The match up ain't balanced, never was

[Tim Y]

I started pace analysis around 1970 with Ray Talbout's (American Turf Montlhy) Pace Calculator. By today's standards it was very crude, the variants were not accurate and one ran into real trouble with shippers. It, like the Sartin methodology, utilized 2nd call and final fraction, BUT it almost gave equal weight to both. In the 80's I graduated to Quirin's pace numbers and had the advantage (over all of those 3 x 5 cards from before) of a Commodore 64 to store that data. That is when review allowed me to see how much MORE important the 2nd call was over final fraction in most all races on the dirt. I brought that experience to Phase III and learned that program showed me the same thing: the DOMINANCE of 2nd call in evaluating pace projections.

In a PERFECT world, the 2nd call would be like the fulcrum of a playground sea saw and whatever "weight" a pace pressure had on either side of the second call would be balanced, equally, by the pace pressure "weight" on the other side. NOT in the real world. As e/l standards for distance predict, this has NEVER been the case.

Utilizing e/l profiling for each distance at each track, and then following up with the studies of e/l relativity it became apparent that early was much more important than late.

When I was a tester for the late Guy Wadsworth, I ran cards side by side using Validator and newer iterations of Speculator. (Tip of the hat to Ted in regards to Tame Dos which saved my pulling out what hair I have left). Time and time again, Speculator proved a far better program in all but turf racing. Since I learned the coding of what the V/DC contained, I can now understand why: turf racing is all about our measure of deceleration. In MOST dirt races, it is an afterthought, particularly in most sprints.

This was before all the syntho-crap became standard, but I am happy to see that energy distributions barely changed at the ONE venue I still play that has Poly: Woodbine. Have noticed, through repetition, that Poly shippers don't fare as well back on dirt anyway and the good thing about Woodbine is that the big shippers there are usually turfers.

Quirin discovered what I discovered and published his findings in Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping. If your horse is coming from more than a few lengths out of it, you are at a SEVERE distadvantage. Energy exertion, lactic acid build up, oxygen debt: the basics of exercise physiology don't change in different species. I have read much the same in studies of marathoners, cyclists, soccer players etc. you use up energy in similar ways to the running thoroughbred. The laws of physiology have been the way they are since time began and never change.

Add a sloppy race course and these differences are magnified: some days at little Fort Erie, all you have to do is find the horse that will be first OUT OF THE GATE and you have the winner over 60% of the time.

We all like Silky, Aldebaran, Lit de Justice as their late runs are exciting BUT they are the exceptions not the norm.

[tom]

1. Not a word in that entire post supported you premise.

2. The match up addresses early horses quite well.

3. Do those who are making money with the match up have to give back the money?

4. Are you aware that many tracks now card races over grass and over artificial surfaces, where early is NOT the key to the mint?

5. Did you not say this week that you cherry pick what tracks you play, to be sure your methodology works there? If Early were the be all end all all the time, why would you have to do this?

Your way works well for you, congratulations.
It is hardly the only way.

[Charlie D]

Mr Crist's article on Inner was very close to the bullyeye and what he suggested in it are imho the reasons for the dominance of horses on or near the lead in most races on Dirt.

On Sloppy you have slop kickback and having sloppy mud thrown in your face as you run may be a deterent to the Off pace horse, thus exaggerating the prominent horses dominance.

On turf, the opposite is probably in effect. ie: hopeless Early turf horses, thus Late dominates that particular code.

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Mr Crist's article on Inner was very close to the bullyeye and what he suggested in it are imho the reasons for the dominance of horses on or near the lead in most races on Dirt.

On Sloppy you have slop kickback and having sloppy mud thrown in your face as you run may be a deterent to the Off pace horse, thus exaggerating the prominent horses dominance.

On turf, the opposite is probably in effect. ie: hopeless Early turf horses, thus Late dominates that particular code.

Just to add, the above does not mean i'm suggesting bet the first horse out the gate or the leader at the 1c or the leader at 2c as that would probably lose people a bit of money. You need to analyse each race on it's own and make the call as to whether you think E or OTE will win todays Match Up