Field Size

[derrick24948]

What are folks' thoughts on a minimum field size before you'll wager?

I see many differing opinions on the topic and I go back and forth myself. There's roi vs. profit to consider. I.e. larger fields likely have a higher roi, but if there's a positive return in 6 or 7 horse races, then the overall profit could be higher (given more opportunity).

For example: I'm following Woodbine, Saratoga, and Colonial (my home track) right now. Sar and Cl are showing solid profits and in any field 6+ runners (though 8+ is the highest roi), while Woodbine shows a loss for any field less than 8. At woodbine I'm showing a solid positive return at 8+ runners.

[Lt1]

I have no problem playing 6 horse fields if the prices are right on the horses I like. Just hit
a $75 ex at TDN[R2] in a 6 horse field[see races of interest]. The winner pd $10.00 and the place horse $11.80]. Your record keeping answers your question on what to play where.
Tim

[dadams6357]

Yes I agree with the Wizard on this one.
Don

[Lt1]

Just to add a little more on the subject there were 2 other ok exactas in 6 horse fields at TDN today. The race 6 ex pd $256.40[I didn't get this one].and R8 43.20[did get this one. The r6-r8 P3 had field sizes of 6,7,6 pd $126.80. So folks it can be done but you must pick your spots. Look for fields where you feel the fav is weak or down right false and go for it.
Tim

[Lt1]

If anyone has a chance check out the payoffs at FL today[8-14] where none of the races had more then 6 horses. I posted 2 winning races in the races of interest section.
Tim

[rdiam]

For those who believe that betting should be based on large sample sizes, math, and probabilities, I would suggest the following decision rules for field size:

1. Pass on vertical bets when field size is 7 or fewer. With 42 or fewer exacta combinations, the chance of finding +EV bets is substantially reduced.

2. Pass on vertical bets when you cannot toss AT LEAST 20% of the runners, preferable 30%.

Good luck.

[The Pook]

At Finger Lakes yesterday (Aug 15th) in the third race an opportunity presented itself with a lone early. The 2 horse had only three opponents. He was the longest shot. He led all the way and held on for $10.80. Easier for him than having seven opponents.

Pook

[Lt1]

Nice work Mike. The race 2-3 DD came back $36.20 & the r-3-4 dd came back $43.60. Pretty good for fields of 6 ,4 & 6 horses.
Tim

[ranchwest]

There was a 4 horse race at Saratoga today that paid $36.00 on a $1 exacta with the odds on favorite running last. No pace meltdown, traffic, lost jockey or anything odd. I didn't have a data file, so I don't know if this was pickable, but it goes to show that field size doesn't always prevent an overlay.

[Tim Y]

Helps the price to spraed the wagers around, but 6 is the least I would back, BUT then at some tracks (Mahoning Downs) that works well.