Getting It Down To One Horse - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 10-15-2006, 06:42 PM

Jim and Richie,Sorry to be such a pain but I have another question.Today I capped 4 races using The Match Up in two of them I had it down to 4 contenders and the other two I had it down to 3 contenders.In all 4 races I had the win and place horse but I failed to bet on the winner in any of them.At some point could you PLEASE put up example races after you have the contenders already in and show us how to get it down to one horse to bet.It would be very much appreciated by a old timer such as myself as it really getting FRUSTRATING.Jeff

dugoutgold · 10-16-2006, 01:02 AM

I know were you are coming from on this one jeff. Im the same way here I can get it down to 4 or 3 ( models on aoddsgold98 help) but still have probs getting it down to one horse. Im sure Rich and JB will address this though.

Hang in there

Doug

THE HAT · 10-16-2006, 11:51 AM

Guys,

I have a problem in answering this question, because you are asking a question using software. I don’t know which running lines you use, nor contenders you have entered into your software.

Teaching The Match Up I tell everyone: If you can’t get it down to one horse "pass the race." The best way to determine the horse, or horses you are going to bet on, is use running styles and match the horses line by line. Find the "power line" for each horse and determine how these lines match up
with today’s pace.

The Hat

emilio840 · 10-16-2006, 12:28 PM

Hi Jim.

One of my biggest problem is dealing with horses that have the same patern as #7 in the practice race.

Where that horse will have 4 or 5 Good races than has 4 or 5 bad races.

This horse #7 is clearly the fastest of them all, but, when I bet them I lose and when I don't . They win.

In that race I picked the #6 to wire the field, but if I was betting maybe I would have picked the #7 to win.

emilio

shoeless · 10-16-2006, 06:19 PM

Jim,I wasnt talking about using any software,those races I did were just done with The Match Up.I know what you are saying if you cant get it down to one horse dont bet but I cant seem to ever be able to do it.Jeff

Bob Cochran · 12-05-2006, 09:19 AM

Hello Jeff.

In reading your post , it occurred to me that you might check the 3rd
fraction energy percentiles to further reduce the contenders. This assumes
of course, you in fact have used the true contenders in the race.

10-15-2006, 06:42 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Getting It Down To One Horse Jim and Richie,Sorry to be such a pain but I have another question.Today I capped 4 races using The Match Up in two of them I had it down to 4 contenders and the other two I had it down to 3 contenders.In all 4 races I had the win and place horse but I failed to bet on the winner in any of them.At some point could you PLEASE put up example races after you have the contenders already in and show us how to get it down to one horse to bet.It would be very much appreciated by a old timer such as myself as it really getting FRUSTRATING.Jeff Last edited by shoeless; 10-15-2006 at 06:45 PM.

10-16-2006, 12:28 PM	#4
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Practice Race Hi Jim. One of my biggest problem is dealing with horses that have the same patern as #7 in the practice race. Where that horse will have 4 or 5 Good races than has 4 or 5 bad races. This horse #7 is clearly the fastest of them all, but, when I bet them I lose and when I don't . They win. In that race I picked the #6 to wire the field, but if I was betting maybe I would have picked the #7 to win. emilio

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10-16-2006, 01:02 AM	#2
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	I know were you are coming from on this one jeff. Im the same way here I can get it down to 4 or 3 ( models on aoddsgold98 help) but still have probs getting it down to one horse. Im sure Rich and JB will address this though. Hang in there Doug

10-16-2006, 11:51 AM	#3
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Guys, I have a problem in answering this question, because you are asking a question using software. I don’t know which running lines you use, nor contenders you have entered into your software. Teaching The Match Up I tell everyone: If you can’t get it down to one horse "pass the race." The best way to determine the horse, or horses you are going to bet on, is use running styles and match the horses line by line. Find the "power line" for each horse and determine how these lines match up with today’s pace. The Hat

10-16-2006, 06:19 PM	#5
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Jim,I wasnt talking about using any software,those races I did were just done with The Match Up.I know what you are saying if you cant get it down to one horse dont bet but I cant seem to ever be able to do it.Jeff

12-05-2006, 09:19 AM	#6
Bob Cochran Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 330	Getting it down to one horse Hello Jeff. In reading your post , it occurred to me that you might check the 3rd fraction energy percentiles to further reduce the contenders. This assumes of course, you in fact have used the true contenders in the race.