NewPace

[gptx]

I wanted to ask this question again in case it got lost in an earlier thread.

"Speaking of Leverage /Pace, I have been watching the tutorial videos and realized I know nothing about NewPace. Are their any resources here at Pace and Cap to learn about NP or would it be beneficial to order the seminar from Dave Schwartz?"

[AwesomeAgain]

Go to the Google Site Search and type it in. There you will find several threads on New Pace and how it works. Basically, its taking the two best early and two best late horses in each race. I believe that you are to factor in the bias and determine whether the early or late horses have the best chance to win.
Hopefully someone in here who knows the concept can explain it better.

[gptx]

Thank you,

I have done that and found a little info. but not what I was wanting to get a good feel for it.

[kahunab]

Watching Dave's videos (I know he has gone beyond these basics) I have learned that what this basic screen tells us, is looking at all the lines in the "shown" past performances, that there is a 90% chance that the horse will run between these two speed ratings in this race. Looking at the 3 horse Mrs. Katz, we expect her to run between an 80 and an 85 speed rating today.

There is a book out called, I believe, How to Measure Anything. Statically, with 10 events if you take the 4th lowest, here 80, and the 3rd highest, here 85, there is a 90% statistical chance the horse will run between those two scores. You can see in her last two races she ran a 90 and an 87, so you can expect her to run to the upper limit of her expected range. Here is a look at all the horses in the race. Obviously, this is not exact. One needs to handicap the horse further. BUT, it is a look at the horses entire shown past performances and is a point of information for our handicapping. Watch how often this helps our decision making.

[gptx]

Thank you very much Kahunab, and thank you to everyone for the fine work and tutorials on Leverage/Pace!

[MJS6916]

In the image here, the runners are sorted by the ES% column.

From my scans of the New Pace screen, my guess is that the
probabilities of which horse(s) are most likely to grab/contest the early lead (1st call)
aren't calculated solely based on the "early speed points";
and that the adjusted numbers seen in the Velocity POH screen are involved.

Am I correct? or wrong about this?

More questions:

Are the individual runners' "early speed points" calculated by RDSS?, and how?
Is it about the runner's competitive lines?,
or just based on early position and beaten lengths?;
and is the "RS & early speed points" designation limited to recency (or a set number of lines back in the PPs)?

I thought I did read that RDSS does an average of the runner's
early position & lengths behind; but I don't know how many lines back
RDSS goes.

I'm aware of how William Quirin used to add up the "early speed points";
and how Dave Schwartz did it about 6 years ago.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Next to the #7's 34 in the 62% Accum. column looks like a 56.
What does that mean?

The #1 is the swing horse? OK.
It sounds like he's neither Early nor Late.

Finally, the "POR: 86" at the bottom of the 62% Accum. list.
Not sure how to use that, or if it's meaningful at all.

Thanks in advance,
Mike

[Jake]

[QUOTE=kahunab;156630]Watching Dave's videos (I know he has gone beyond these basics) I have learned that what this basic screen tells us, is looking at all the lines in the "shown" past performances, that there is a 90% chance that the horse will run between these two speed ratings in this race. Looking at the 3 horse Mrs. Katz, we expect her to run between an 80 and an 85 speed rating today.
Attachment 54245
There is a book out called, I believe, How to Measure Anything. Statically, with 10 events if you take the 4th lowest, here 80, and the 3rd highest, here 85, there is a 90% statistical chance the horse will run between those two scores. You can see in her last two races she ran a 90 and an 87, so you can expect her to run to the upper limit of her expected range. Here is a look at all the horses in the race. Obviously, this is not exact. One needs to handicap the horse further. BUT, it is a look at the horses entire shown past performances and is a point of information for our handicapping. Watch how often this helps our decision making.



"How to Measure Anything. Statically, with 10 events if you take the 4th lowest, here 80, and the 3rd highest, here 85, there is a 90% statistical chance the horse will run between those two scores"

Are you sure about that???

[Jake]

[QUOTE=Jake;156933]

Originally Posted by kahunab

Watching Dave's videos (I know he has gone beyond these basics) I have learned that what this basic screen tells us, is looking at all the lines in the "shown" past performances, that there is a 90% chance that the horse will run between these two speed ratings in this race. Looking at the 3 horse Mrs. Katz, we expect her to run between an 80 and an 85 speed rating today.
Attachment 54245
There is a book out called, I believe, How to Measure Anything. Statically, with 10 events if you take the 4th lowest, here 80, and the 3rd highest, here 85, there is a 90% statistical chance the horse will run between those two scores. You can see in her last two races she ran a 90 and an 87, so you can expect her to run to the upper limit of her expected range. Here is a look at all the horses in the race. Obviously, this is not exact. One needs to handicap the horse further. BUT, it is a look at the horses entire shown past performances and is a point of information for our handicapping. Watch how often this helps our decision making.



"How to Measure Anything. Statically, with 10 events if you take the 4th lowest, here 80, and the 3rd highest, here 85, there is a 90% statistical chance the horse will run between those two scores"

Are you sure about that???

Can you explain with more clarity what you are saying here, please.

[kahunab]

Hi,
I am currently out of town and circulation. If you want we can connect next week some time and I will try to answer your questions.

Dick

[Jake]

Originally Posted by kahunab

Hi,
I am currently out of town and circulation. If you want we can connect next week some time and I will try to answer your questions.

Dick

Dick,

You're an extremely kind guy, thanks. I ordered his book. I have a strong
statistical background after many years of financial database programming.

I think I'm misunderstanding your framing here in your answer: 4th lowest and 3rd highest?
So, 10 speed ratings: 80,82,84,(86),88,90,92,(94),96,98. 4th lowest is 86 and 3rd highest 94.
Median is 89, makes the standard deviation roughly 6 points. So, in the 83-95 likely range.

(The 10 race sample is admittedly extreme here. Think of a 2yr. old to 3yr horse, in his 3rd year.
However, it's easier to see this way).

I suggest a different statistical approach. I know the most likely range is in the last 3 speed numbers.
So, 98,96,94 plus the 98. Here, median value is 97, standard deviation is is roughly 1.7. My research on
estimating speed figures ranges over the years says this is more reasonable place to hang your hat ...
big nod to both you and The Hat.