Early Races - Pace and Cap

shoeless · 02-01-2007, 08:21 PM

Let's say you come across a race where the only horses that can run against today's pace are all early horses.How would you go about determining the outcome of the race or is it best just to leave it alone.Shoeless

dugoutgold · 02-01-2007, 11:04 PM

there are usually Jeff two types of Es. The ones that fight fo the lead all the way and those who quit when challanged. be sure to check all the pps for the horse before deciding. The quiter types usually are found running in the bottom
of the barrel claiming races. Make sure also before saying, this one is a quiter that the race (or races it ran in) didnt have a pace faster than todays.
If the race is a maiden or non winners of 2 type and...one or more of the E types is a lightly raced horse with just a few races under his/her belt dont assume that the horse is an E type only! These types are green and dont have an established running style yet. Countless times I have seem these lr E types win as pressers or sp types. Watch the tote on these if they are not morning line favorites and get heavy play even though thier pace lines dont match up beware!! You just pass the race. If both types are quiters you have problem, Id look at the 2d and 3d fractions of course and the total energy and/or tpr to see if one has an advantage. Most of these situations happen in the nw2l type races.

shoeless · 02-02-2007, 07:10 AM

I forgot to put in my post that all of these early types have about the same fractions so no horse would get a clear cut lead.Shoeless

shoeless · 02-02-2007, 05:33 PM

Dugout well thanks at least for your reply.

02-01-2007, 08:21 PM	#1
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Early Races Let's say you come across a race where the only horses that can run against today's pace are all early horses.How would you go about determining the outcome of the race or is it best just to leave it alone.Shoeless

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02-01-2007, 11:04 PM	#2
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	there are usually Jeff two types of Es. The ones that fight fo the lead all the way and those who quit when challanged. be sure to check all the pps for the horse before deciding. The quiter types usually are found running in the bottom of the barrel claiming races. Make sure also before saying, this one is a quiter that the race (or races it ran in) didnt have a pace faster than todays. If the race is a maiden or non winners of 2 type and...one or more of the E types is a lightly raced horse with just a few races under his/her belt dont assume that the horse is an E type only! These types are green and dont have an established running style yet. Countless times I have seem these lr E types win as pressers or sp types. Watch the tote on these if they are not morning line favorites and get heavy play even though thier pace lines dont match up beware!! You just pass the race. If both types are quiters you have problem, Id look at the 2d and 3d fractions of course and the total energy and/or tpr to see if one has an advantage. Most of these situations happen in the nw2l type races.

02-02-2007, 07:10 AM	#3
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	I forgot to put in my post that all of these early types have about the same fractions so no horse would get a clear cut lead.Shoeless

02-02-2007, 05:33 PM	#4
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	Dugout well thanks at least for your reply.