Bel R8 5/21/17

[omar]

A turf race with multiple layoff horses on the turf. First of all the public doesn't know how to deal with a race like this and so the first thing they do is look to the favorite and we know that they're wrong 2/3 of the time.
I IGNORE LAYOFFS ON THE GRASS. SO YOU WANT TO SEE HOW THEY FARE AFTER A L/O. IF THEY SHOW A GOOD EFFORT AFTER A SIMILAR L/O, DOESN'T HAVE TO BE A WIN, THEN YOU ACCEPT THEIR CURRENT FORM FOR NOW.
To begin with i tossed the 10 right away. 23 dirt starts and 3 turf starts never hitting the board and facing multiple turf winners today.
#2 got bumped around in last and was sent to Fairhill, one 4f w/o at Fai. Look at his w/o pattern in April 3 w/o's 6 days apart, 2 at Bel and 1 at Kee. I just don't like him for win. I'll use his first race because his late fraction is similar to his last start and i don't think he's in any condition to run to his maiden victory;
#3 Runs good after a l/o, but ran a real hard race off a lengthy l/o and i think he may be muscle sore and so i'll use his 3rd race back;
#4 has only 2 turf starts, one was over his head so use his 12/31 race;
#5 has only 4 starts-all dirt. Outclassed in last, runaway winner 2 back, likes to run early, I used the 1/7 race but has a low turf # for breeding compared to the others so probably won't do much here except figure in the pace;
#6 another l/o, always trying, earned $170,000+ on grass, runs well fresh, 6-1 m/l but 23-1 on board. Seems to be gearing up for another grass campaign this spring,summer,fall season. I used his 6/23/16 race. So he's ny bred, who cares, i don't;
#7 another l/o horse but didn't run well in first start. used his 9/25/16 race to rate him;
#8 another l/o horse, multiple winner on grass, figures to argue the pace but clearly did not run well first 3 starts;
#11 another l/o horse who ran 2nd in his 1st start and 3rd in his 2nd start, used his 5/22/16 race.
The 4 was my top PPF horse(closing fraction) a slight underlay to his 15-1 m/l. The 6 was my top PBS horse and clearly an overlay to his m/l; the 3 &11 were underneath him, the 11 a weak fav at 3-1 and the 3 was a slight overlay at 9/2 to his m/l. But the program odds on these horses were #6 (7-1), #3(6-1), #11 (6-1) and # 4 (8-1). If you bet 2 horses you bet the 6 & 4.
They ran #6 $32.80, $13.20, $7.20 2 Ex 6-11 $161.00
#11 $5.40, $3.60 2 Tri 6-11-3 $683.00
#3 $4.40 2 Sup 6-11-3-4 $4,944.00