3 could win and it looks like the public will know it, based on the ML estimate.

Ted

[Mitch44]

Ted ? PSS= BLT/C

Mitch44