Pacelines

[MIKE1121]

Reading Pace Makes The Race I noticed that the book in its example races ( 30 races ) had the winner in one of the last 3 races ( they only gave ratings for each horses last 3 races ) about 80 % of the time.

My thought is that by only looking at the last 4 races and the horses best paceline of his bottom 6 races ( for a total of 5 pacelines )that I could eliminate some of the clutter but yet maintain the most representative pacelines.Most of the time it seems like I am only looking at the top 2 pacelines anyway, unless its a turf race then I look at all of them.


Has anyone here, done any study on the % 's that each paceline is used?How important are pacelines 5 thru 10 in predicting a horses chances?


Mike.

[lsosa54]

Mike: I don't have stats for you but I like to stay within the last 5. To be honest, one of the last 2 is my focus, unless I truly feel it's not representative. Check out the Santa Anita race I put up in the Handicapping section and that's a typical process for me. The furthest I went back is 5 on one horse, to see what he might do today.

That does not mean I won't go back 10 on occasion if I feel it's representative of what he might do today and I want to see how he stacks up fraction wise. Most times I go back further than 5 and open up the window a bit, it's usually a turf race.

I think Doc himself used one of the last 4 - he tried to stick with last 3 but sometimes he had a reason to go back 4 - but then again, he had no rules. I think I read somewhere that Spencer Toner tracked Doc's paceline selection and said it averaged something like the last 3.8.

I think the last Doc wrote on pace lines is in FU #88, the last one. There is also some early thoughts in FU #29 which are right out of the Yellow Manual, I believe. Check out the Pace Line manual, also.

The biggest thing for me is getting the contenders right. Can this horse do what I'm asking it to do TODAY - class level, dist., surface, and does he look like he's in shape to do it today. Usually, the pace line comes fairly easily once you've decided. Then it's just a matter of input and readout interpretation, but the bulk of my time is spent up front, before the computer.

Another thing I recommend is check out a couple of pace lines if you have doubts like I did on that 10 horse in the race I mentioned.

I do manual input so it's a bit more typing but I'm pretty quick on the keyboard by now, although I am thinking of starting a search for Aodds Super Gold 98, which uses the BRIS numbers and can be exported. The typing does get a bit old sometimes.

[CEW]

Mike..........

Isosa is right about Howard's line selection. He's the only guy that I can recall knowing how far back he went, on the average. Mike Pizzolla was/is a "way back Machine", digging really deep for lines.

But your comment about reducing clutter is a real good way to pinpoint the line. If today is a dirt sprint, and he has 4 or routes or turf races among the last 10, you already have eliminated half the possibilities. Draw a line through those that don't apply and concentrate on what does apply.

My other suggestion is just a matter of developing a style that works for you based on lots of practice. I used to "gravitate" to the line. A couple years later I started taking the best of the last 3 that applied (like Pirco recommended for that last few years they printed the Follow-Up). The last 6 - 8 years I use the old "its the last line unless it isn't", which I learned from Mike Pizzolla back in the 80s. That keeps you from using rules so much and gives your mind a little freedom. Then through practice and redoing, you get the feel for what lines allow your cream to rise to the top.

One thing to add to Mr. Isosa's comments above: when he says to check out more than one line - try it. I do it to an extent on every line selection. But I have my own software that gives me a drop down box showing the total energy and average pace (Factor W) for all 10 lines for all the contenders. Then I click on one, and it becomes my line. Its slick, because it gives me an instant gauge on which line is better than another. When his last line is, say, the best of the last 5, I usually take it. Even if its sloppy or whatever.

Anyway, I've been playing Mountaineer, and that is a real educational track in the winter. Variants in the 30s, 40s, and even 50s !! When I play Florida or California after that - its a much more relaxing process. Like taking off ankle weights after running.

Last Friday I had one of my better days...a $13 horse late at Hawthorne, and then a $ 14 and a $44 at Mountaineer. Why don't they include MNR in more tournaments !! I'll shut up for now. Thanks guys!

Take care....Chuck W

[MIKE1121]

Thanks for the feed back.

P.s. Mountaineer is one of my favorite spring time and summer time tracks becouse of the 40 and 50 variants. These horses often give a false sence of form when they are just the opposite. The dead track gives false bad times and will cause horses to exhibit many lost beaten lenghts, what it really is doing is building them up stamina wise.


Mike.

[Houndog]

I am more willing to go back on the top level classes when choosing pacelines, less inclined to go back on pacelines with the cheaper type of races.

My reasoning has been that I am assuming the top level classes (Stakes, handicaps, etc) are more reliable assuming they are at their correct distance, surface, and can repeat a good performance.

I focus on recent races for the cheaper stock as they are often raced in condition and they maintain their current good form for a limited amount of time.