Arlington Saturday Handicapping?

[Bill Lyster]

Last 4 races tomorrow at Arl - 2 turf races and 2 graded stakes, all routes.

Looking to exchange views on this prior to post. Any takers?

[reckless]

hi Bill:

There are expected showers for Arlington Park with 40 % chqance of rain, according to weather.com. I don't think they'll take the stakes races off the turf (unless it's a severe rain and storm); the poly was made for rainy days so no worry there.

Good luck.

[RichieP]

Morning Bill

Here is Race 8 using best of last 3 comparable.

Screenshots:
1) Entries with Apv and Class Ratings
2) Race Tandems
3) Tpr
4) Bl/Bl

I'll be back after taking care of family things here

[Bill V.]

Aloha Bill

Here is race 10
Just basic Sartin Methodology best of last 3 adjusted speed ratings
Val 4 mode
good skill to you

Bill

"Isn't that the way they say it goes"

[alydar_ David]

AP 10th

You've got three E/EP horses with 8 Quirin Speed Points. That alone indicates an Other-Than-Early scenario to me.

The best closer is #3 Dominican.

#1 Stonehouse should go off a big favorite. He's one of E/EP horses I want to bet against.

#3 Dominican ran well to 6f in his first race since the layoff. He's a 5YO gelding. That tuneup may be all he needs.

Mena is back in the saddle and he's ridden the horse three times, one win and two shows.

At 9/2 he's worth a Win & Place bet.

[Bill Lyster]

Race 8:

The trouble horse for me is the 1 Peach Brew. Only has one turf outing, that as a 2YO. Only has one poly outing and that one shows big increase in TE, but the E/L is about the same as its first turf race, about -4. Just a general comment on this card, but it seems like when horses have poly and turf lines that the poly lines are showing significant improvement, so the concern is - is it the poly or is the horse getting better? I kept Peach Brew in for analysis. Her 90 adjusted SR is up from the 86 4 races ago at Oaklawn. Yeah its a jump, but she's 3 so she should be improving. It all might be a big zero in the end, because her E/L is low for this kind of race (usually mid teens to low negative 20's)

The 7 is another problem horse for me. the 7F race at Kee last out was probably the Beard Course, so the E/L is meaningless (way high) but again the TE is large and could signal improvement. Ultimately I ended up considering all the E/L's under -10 as early pace types most likely to beat each other up.

My pick is the 6 on top of the 1 with the 3-4-8 in the mix for part of it. Small win/place or just place bet on 1 depending on odds.

[Bill Lyster]

Race 10:

Bill,

I kicked the 4 out on the basis of matchup against the 1, because both look to be on front end with 1 faster.

The 8 is the FPLR horse and the line looks great. Its the 2nd start after a layoff and the pace is not likely to be nearly as fast as the last race, so I used line 8. This horse kinda came out of hiding last year at the same time; won the $100K turf race on this day a year ago and I thought that the horse would benefit from a little slower pace. The CPR for line 8 is only a half a point higher, but the late part is better reflecting a little slower front end. Also, using line 8 fits how this horse runs and what I think is the shape of the race. The adjusted SR of lines 1, 7 and 8 are within a point of each other, so my win picks are #8 and #2 with the 1 and 6 as primary place candidates.

[Bill Lyster]

FPLR is the 9:

I set the pace up off the front running style of the 6, but the SEGMENTS screen shows the 9 dominant all the way across. If you look at the VELOCITY screen it confirms that the 9 has better fractions and that the 6 can't keep up. Also I consider it a negative when my visual pacesetter with arguably and EP running style is shown ranked below an SP and an S type runner. Pretty much puts the kabosh on the 6. VELOCITY indicates that the 10 fades after the 2nd call and that the 8 is the only horse that can both keep up and potentially pass the 9 (2F and 3F numbers for 6 and 7 show no ability to run in the middle of the race and not enuf late to pass the 8

So 9 and 8 are my horses here with 7 and 10 as place candidates.

[Bill Lyster]

Giant Oak the 3 has run well as a sustained horse. I have him as the top E/L horse by 4 pts off the CD line 4 back and best LPR, with the 2 and 4 as the other main contenders

[reckless]

hi Bill, every one:

In 8th race I going with and am keying top and bottom with ,, .

I agree with Bill that the 1 horse could be the deal maker at decent odds.

My top pick, the 6 also seems to be a square price as well.

Good luck to all.