A Classic Handicapping and Longshot Play

[kahunab]

Good Morning, Gentlemen,
I haven’t been on much the last few weeks because I wasn’t sure I had anything interesting to say to our racing community. I went this past week on a retreat with my sons and grandsons to LasVegas. (Don’t get me started on how expensive Las Vegas has become!) We did have a great time and I did get to handicap a whole bunch of races.
I found this race at Santa Anita to be very interesting and illustrative of several handicapping with RDSS points. This is an allowance race on the downhill 6.5 T. A pretty high class race with a field of 10.


I don’t know if any of you have checked out our database but we now have over 4551 races. The data is pretty clear that over all distances, all surfaces and all classes at all tracks we can count on the computer selected lines (best of the last 3) giving us the winner in the top 5 RX3 scores an awesome 93% of the time. Place will be there in the top 5 89% of the time and show will be there 85% of the time. Mathmatically speaking, that means that the Exacta will be there .93X.89 or about 83% of the time and the trifecta in those top 5 70% of the time.




Using that data, we select our top 5 RX3 horses as our main contenders. Horses that show a little something or a couple of factors become Secondary contenders. As we look at this screen we note the 6 horse, recent race, good SR and TE. The 8 also fits in many categories. He and the 6 have by far the best RX scores and have good leverage pace scores. I made the 6 my key horse because of his recency and the 8’s long lay off. He has some good works and may be ready to run. He will be one of my companion horses but remember we want the horse most likely to Win or Place.
A quick check of our Secondary Contenders. Note the Red Arrows. Both the 7 and the 1 have numbers indicating they are RMath or 4Score longshots. The 1 has more supporting evidence. But they both could be considered for a long shot play. The 7 does have a long layoff going against it. So in my opinion, not as strong a play as the 1.




We check the BL/BL screen. Our 6 and 8 both appear as the top 2 strongest horses. I still lean toward the 6 as the key because of the 8’s year long layoff. We once again see some evidence that our two secondary horses can run in this field. If I have to pick one to make a companion, I am still leaning towards the 1.


OMG, note here that the 1 horse is #1 in TSF3. A primary score for a winner in a late race which this is. This is a classic looking Werpy longshot. So the 1 is a RMath Longshot and a Werpy Longshot better include him as a companion. His VDC supports his inclusion.


Final look, again the race should run late with 19 ESP so the graph is lined up on the low side. It appears here that the 6 can run a better late race than the 8 so that supports my Key designation. And as you can see the results our Key horse did in fact run a better race than the 8 as the 6 placed. I often look at the high unpressured side. I am collecting data but it appears that a high percentage of the time when lined up High, the top two Early graphs (Red) and the top two Late graphs (Blue) and the Purple (Swing) will score the Exacta. No data, just observation , but look at the High line up below, the Exacta is in the top 2 Red and the Top 2 Blue. Purple doesn’t score here. I also read CSR here not only as a speed rating but a statement of Form. You will be surprised when you balance the graph with the top 5 CSR when you have your top 5 contenders. Note here also, that our show horse was one of our contenders for win with CSR outside the top 5 but he was a contender on our analysis screen.





Let’s look at how we did. I used the 6 as my Key to win or place in an exacta key box. 6/8,10,9,1. I chose the 9 over the 4 for a couple of reasons I won’t go into here. You can see that we were right. The race ran late. Our RMath and Werpy longshot won and our Key horse ran 2nd. I did not bet the Trifecta but wish I had.


I hope this was a helpful exercise. If you have any questions, please ask and I will do my best to answer.

Have a great Day! Happy Handicapping!

[AwesomeAgain]

Boom! Easy Money!!Nice job

[Lt1]

Well done presentation Dick. I just want to remind folks that to qualify as a RMATH LSP the horse must be a NON-CONTENER to start. If you use the 4# approach[which I do] you will note that neither horse is in the top 5 ranked PL or BPP horses therefore they are qualified non-contenders. If you use the leverage approach like Dick you note that neither are in the top 5 RX3 horses therefore qualified again. If you do as Dick did making them secondary contenders remember to note that they were qualified Non Contenders LSPS to start then follow the steps Dick has laid out above.
Tim

[shoeless]

Dick

I agree with LT 1 nicely done and easy to follow.

Jeff

[kahunab]

Thanks, Guys.

I realized after I posted that I did not make clear that to qualify as a LS the horse must be a non-contender by whatever method you use to identify your contenders.
In fact, the reason I chose this race was because the winner was a non-contender by either the 4-Score or the Leverage Pace approach and was easy to read as a Longshot play with supporting evidence. So, thanks for clarifying that Tim.


Dick

[Lt1]

You are welcome Dick. Just wanted to make sure tat some newer folks might not have been aware of the lsp having to be a non-contender. Many should benefit from your post if they take the time to read it.
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

Tim, just curious about something. Do you incorporate RX3 Profit line numbers in your final wagering decisions, or do you just stick with the top 5 from Bris? I can see how using the the top 5 RX3 can land winners the way Dick explained. Just curious to know what you use. Or do you switch it up? Thanks!

[Lt1]

Hi Brian. My contenders are always the top 5 PL & BPP horses. I do use RX3 & the BL/BL screen when making my final decisions
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

Thanks Tim!

[Lt1]

Anytime Brian. Friends helping friends is what it is all about. We can all learn from each other.
Tim