Profit Line Vs Prime Power!! - Pace and Cap

AwesomeAgain · 05-01-2026, 12:43 PM

Prime Power and Profit Line are looking at the same race, but they are not asking the same question. Prime Power is a ranking of raw ability based on speed figures, class, and consistency, built on the assumption that the race unfolds clean and the strongest horse asserts itself. That approach works when the pace environment is controlled and predictable, especially in softer races where early position holds and nothing interferes with the expected order. The issue is that it leans too heavily on early dominance and surface level strength, which can make it look solid on paper while ignoring whether the race shape will actually allow that strength to show up.

Profit Line is built to answer a different question, which is how the race is likely to finish when things start to break. It is not just measuring who is fastest, it is interpreting how pace, pressure, and structure interact, which makes it more reliable when the race becomes uncomfortable. As NewPace pressure rises, especially into the higher POR ranges, the gap between what looks strongest and what actually wins starts to widen. That is where Prime Power begins to lose reliability and Profit Line holds together better because it is aligned with how the race is actually unfolding, not how it was expected to unfold. In races like the Oaks and Derby, where pressure and chaos are always lurking, understanding that shift is the difference between following the paper and reading the race.

Now all of you go out and cash some tickets this weekend!!

dadams6357 · 05-01-2026, 04:29 PM

Brian
If this is the case then if one is to break down a model into early late and neutral then this should show. So a softer race would be like a neutral? If that is the case then it would show Prime Power on a higher percentage of winners than PL?
Thanks for the post.
Don

AwesomeAgain · 05-01-2026, 07:41 PM

Don, I wouldn’t call a soft race neutral because neutral is the visual pace bias, not the pressure. A soft POR is still early, it just does not look aggressive because no one is applying pressure. It is controlled pace, not balanced pace, while true neutral shows up when the visual bias indicates both early and late can win depending on how the race unfolds.
Where your thinking is right is in the model. In softer races you should see Prime Power outperform Profit Line in win percentage because the race allows raw ability and position to hold. As POR rises that relationship should flip. Prime Power becomes less reliable and Profit Line starts capturing more winners because it reflects how the race actually finishes. If your model does not show that shift, then the read or the segmentation is off. Hope this helps!

dadams6357 · 05-01-2026, 08:20 PM

Brian
Gotcha ...your talking about POR listed under new pace not the Velocity Por.
No way can you model that because the New Pace POR is not stored in model worksheets.
I noticed you posted a break down of the New Pace Por in regards to race pressured.
Will go searching.
Thanks again Brian.
Slowly but surely catching on.
Don

AwesomeAgain · 05-01-2026, 09:01 PM

Correct Don Por under newpace. As pressure builds, the race stops respecting rankings and starts rewarding survival. This is where Prime Power begins to lose reliability while Profit Line becomes more predictive because it is aligned with how the race actually finishes rather than how it appears on paper. Horses that can absorb pressure, distribute energy efficiently, and finish through chaos start to dominate the outcome. NewPace POR ranges define this transition clearly with 0 to 65 representing soft pressure, 66 to 72 a gray or chaotic zone, 73 to 82 moderate pressure, and 83 and above signaling a full meltdown.

dadams6357 · 05-01-2026, 09:13 PM

Brian
So if the NP POR IS LIKE 45...THEN LOOKING AT HORSES THAT HAVE AN ESP RATING OF E EP SHOULD BE HIGHLY CONSIDERED.(NO REASON FOR CAPS)
Is my thinking going along correct lines.
Thanks
Don

AwesomeAgain · 05-01-2026, 09:51 PM

Newpace Por 45 very soft pace......front runners should be able to control the tempo.Usually if the Por is that low Newpace should already be toggled to unpressured high side.

dadams6357 · 05-01-2026, 10:55 PM

Brian
Just hit exacta for $100 spent $20 to make 80.
20 box...should of bet the tri..
Your method picked the top horse...and the place had all number finished in 2nd.
Thanks for the explanation.
Appreciate it.
Don

AwesomeAgain · 05-02-2026, 09:23 AM

That is awesome Don. Keep stacking those wins and hits! All the best!

