Form vs Form Cycle - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 01-04-2007, 11:12 AM

Would love to hear some feedback on this:

Here are the pp's for a horse coming into "today's" race. Todays race is run 17 days after the last race showing and is a logical step up from nw1x to nw2x ok?

The speed ratings you see to the right include variants etc etc.

So we see this horse and it looks real sharp. Just had a tremendous win. Form guys say it is terrific.

Form CYCLE guys might see things a bit differently. They see the last race is a huge 10 point move forward from it's previous and note that the race is by far it's best ever.

Comments/feedback are most welcome.

here is the screenshot

RichieP · 01-04-2007, 11:14 AM

Now here are the full pp's of the horse. Went down the tubes in "todays race" at even money.

Things do go the other way too. Just curious as to what folks think

Form vs Form Cycle analysis

screenshot of full pp's

tompkins · 01-04-2007, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Now here are the full pp's of the horse. Went down the tubes in "todays race" at even money.

Things do go the other way too. Just curious as to what folks think

Form vs Form Cycle analysis

screenshot of full pp's

horse ran versus progressively SLOWER half mile splits and did not dominate.

Bill Lyster · 01-04-2007, 02:53 PM

Richie:

I'm not a form cycle guy but have the following observations:

Whenever horse seemed to try harder to engage the lead, lines 3 and 9, he couldn't close. Against the fastest pace he raced against, he held off 9+ lengths and made run. Virtually all races when not near lead produce "+" type races. Suggest you look at F2 in Speculator and see if track variant on "106" was out of the normal range and then confirm by checking the F3 Perceptor ratings to see if the big effort was demonstrably too much of an improvement. I'll accept a best effort in last race but only if it is not a quantum leap. Another check would be F4 screen and see where the horses %med's are centered. I don't like to use races that get too far away from where a horse was successful.

Another point. apparently the trainer was fooled as well. the PP's show races at predominantly 30+ day intervals and the subject race was run back in 17 days and that was after nearly a 2 month rest (he missed a race). Best results have been when races spaced at 4-6 weeks. All things considered what are usually "+" marks might have been reason, FOR THIS HORSE, to be "?" marks.

Funny game, aint it?

Bill

shoeless · 01-04-2007, 08:44 PM

Bounced Off Last Race

dugoutgold · 01-04-2007, 10:55 PM

Hate to sound "mainstream" here but Id be interested to see what class the horse is running today, if its a fairly good drop after that last win, the yellow light would be up here. If the same class then Id more than likely go with it. I too am not a form cycle person here as I have never seen a study or anything pointing to how relevant "form cycles" are.

admin · 01-06-2007, 08:37 AM

Rich
when I ran the CR/APV for each horse all 8 horses
had very high class ratings and only two horse
# 1 and # 3 had lower than 100's
This to me shows a tough task for Horse # 1
if its dropping off that win

Bill

01-04-2007, 11:12 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Form vs Form Cycle Would love to hear some feedback on this: Here are the pp's for a horse coming into "today's" race. Todays race is run 17 days after the last race showing and is a logical step up from nw1x to nw2x ok? The speed ratings you see to the right include variants etc etc. So we see this horse and it looks real sharp. Just had a tremendous win. Form guys say it is terrific. Form CYCLE guys might see things a bit differently. They see the last race is a huge 10 point move forward from it's previous and note that the race is by far it's best ever. Comments/feedback are most welcome. here is the screenshot Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-04-2007, 11:14 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Now here are the full pp's of the horse. Went down the tubes in "todays race" at even money. Things do go the other way too. Just curious as to what folks think Form vs Form Cycle analysis screenshot of full pp's Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

01-06-2007, 08:37 AM	#7
admin Administrator Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,643	Apv Cr Rich when I ran the CR/APV for each horse all 8 horses had very high class ratings and only two horse # 1 and # 3 had lower than 100's This to me shows a tough task for Horse # 1 if its dropping off that win Bill

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01-04-2007, 02:53 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,500	Richie: I'm not a form cycle guy but have the following observations: Whenever horse seemed to try harder to engage the lead, lines 3 and 9, he couldn't close. Against the fastest pace he raced against, he held off 9+ lengths and made run. Virtually all races when not near lead produce "+" type races. Suggest you look at F2 in Speculator and see if track variant on "106" was out of the normal range and then confirm by checking the F3 Perceptor ratings to see if the big effort was demonstrably too much of an improvement. I'll accept a best effort in last race but only if it is not a quantum leap. Another check would be F4 screen and see where the horses %med's are centered. I don't like to use races that get too far away from where a horse was successful. Another point. apparently the trainer was fooled as well. the PP's show races at predominantly 30+ day intervals and the subject race was run back in 17 days and that was after nearly a 2 month rest (he missed a race). Best results have been when races spaced at 4-6 weeks. All things considered what are usually "+" marks might have been reason, FOR THIS HORSE, to be "?" marks. Funny game, aint it? Bill

01-04-2007, 08:44 PM	#5
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,651	Bounced Off Last Race

01-04-2007, 10:55 PM	#6
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	Hate to sound "mainstream" here but Id be interested to see what class the horse is running today, if its a fairly good drop after that last win, the yellow light would be up here. If the same class then Id more than likely go with it. I too am not a form cycle person here as I have never seen a study or anything pointing to how relevant "form cycles" are.