Mnr Race 5 PP

[Charlie D]

courtesy of http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/trks2day.html and Brisnet

http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/mnrcomp0504.pdf

[Charlie D]

#1 in
#2 Out - Slow Tandem loser
#3 Out - Slow
#4 In
#5 In
#6 Out - Slow
#7 In
#8 In
#9 Out - Slow
#10 Out - Slow

Pace 48 .2 - 74.4

Early #3, #4 and #5 should set this race up for one of the OTE horses#1, #7 or #8

Of the three OTE, #1 would be my selection, as on his first outing for new connections he faced FPLR of 47.6 - 73 finishing 2nd.


All the best

[Charlie D]

Bet #1 and #7 (double figure odds on latter seem very generous to me)

[gl45]

the contrarian approach

09561338176228 MNR #5 $1 Exacta 4,WT,8,9 <none> $2.00 $55.80

[gl45]

you must know your track and:
"Form" determines all other factors, current distance capabilities, current overall speed capability, current pace abilities or "class", etc.. This, in my opinion, separates poor and average handicappers from great handicappers. "Form" is, probably, the hardest of all factors to determine. But, it must be determined, or estimated, for every horse in the race before any other analysis is done, because if you miss a horse's "form" you will miss the other factors, as well, because "form" determines them.

55560713182439 MNR #6 $1 Exacta BX,2,4,8 <none> $6.00 $91.30

[Charlie D]

IBJ, you should post some of that contrarian approach before races

Only thing i got right there were 3,4 and 5 being E

[Charlie D]

#4

Line 2 47 .6 - 72.6

But that was in Slop and not a norm for #4, so i used Line 1

[gl45]

Charlie D,
here's my line selection for the race. As you can see, for horse #4 I selected line 2. My focus on this race was on horse #9, and how the trainer intent did play a major role. Looking at the last 4 races speed ratings for #9, does indicate that the horse is coming to form. Looking deep in the horse chart I notice good races in fastest time, lines 7 and 9.
Trainer ship the horse at MNR 2 race back after 11 days rest, the horse win in a slow time in higher class race and gets claimed. The new trainer give horse few weeks rest. How the new trainer knows if he has a good horse, or a lemon? Well, here it is: in the last race the trainer enter the horse in a 7.5K open race, to see how the horse would respond vs. a better stock shorting the distance. The horse gained 2 positions, and 1.5 lengths at the 2C, and was 1 length off the leader at the stretch, then was eased to the finish in a time a bit shy from his best.
To be contrarian doesn't mean to be a better handicapper, what does mean is not to be afraid to chose a sloppy line or a line off a poly surface.

[gl45]

Charlie D,
Why I don't post before the fact. I did in the past, now I don't have the desire to explain all the nuances of the various whys I selected a particular horse. Respectfully, I think it was erroneous from your part to eliminate #9 being a slow horse.

[shoeless]

Pino,Great job on those races,I dont think it matters if you post before or after a race as long as you show how you did it.Jeff