e/l relativity to the rescue - Pace and Cap

tompkins · 01-17-2007, 07:11 PM

1st race - Tampa Bay Downs - January 17, 2007
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
2 Stricks Chairman 101.40 33.60 15.40
4 Drift'n South 6.40 5.00
3 Czech Dancer 8.60

$2 Exacta 2-4 282.60

This one was gettable. I did not notice until too late. The huge favorite here (I will add it's running lines in the follow up post) was not worth a bet as it had NOT contended at all in three trips to the post. AH, but put the magic name up in the trainers box NicK Zito and the crowd just gives up all logic and thinks that this fellow can make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

NONE of these animals can run and in really horrible fields like that you look for those that can run a little to get out front and stay there: LIKE THIS ONE DID.

tompkins · 01-17-2007, 07:13 PM

how could you seriously consider this one? Shows no competitive spirit at all.

tompkins · 01-17-2007, 07:18 PM

the 2 and 6 were both close and one kept on going. Note the big favorite ran just the same way for the fourth time in a row.

tompkins · 01-20-2007, 07:39 PM

happened yet again. In an exacta no less.....didn't see the exotic until reviewing.

8th race - Oaklawn Park - January 20, 2007
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Country Diva 74.20 29.00 9.80
6 Fast Deal 20.20 9.20
8 Tax Refund 3.40

$2 Exacta 4-6 937.20

wow of the top four, three were in the tri too

shoeless · 01-21-2007, 08:34 AM

How do you decide if you are going to put in multiple pacelines for a horse?

tompkins · 01-21-2007, 12:22 PM

top line goes in first, then, to miss the chance of sample error, I find another line vs a similar pace for the comparison. Tough to bet on a horse that only showed speed once unless it is the LAST line and the animal is on an improving trend.

Philosophy here is to not bet on a horse if it has NOT shown the same energy distribution before.

shoeless · 01-21-2007, 09:28 PM

makes sense thanks

01-17-2007, 07:11 PM	#1
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	e/l relativity to the rescue 1st race - Tampa Bay Downs - January 17, 2007 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 2 Stricks Chairman 101.40 33.60 15.40 4 Drift'n South 6.40 5.00 3 Czech Dancer 8.60 $2 Exacta 2-4 282.60 This one was gettable. I did not notice until too late. The huge favorite here (I will add it's running lines in the follow up post) was not worth a bet as it had NOT contended at all in three trips to the post. AH, but put the magic name up in the trainers box NicK Zito and the crowd just gives up all logic and thinks that this fellow can make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. NONE of these animals can run and in really horrible fields like that you look for those that can run a little to get out front and stay there: LIKE THIS ONE DID. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

01-17-2007, 07:13 PM	#2
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	how could you seriously consider this one? Shows no competitive spirit at all. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

01-17-2007, 07:18 PM	#3
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	the 2 and 6 were both close and one kept on going. Note the big favorite ran just the same way for the fourth time in a row. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

01-20-2007, 07:39 PM	#4
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	happened yet again. In an exacta no less.....didn't see the exotic until reviewing. 8th race - Oaklawn Park - January 20, 2007 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 4 Country Diva 74.20 29.00 9.80 6 Fast Deal 20.20 9.20 8 Tax Refund 3.40 $2 Exacta 4-6 937.20 wow of the top four, three were in the tri too Attached Images __________________ velocititian Last edited by tompkins; 01-20-2007 at 07:48 PM.

01-21-2007, 12:22 PM	#6
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	top line goes in first, then, to miss the chance of sample error, I find another line vs a similar pace for the comparison. Tough to bet on a horse that only showed speed once unless it is the LAST line and the animal is on an improving trend. Philosophy here is to not bet on a horse if it has NOT shown the same energy distribution before. __________________ velocititian

01-21-2007, 08:34 AM	#5
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	How do you decide if you are going to put in multiple pacelines for a horse?

01-21-2007, 09:28 PM	#7
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,655	makes sense thanks

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