Sprinters in a route?

[froggy]

With RDSS when you have a sprinter on top how can you tell if he is a looser or a keeper?
Both of these sprinters were the betting favorites.
Saratoga Russell was the odds on favorite and I must believe that he had the lead most of the way (unable to tell because of the fog).
He lost by 38 lengths.

Sportin' Man lead to and coming out of the turn and then lost by over 5 lengths.

Any ideas?

[admin]

Did
Harvey Pack used to always say
Never bet a favorite that is being asked to do something its never shown it can do First time going long ?
The early late numbers are a big help too

[froggy]

Bill,

In these two races the early/late looks (to me) like they are in the ballpark.
Saratoga's med is 67.4 which is in the ballpark.
Sportin' Man's med is 67.9 where as the winner's was 68.6.
Now I realize that these are not their true med energies because the program has already converted them to a route.
Saratoga's raw med using the Energy Generator was 67.55 and Sportin was 68.31.

If I use one of my old mainstream handicapping's rule of thumb which was to see if the sprinter could run the last quarter in less than 24 seconds.
If so then he was a candidate.
In this instance Sport had a 25.2 and Saratoga had a 24.
Now I should like to think that considering the class of races that they were in, these times would have thrown them out.

Do I still need a pocket calculator to determine if the horses that the program selects are able to do what the program suggests?

With Phase III and the Compugraph it was either a go or no go.
I don't seem to remember any maybe.

Froggy

[RichieP]

Frog
What does your "Powerline Indicator" show? Redo both races please using YOUR setup and select each horses best race according to the Powerline indicator please.

Let's let the software do some work here man.

I don't want to post my reads because my setup is different.

Show 2 screens if you can:
1) Tpr
2) bl/bl

[Ted Craven]

Froggy,

I'll respond to those 2 races separately (I did not play either). Re this one, like Bill mentions, I also tend to not take only the face value evidence of a sprint to route projection, and I like to get some more confirming evidence, or a good price. That said, I picked some lines for the horses, leaving in the #7 winner, and it came up on top in Val4 mode:



I notice that the #7 has recently run a 9f route in which it maintained contact with the field all the way and finished 3rd, so I know it can route, though that line looks bad because the winner drew away from the field. The #5 on the other hand projects well in Val4 mode but is an unproven router (and lower odds).

Notice how the Spec160 mode devalues the sprint to route estimation of the #5. One of the things added in the Speculator software (an improvement, IMO) was a better sprint to route projection formula - suggested to Guy W. by a member here (who can speak up if he feels like it...). The #7's sprint to route is similarly devalued but still remains in the top 2 tiered BL/BL with better Total Energy than #5.

I can't say how I would have bet this race off the Spec160 readouts (my preferred style), but at least either Val or Spec modes ranks the winner well.

What was your reasoning for eliminating it from contention?

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Froggy,

Again, per the screenshot below, I believe the Spec mode of RDSS does a bit better job of accurately projecting sprinters than the Val4 mode. Interestingly, one of the other sprinters (Larry) commanded the early pace according to the Segments CBL screen and managed to hang on for 3rd at good odds.



However, I don't have a longitudinal workup of the possible superiority of the Spec vs Val projection formula, only lots of anecdotal evidence. I would love it if anyone could supply such a study, and I will certainly do one myself when I have some better tools (and time) to do so.

Just what it looks like from my point of view...

Ted

[froggy]

Rich,

Here are the panels.
I don't use the power lines to select pace lines.
I use preceptor as I thought it was measuring pace of the horse against pace of the race against final time.

[froggy]

These are the horses in question

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by froggy

Rich,

Here are the panels.
I don't use the power lines to select pace lines.
I use preceptor as I thought it was measuring pace of the horse against pace of the race against final time.

Thanks Frog for the screenshots.

You have the overlaid winner and exacta in a 3 horse cluster that is gapped over the 4th place horse by TEN points on bl/bl. One of those 3 who happens to be the favorite is also trying to do something he has never done before. Go 2 turns.

How does one "know" a horse can/can't route? You can't and all the fancy multipliers etc ain't gonna tell you. We make guesses based on things important to us:

breeding
angles
trainer
etc etc

It's a GUESS and what is a tool we can use to help us when guessing?

What is the PRICE? Am I being compensated enough for this total GUESS???

[froggy]

Ted,

Why did you use a sprint line for the #7 when a route was available?

I was not aware of the projection difference between Spec and RDSS.
I would think that since Spec was a more recent train of thought for Guy that maybe thats why he addressed the projection problem with an improved algorithm.

Just how big of a study would you need?
Extraction and projection, either or both?

I presently am doing one of my own for the month of March for Aqu.
(RDSS vs ENERGY).

And in case anybody thinks a study is easy just try doing a documented side by side for any length of time.

I am very thankful for all of the brains on this forum that help myself and others predict the probable outcome of an contested event.

Froggy