Tiers

[admin]

I was asked this in a private message but its easier for me to answer it here

Bill,One thing I doint understand is how do you decide what tier to use?Is it strictly done on a value basis?


The thing that I do now Its a little variation of the binder method

I focus on the top 3 tier as equal ( sort of)
Remember the game show Lets Make a Deal ?
ok each top 3 Tier is Like door # 1 Door # 2 or Door # 3
Monty Hall is BLBL he is asking which door do you want first
of the 3

See the top 3 tiers are equal 1 is not too much better than 2 and 1 is not twice
as good as 3

Ok so I'm the contestant on Lets make a deal
I have to choose two doors of the top 3

They are all similar doors but I have some clues
1. The linescore if I have a big gap between tiers I note that
2. Most times the favorite is in the top 3
were it on the Linescore will often bet the reason I take it or
not
3. The M/l I look at this to see if I have good value in door 1 and 2
4. I am working on betting all horses iin tier 3 that are over 9/2
5. Sometimes I make calls based on the E/L or The APV CR

Yesterday I thought I had a great chance for a nice win

Here is my BLBL from race 9 at Philly

I have 5 9 7 top 3

I bet the 5 I passed the 9 because it seemed like a need the lead
that had poor 3rd frations I went to the 7
Not only was the 7 over 9/2 it was 45/1 !!!
My bets were the 5 and the 7
too bad for me the 4 won and paid $7.60

Here is the BLBL

[tompkins]

In validator, the use of probability convergence was a mathmatical "trick" to bring horses closer together than they would have been on other screens. It was an idea, I was told by the programmer, to get people to consider horses that did not have top line scores as they often won anyway. Knowing that, you can understand why the tiers don't always align with the other evaluations.

Saying that, when they work, the tiers can be powerful: The best thing to do is chart how they project value for the races you follow. At some places they are great or on some surfaces: i.e. Validator always used to have an edge on the lawn.

[admin]

I would not call it a trick I call it a service
Validator and the VDC readouts were made because most people could not
deal with all the readouts and screens on Synthesis
Validator / the V/DC readout was as you say to bring
the top contenders closer together. The original validator
only showed the top 5 total energy horses on the validator/VDC readout
This program was developed in the era of wagercapping
That means hiding low priced horses and betting
the best overlays of your top 3 tiers ON The V/DC readout
Doc made the VDC readout very tight. I have seen races with 3
V/DC # 1 horses Even once in a while 4 horses tied for VDC #1
This was to get people to bet he longer price horses
Why? because it was # 1 -2 However this was no secret or as you say trick
Doc came right out and told users of this program what would happen
as you said He called it probability convergance
Follow Up 75- 88 are good reads regarding Validator V/DC
there is no validator manual

That is true of the validator screen 7
And The V/Dc readout
its not in the BL BL tiers. I have seen many race with 2 or 3 VDC # 1's
I have never seen a three way tie for # 1 BL BL

Bill

[tompkins]

Calling something a trick or a service does not change what it is.

[shoeless]

Bill,You did a really good job of explaining that.Jeff