05-01-2026, 12:43 PM	#1
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 304	Profit Line Vs Prime Power!! Prime Power and Profit Line are looking at the same race, but they are not asking the same question. Prime Power is a ranking of raw ability based on speed figures, class, and consistency, built on the assumption that the race unfolds clean and the strongest horse asserts itself. That approach works when the pace environment is controlled and predictable, especially in softer races where early position holds and nothing interferes with the expected order. The issue is that it leans too heavily on early dominance and surface level strength, which can make it look solid on paper while ignoring whether the race shape will actually allow that strength to show up. Profit Line is built to answer a different question, which is how the race is likely to finish when things start to break. It is not just measuring who is fastest, it is interpreting how pace, pressure, and structure interact, which makes it more reliable when the race becomes uncomfortable. As NewPace pressure rises, especially into the higher POR ranges, the gap between what looks strongest and what actually wins starts to widen. That is where Prime Power begins to lose reliability and Profit Line holds together better because it is aligned with how the race is actually unfolding, not how it was expected to unfold. In races like the Oaks and Derby, where pressure and chaos are always lurking, understanding that shift is the difference between following the paper and reading the race. Now all of you go out and cash some tickets this weekend!!

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05-01-2026, 04:29 PM	#2
dadams6357 Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 538	Brian If this is the case then if one is to break down a model into early late and neutral then this should show. So a softer race would be like a neutral? If that is the case then it would show Prime Power on a higher percentage of winners than PL? Thanks for the post. Don

05-01-2026, 07:41 PM	#3
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 304	Don, I wouldn’t call a soft race neutral because neutral is the visual pace bias, not the pressure. A soft POR is still early, it just does not look aggressive because no one is applying pressure. It is controlled pace, not balanced pace, while true neutral shows up when the visual bias indicates both early and late can win depending on how the race unfolds. Where your thinking is right is in the model. In softer races you should see Prime Power outperform Profit Line in win percentage because the race allows raw ability and position to hold. As POR rises that relationship should flip. Prime Power becomes less reliable and Profit Line starts capturing more winners because it reflects how the race actually finishes. If your model does not show that shift, then the read or the segmentation is off. Hope this helps!

05-01-2026, 08:20 PM	#4
dadams6357 Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 538	Brian Gotcha ...your talking about POR listed under new pace not the Velocity Por. No way can you model that because the New Pace POR is not stored in model worksheets. I noticed you posted a break down of the New Pace Por in regards to race pressured. Will go searching. Thanks again Brian. Slowly but surely catching on. Don

05-01-2026, 09:01 PM	#5
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 304	Correct Don Por under newpace. As pressure builds, the race stops respecting rankings and starts rewarding survival. This is where Prime Power begins to lose reliability while Profit Line becomes more predictive because it is aligned with how the race actually finishes rather than how it appears on paper. Horses that can absorb pressure, distribute energy efficiently, and finish through chaos start to dominate the outcome. NewPace POR ranges define this transition clearly with 0 to 65 representing soft pressure, 66 to 72 a gray or chaotic zone, 73 to 82 moderate pressure, and 83 and above signaling a full meltdown.

05-01-2026, 09:13 PM	#6
dadams6357 Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 538	Brian So if the NP POR IS LIKE 45...THEN LOOKING AT HORSES THAT HAVE AN ESP RATING OF E EP SHOULD BE HIGHLY CONSIDERED.(NO REASON FOR CAPS) Is my thinking going along correct lines. Thanks Don

05-01-2026, 09:51 PM	#7
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 304	Newpace Por 45 very soft pace......front runners should be able to control the tempo.Usually if the Por is that low Newpace should already be toggled to unpressured high side.

05-01-2026, 10:55 PM	#8
dadams6357 Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 538	Brian Just hit exacta for $100 spent $20 to make 80. 20 box...should of bet the tri.. Your method picked the top horse...and the place had all number finished in 2nd. Thanks for the explanation. Appreciate it. Don

05-02-2026, 09:23 AM	#9
AwesomeAgain Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2016 Location: West Melbourne, Florida Posts: 304	That is awesome Don. Keep stacking those wins and hits! All the best!